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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 15 2018, 11:38 PM


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From: Dayton, Ohio
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anarchy
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331519 · Replies: · Views: 619

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 15 2018, 11:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Jul 15 2018, 05:20 AM) *
That is one heck of a split around Springfield.

Only thing I can say is there's a pattern change coming this week -- maybe it will yield something more favorable! The current one has done none of us any favors. Derecho season is almost done but late July - early September can surprise once in a while.

Things are certainly wrapping up for the warm season... especially with the outlooks for the next 2 weeks. It's been an insanely inactive year for tornadoes, which surprises me. Always have the fall tornado season. I think we're about due for a nice outbreak but we'd need an April 2011-like November to catch us up to average.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331518 · Replies: · Views: 749

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 15 2018, 11:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 15 2018, 09:17 PM) *
So are some others...then nearly universal wintry east look for JAN/FEB. Heck...CanSips has below normal anomalies for U.S. which I was beginning to wonder if CanSips ever would again.


CANSIPs is a joke for seasonal forecasting.

Yeah, JAMSTEC is about as good as it gets for winter lovers. The down side of that is just that; it can't get any better... which isn't something you would want this far out.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331517 · Replies: · Views: 25,208

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 9 2018, 11:51 PM


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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jul 9 2018, 10:31 AM) *
Dew points are quite suspicious, maybe taken near a coastline?

Also dew points are mixing vertically meaning initiation is very unlikely.

Quite the opposite. It was near Omaha... I think slightly northeast.

I thought the irony of GFS showing 85F dew point was amusing tongue.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331320 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 8 2018, 09:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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unsure.gif

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331282 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 11:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 7 2018, 11:00 AM) *
And actually, that could be quite a prolonged heat wave as the ridging anchored over South Korea and southern Japan looks to stick around for a 5-7+ day stretch...
[attachment=356845:gefs_z50..._npac_37.png]

Another thing to point out is the enhanced Pacific jet. Raging Pacific jet is a phrase more suited for winter, so I'll leave that there, but I believe a stretched/enhanced jet also supports an incoming warm spell.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331261 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 10:18 PM


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Pretty spectacular sounding to see after the heat wave we just had. Cold front really did the job... absolutely no instability in a July sounding. 0.4" PWAT is almost a fifth of what it has been. Edit: just checked, that is a daily record low.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331260 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 12:30 PM


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What a summer it's been already. Still no sign of it letting up for a prolonged period of time in the next 10-15 days.

Will probably be another heat wave (potentially major) a little after mid-July if Hurricane Maria strikes China

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331217 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 12:29 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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What a summer it's been already. Still no sign of it letting up for a prolonged period of time in the next 10-15 days.

Will probably be another heat wave (potentially major) a little after mid-July if Hurricane Maria strikes China

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331216 · Replies: · Views: 1,841

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 10:21 PM


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Another hot one today. Got hotter than the forecast. Up to 95F today... 2nd straight day of 95+ degrees. Dew point was around 71-73F at the time, making the heat index 103F-105F.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331181 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 10:17 PM


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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(styropyro @ Jul 5 2018, 01:44 PM) *
That's actually a 103 degree differential. tongue.gif

Peoria, IL hit -16F in January and 97F in May giving a 113F differential.

rolleyes.gif wow
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331180 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 4 2018, 10:56 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 4 2018, 11:48 PM) *
Have seen it a few times but very rarely check anom maps to know for how long. I did see them in spots in late winter and late spring when we had some warmer times. I just didnt think the model had the spatial gridding to accomplish that.

Yup, same. I don't check temps on GFS that often so I don't know how long this has been going on. Caught me off guard because I didn't think 13km could catch it, also wasn't sure if GFS's physics were good enough.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331107 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 4 2018, 10:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Anyone know if GFS got an upgrade recently or something? Never seen urban heat islands showing up on the model like this before. Maybe a recent upgrade, or maybe it's an old upgrade (i.e., after last summer) and I've never seen this signature before because it only shows up in the summer for some reason?



Here's a sounding in Cincinnati where there's a +5F temp anomaly



A sounding just a bit north of Cincinnati where there's a -2F temp anomaly



Notice the first images latitude was 39.25, the second is 39.5... so not that much further north, maybe a county or two.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331104 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 4 2018, 10:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jul 4 2018, 05:11 PM) *
Mostly Cloudy
96F
36C
Humidity 46%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.19 in (1021.9 mb)
Dewpoint 72F (22C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 105F (41C)
Last update 4 Jul 4:53 pm EDT

Happy to change highest temp of the year from 94 to 96. Still hoping we can make it to triple digits but I'm not getting my hopes up high.

Edit: just realized... we hit -7 in January... 96 in July... that's 1 degree away from being a 100 degree differential. mad.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331102 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 11:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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A nice ridge is going to build over the central latitudes of the US. A strong jet stream will exist on top of the ridge and disturbances may roll through the area, which may spill over to east or northeast quadrants of the ridge. Feels like a good setup for MCSs.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331004 · Replies: · Views: 749

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 10:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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ILN has mostly sunny and 95 for tomorrow in Mason. Oh boy.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331003 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 10:18 PM


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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jul 3 2018, 11:12 PM) *
We hit 90. Burrrrly lol.

Official CVG 3 day history says only 89 so I can't count it... sad.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331002 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 08:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(chances14 @ Jul 2 2018, 11:15 PM) *
and i remember some folks who thought the cold pattern during the spring would never break and it would be a year without a summer rolleyes.gif

this week of heat and humidity with no ac has taken its toll. can't wait until fall when temps are back in the 50's and 60's

laugh.gif Thankfully in the future we can use this year as an example of how a persistent pattern can literally flip.

This pattern has been pretty impressive. But I'm not ready for it to be over yet. Not ready to go back to long sleeves and coats.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330998 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 08:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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I saw the most classic, textbook multicell thunderstorm today. It was great. You could clearly see the dissipating thunderstorm, which was clearly raining itself out, and the new thunderstorm... a lot like this

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330997 · Replies: · Views: 1,841

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 2 2018, 09:45 PM


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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jul 2 2018, 10:36 PM) *
Airport recorded a 92 after the slight rain cooled air. Then it dropped off again with more rain.

Mid-70s dew point. Definitely felt it.

The high temp overachieved by 8 degrees... or at least I'm pretty sure the forecast high was 84.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330931 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 1 2018, 07:02 PM


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Got up to 92F by 1PM today before the clouds and storms rolled in. Really was only a matter of time.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330871 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 30 2018, 11:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 1 2018, 12:11 AM) *
After the May and June we've had... oh man.

Speaking of which... wow.




  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330808 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 30 2018, 11:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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After the May and June we've had... oh man.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330807 · Replies: · Views: 26,244

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 30 2018, 10:27 PM


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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jun 30 2018, 12:43 PM) *
Hey Cliche, would you mind seeing how many 90+ days we had last year?

I saved the tally I kept from last year. I saved the tally from 2016 too, but I used KHAO which is frequently warmer than KCVG. Needless to say, I trust CVG more than a small airport in the middle of semi-rural Ohio.

QUOTE
Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330805 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 30 2018, 12:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Current watches/warnings as of 1AM eastern/12AM central



Most recent observations. Still 90 degrees in eastern MN as of Midnight. That's absurd. Honorable mention is the upper 70 dew point in Illinois. That must feel nice.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330765 · Replies: · Views: 3,104

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