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> Jan 2nd-4th GL/OV LES Snow., Possibility: Medium Range (4-7 Days Out) Forecasts
HassayWx2306
post Dec 29 2011, 02:03 PM
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hinting it. Figured we would get a jump Start on the NW Flow LES Event to happen right after the new year. First Prolonged event coming.


Here is NWS in CLE write up



CODE
000
FXUS61 KCLE 291724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1224 PM EST THU DEC 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER S WI/N IL WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE E THIS
AFTERNOON JUST N OF THE LAKE. AS IT DOES OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM
THE SW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER W OH WILL TRANSITION OVER INTO ALL RAIN BY MID DAY AS
LOW LVL TEMPS WARM. FURTHER E WE WILL SEE THE P-TYPE SLOWER TO
TRANSITION AS LOW LVL TEMPS BELOW FZ. N CENTRAL OH COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH NO EXPECTED ACCUMULATION THROUGH EARLY AFT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS ARE INTERMITTENT SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH TOTAL RAINFALL...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON
AVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT IN THE W OVERNIGHT IN THE DRY
SLOT BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A SECOND CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF THE NW SLIDES OVER THE LAKES
REGION FOR FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NWRN OHIO COUNTIES BY 12Z FRI
SO A SMALL CHANCE POPS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS NRN OHIO. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 850MB TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST RAIN. LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2C
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SO A MIX/CHANGEOVER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE
THE MIX MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHEAST BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS START THE DAY +4 TO
+6C (NAM) AND -2C TO +2C (GFS) AND DROP TO -10 TO -12C (GFS) BY
EVENING SO WILL HAVE PRECIP MAINLY SNOW. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING LAKE EFFECT COULD BE STARTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA AND -12Z OVER THE LAKE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE/CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW LAKE EFFECT AREAS AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-14C...AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

[b].LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE OVER THE AREA MON. SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MON
INTO TUE BEFORE THE SHSN TAPER OFF LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY ARRIVES. WARM ADVECTION LIFT FOR WED MAY HAVE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.[/b]

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK WARM FRONT NOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SNOW WILL
TRANSISTION TO RAIN AND THEN AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH SKIES WILL
SCATTER OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR. RIGHT NOW THE RAIN
SNOW LINE IS JUST EAST OF TOLEDO.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NE OH/NW PA.
NON-VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY IN SNOW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH THEN SW FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SCA FOR THE EAST HALF WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES WSW
AND ALLOWS 4 FOOT OR BETTER WAVES TO REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
FLOW MAY DIMINISH SOME FRI THEN LOOKS TO INCREASE BACK TO SCA
STRENGTH FRI NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW. WEAK RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SHOULD LIGHTEN THE FLOW FOR A WHILE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUN. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THEY SHIFT FROM SW TO WEST
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS


Source

GFS. that idea of the GFS goes on for the next 36 hours like almost all the models. no need to post all imgages
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josh_4184
post Dec 29 2011, 02:53 PM
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Com'on LES!!!!

Pretty said its taken until the New Year to see the possibility of the first widespread LES event, but I guess its better than never.
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Dennisg
post Dec 29 2011, 03:49 PM
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Update from NWS Cleveland:
QUOTE
MODELS INDICATING A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.
THE LOW INTENSIFIES SUN NT OVER THE REGION AS BITING ARCTIC AIR
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS FAVOR A CLASSIC LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FROM SUN NT THROUGH TUE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO REFINE WITH
THIS PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF MODEL RUNS BUT FUTURE
HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY. FROPA WILL OCCUR ON SUN WITH A NON-
DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE...FOLLOWED BY WINDY RAW DAY ON MON. NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH IN ROBUST CAA REGIME UNDER
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -14C...WHICH WITH THE
LAKE STILL AROUND 4C WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUN NT INTO MON
BEFORE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRES START BUILDING IN FROM THE W.


Source
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CMeyers
post Dec 29 2011, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE(josh_4184 @ Dec 29 2011, 02:53 PM) *
Com'on LES!!!!

