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> April 26 - ? Plains/MW/OV Flooding, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
CentralIllinois
post Apr 22 2017, 02:35 PM
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quasi-stationary jet/stationary front should setup bringing a good shot at a flooding event somewhere in the region.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 23 2017, 02:08 AM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Apr 22 2017, 03:35 PM) *
quasi-stationary jet/stationary front should setup bringing a good shot at a flooding event somewhere in the region.


Seems to happen at least once a year across the midwest region, location seems to vary from time to time. Wish we could really get in on one of these events around here to cash in on some rains, I shouldnt be too hasty since we very well could with a tropical feature in one sitting with constant ridging along the eastern sea board.


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snowlover2
post Apr 23 2017, 11:03 AM
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WPC 7 Day QPF
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This post has been edited by snowlover2: Apr 23 2017, 11:03 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 23 2017, 01:58 PM
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Euro has almost a foot of rain for KC. blink.gif


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 6/19/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 15 (Last: 6/19/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
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High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Apr 23 2017, 02:30 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 23 2017, 02:58 PM) *
Euro has almost a foot of rain for KC. blink.gif

Euro must be slower with everything than the GFS?


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 23 2017, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 23 2017, 03:30 PM) *
Euro must be slower with everything than the GFS?

Very heavy storm training from Saturday into Sunday associated with the warm front/stationary front



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 23 2017, 02:44 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 6/19/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 15 (Last: 6/19/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
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Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 24 2017, 02:20 AM
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New Euro has less rain for KC area... about 9" less... but there's definitely still a significant flooding threat elsewhere. There's isolated patches of 6"+ in Missouri and the states surrounding it. There's a maximum of 9.87", and I believe this is just north of STL.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 6/19/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 15 (Last: 6/19/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 24 2017, 06:22 AM
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With the maples dropping their seeds(helicopters), be a good idea to check them gutters

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WeatherMonger
post Apr 24 2017, 01:13 PM
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Quite the placement difference between the NAM and GFS

NAm at 84 total QPF


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GFS same hour


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GFS event total


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CentralIllinois
post Apr 24 2017, 01:18 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 24 2017, 01:13 PM) *
Quite the placement difference between the NAM and GFS

NAm at 84 total QPF


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GFS same hour


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GFS event total


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00z EURO is on the GFS side so I'd say 3"+ is very likely at this point


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 24 2017, 01:31 PM
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Southern MO gets slammed on Euro. Majority of it gets 6"+, maximum of 9.59".

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 24 2017, 01:32 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 6/19/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 15 (Last: 6/19/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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CentralIllinois
post Apr 24 2017, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 24 2017, 01:31 PM) *
Southern MO gets slammed on Euro. Majority of it gets 6"+, maximum of 9.59".

whats it look like in IL?


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2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 24 2017, 01:35 PM
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Weather.gov(NOAA) down for everyone

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 24 2017, 01:35 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Apr 24 2017, 02:34 PM) *
whats it look like in IL?


Central IL gets about 3-4", up to 7" in southern IL


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 6/19/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 15 (Last: 6/19/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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CentralIllinois
post Apr 24 2017, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 24 2017, 01:35 PM) *
Weather.go(NOAA) down for everyone

yes
QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 24 2017, 01:35 PM) *
Central IL gets about 3-4", up to 7" in southern IL

Thanks! for the info looks like i'll need to buy a new rain gauge since mine cracked over the winter rolleyes.gif


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2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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snowlover2
post Apr 24 2017, 03:00 PM
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Looks like some heavier rain totals moving into western Ohio now. By heavier I mean the 2" area.


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WeatherMonger
post Apr 24 2017, 05:18 PM
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Latest WPC 7 day QPF

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CentralIllinois
post Apr 25 2017, 12:49 AM
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00z GFS and CMC
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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snowlover2
post Apr 25 2017, 01:10 AM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Apr 25 2017, 01:49 AM) *
00z GFS and CMC

Your GFS image is from the 12z run.


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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2017, 07:16 AM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Apr 25 2017, 12:49 AM) *
00z GFS and CMC

Here was the 0Z GFS. As far as the CMC, how much of that was ice? laugh.gif

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