Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

30 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> February 24-26, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm OBS, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST and OBS
phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:10 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,424
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Opening a thread for this proverbially rain storm. Will assume rain storm for now, but last 2 runs of GFS not set in stone yet:
6z GFS:


0z GFS:


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Feb 16 2017, 04:51 PM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:11 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,424
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





0z GFS PARA:



0z CMC:


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Feb 14 2017, 11:11 AM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 11:13 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,349
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





The title literally says "rainstorm".

Wow.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:13 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,424
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 14 2017, 11:13 AM) *
The title literally says "rainstorm".

Wow.

I can change it if need be but.....


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:41 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,424
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Figures I open the thread and the storm goes poof on the 12z GFS.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 01:21 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,349
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 11:41 AM) *
Figures I open the thread and the storm goes poof on the 12z GFS.


Maybe "Tranquil Period" should be added to the title.

laugh.gif

I'm just yanking your chain. Have a good day. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
goblue96
post Feb 14 2017, 02:08 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,705
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Selkirk, NY
Member No.: 20,500







--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 02:16 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,424
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(goblue96 @ Feb 14 2017, 02:08 PM) *

Not according to the 12z GFS. laugh.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Feb 14 2017, 02:37 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,684
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 11:11 AM) *
0z GFS PARA:

0z CMC:

NJ gets flooded via CMC, 6" of rain, that God it's the CMC at 8 days out! rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by LUCC: Feb 14 2017, 02:37 PM


--------------------

Winter '16-'17
3/14 - 7"
3/10/17 - 3"
2/9/17 - 4.5"

1/6-7/17 - 6"
1/5/17 - 2"

Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
goblue96
post Feb 14 2017, 02:48 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,705
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Selkirk, NY
Member No.: 20,500





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 02:16 PM) *
Not according to the 12z GFS. laugh.gif


Attached Image


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SteelerFan420
post Feb 14 2017, 03:07 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 514
Joined: 3-January 16
From: South Central PA
Member No.: 30,729





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 11:10 AM) *
Opening a thread for this proverbially rain storm. Will assume rain storm for now, but last 2 runs of GFS not set in stone yet:
6z GFS:


0z GFS:

Looks vicious! Better get the boat tuned up, anybody in harm's way is gonna have areal flood


--------------------

Red sky at night, sailor’s delight.
Red
sky in morning, sailor’s heed warning!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 03:10 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,424
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(SteelerFan420 @ Feb 14 2017, 03:07 PM) *
Looks vicious! Better get the boat tuned up, anybody in harm's way is gonna have areal flood

Could use any form of precipitation, I don't want a repeat of last summer again.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2017, 05:39 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,685
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 03:10 PM) *
Could use any form of precipitation, I don't want a repeat of last summer again.

18z GFS brings precip back - in the form of rain showers at least.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
yamvmax
post Feb 14 2017, 05:39 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 570
Joined: 9-March 14
From: Stony Brook NY
Member No.: 29,368





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 04:10 PM) *
Could use any form of precipitation, I don't want a repeat of last summer again.

Very true. Same here.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2017, 05:42 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,685
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Last 6 GFS runs - try not to become nauseated while viewing (click to animate)

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 14 2017, 05:42 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
clindner00
post Feb 14 2017, 06:43 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,360
Joined: 14-February 09
From: Claysburg, PA
Member No.: 17,586





why do we have a thread opened for a rainstorm but not a snowstorm on March 2nd at hour 372 of the gfs?!?!? lmao! it's only 2 and a half weeks away and about 60 gfs runs away! 😃
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
goblue96
post Feb 14 2017, 06:45 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,705
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Selkirk, NY
Member No.: 20,500





QUOTE(clindner00 @ Feb 14 2017, 06:43 PM) *
why do we have a thread opened for a rainstorm but not a snowstorm on March 2nd at hour 372 of the gfs?!?!? lmao! it's only 2 and a half weeks away and about 60 gfs runs away! 😃


LOCK IT IN!!!!!!


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 07:51 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,349
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





EAR has some storminess .. a bit of phaseyness (north of MidAtl most likely)

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 07:58 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,349
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





12z GEFS, decent storm signal. Lots of differences on placement of low's, high's and strength's (of course)

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 08:08 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,349
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





RRWT .. currently 52 days is pretty hot .. so, 2/24 - 52 days = 1/3 .. showing 1/4 and 1/5 (what's a few days between friends)

Attached Image


Attached Image



http://www.organicforecasting.com/rrwt-for6.html

Attached Image

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Feb 14 2017, 08:09 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

30 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 30th March 2017 - 01:33 PM