Pretty said its taken until the New Year to see the possibility of the first widespread LES event, but I guess its better than never.

There's going to be a pretty strong northerly component to the wind field which will probably keep the heavy accumulations close to the lake. I'd imagine you'll get some squalls and showers (especially from the bands streaming from Superior and then across northern lake Michigan) but I think accumulations over an inch or two will probably be saved for Kalamazoo on westward.

This is my first winter here in Paw Paw so I'm somewhat curious what the favored wind direction is for me as far as lake effect goes. Never really paid too much attention to how much lake effect Paw Paw got in particular flows, so this will be a learning experience. Sure looks good to me. Obviously the 1' type totals will be closer to the lake but I'd imagine 6"+ is not unreasonable for me out here. Hopefully my feelings are correct. We'll see.


--------------------
ChsChargers09 - Please be aware that there is a significant chance I was being sarcastic in the above comment. Thank you.
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 29 2011, 04:15 PM
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QUOTE(Dennisg @ Dec 29 2011, 03:49 PM) *
Update from NWS Cleveland:
Source

Sounds AWESOME!

Wish I were up there to enjoy it biggrin.gif
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josh_4184
post Dec 29 2011, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(CMeyers @ Dec 29 2011, 04:06 PM) *
There's going to be a pretty strong northerly component to the wind field which will probably keep the heavy accumulations close to the lake. I'd imagine you'll get some squalls and showers (especially from the bands streaming from Superior and then across northern lake Michigan) but I think accumulations over an inch or two will probably be saved for Kalamazoo on westward.

This is my first winter here in Paw Paw so I'm somewhat curious what the favored wind direction is for me as far as lake effect goes. Never really paid too much attention to how much lake effect Paw Paw got in particular flows, so this will be a learning experience. Sure looks good to me. Obviously the 1' type totals will be closer to the lake but I'd imagine 6"+ is not unreasonable for me out here. Hopefully my feelings are correct. We'll see.


I usually snowmobile towards allegan county and sometimes in the Paw Paw/Lawton trails, with this setup I see both areas doing pretty well from past experiences. Usually directly on the lake doesn't do as well as 10-20 miles in land does, now if the wind stays more N-S that could have some impacts, but a NW WNW wind will push plenty of bands inland to allegan county and south west towards Paw Paw ,etc. Plus with the strong artic air I don't see this as a localized hit or miss where one area gets 6+" and then other areas near by get a dusting. It wouldn't surprise me to see wide spread areas of 4"+ in areas along and west of 131 in south western Michigan.
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hckyplayer8
post Dec 29 2011, 07:16 PM
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Weenie of the Year Nominations due in tomorrowish. Click the link in my sig.


--------------------
The opinions in my posts are of my own and do not represent those of the USAF.



Grand Forks AFB 2015-2016 Snowfall - 28.85" 52 days of trace






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OhioBlizzard
post Dec 29 2011, 09:03 PM
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yea everything looks primed for a pretty nice episode. 850's look good, shear looks minimal, and low level moisture should be good. should be some good totals out of this one. 1'-2'+ not unreasonabe at all for some locations


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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snowlover2
post Dec 30 2011, 02:38 AM
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I've noticed with each GFS run today that my snow total has increased each time. It was 2 tenths of an inch on the 6z run and is now up to almost an inch on the 0z run. I don't believe it takes ratios into account so i'm feeling good about seeing a nice covering of snow out of this here.


Source


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.0" 12/29-30/17

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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Ilovelakeeffect
post Dec 30 2011, 09:14 AM
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Downwind of Lake Erie, does this predominately look like a NW, N or WNW flow? Last year when we had the outbreak in early/mid December, it was more of a NW, and we ended up getting hit pretty good in Medina County.
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eceww
post Dec 30 2011, 09:21 AM
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Looking like a great setup for a lake effect dumping. With the relatively warm open waters of the great lakes it looks like anyone E or SE of a lake will receive a healthy accumulation of powdery snow. The winds however could limit accumulations as they blow it around. The alignment of the winds across Superior and Michigan could help enhance snow East of there.

Here's what KBUF says;

QUOTE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GROW PROGRESSIVELY COLDER. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT WIND DIRECTION...BUT THE MEAN FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 12Z GFS/EURO/GGEM ALL FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO -20 TO -24C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. OUTSIDE OF THE BITTERLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE TO WIND CHILL...THIS ALSO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT SO FAR THIS SEASON. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF FETCH...THE SHEAR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OUTWEIGH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED CAPE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE...AND PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. SNOW SHOULD BE VERY FLUFFY...WITH 30:1 RATIOS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THIS SAID...NOT ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS PATTERN. TYPICALLY...SE OF LAKE ONTARIO (WAYNE/OSWEGO/CAYUGA) AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW IN THIS PATTERN. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO BEARS WATCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHERN SHORES...INCLUDING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS...AND FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
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Ilovelakeeffect
post Dec 30 2011, 09:34 AM
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CLE mentions thundersnow in their AFD.
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LEinCLE
post Dec 30 2011, 11:24 AM
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Here is the CLE NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook posted for the east-of-Cleveland primary snowbelt.

One thing is for sure, the forecasters will get it wrong in some respect. Given the awesome nature of LES if you're not slated to get some you still could get pounded. Likewise, unfortunately for some, if they forecast you to get nailed you could get none! Sounds like primary and secondary snowbelts be prepared. Bring it on!!!

QUOTE(NWS CLE @ Dec 30 2011, 09:34 AM)
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
946 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2011

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-311500-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
946 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT SUNDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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nkovatch85
post Dec 30 2011, 12:22 PM
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KIWX already putting out a Special Wx Statement on the event. I miss Northern Indiana sad.gif

QUOTE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1044 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2011

INZ003>008-014-016-MIZ077>080-311000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-MARSHALL-
KOSCIUSKO-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOL
...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...PLYMOUTH...BREM
N...CULVER...
WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON
1044 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2011 /944 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2011/

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
IN MICHIGAN THIS INCLUDES BERRIEN...BRANCH AND SAINT JOSEPH
COUNTIES....AND IN INDIANA...SAINT JOSEPH...ELKHART AND NORTHEAST
LAPORTE COUNTIES. THESE AREAS MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
OF SNOW...ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT OVER SECTIONS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 94...AND
HIGHWAYS 6...12...AND 20.

IN ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL...VERY COLD
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD AIR...IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.


--------------------
I wish every day was either a PDS Tornado Watch or a Blizzard Warning...or both.
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josh_4184
post Dec 30 2011, 12:29 PM
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Accuweather updated their forecast for my sledding areas of Hartford and Paw Paw with 8+ inches expected, heck it even has Battle Creek were I live with 6.8 inches lol, doubt it with a NW flow, maybe their expected it to transition faster to a wnw flow.
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OSUWx2
post Dec 30 2011, 12:34 PM
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Biggest potential snowfall this season for lots is Lake Effect in January. Not surprised its Lake Effect, but rather that its January! huh.gif

Lake Effect usually gets going in early November based on previous years.
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HassayWx2306
post Dec 30 2011, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(Ilovelakeeffect @ Dec 30 2011, 09:34 AM) *
CLE mentions thundersnow in their AFD.


I dont see it? can you post it, and this looks like a Huge event off erie, all the way to pittsburgh
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dsnowchaser
post Dec 30 2011, 01:19 PM
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This maybe a little off topic, I apologize, but I'm thinking of going for a LES snow chase up to the Erie,pa area ... will this be a good spot for this event ?, if not, where nearby? Also I own a Ford Deisel truck (needs to be plugged in) Do the hotels up that way have outlets outside or would i have to have extension cord out my room,Or do I have to be at a "truck" stop . Thanks


--------------------

Northwest of Baltimore, MD
2 miles South of Mason Dixon Line



Winter 2014/15 total (47.7")
Winter 2015/16 total (40")



( Total snowfall 2014/15 - (47.7")
( first accum snow) Nov 14th - .2"
( biggest to date) Jan.18th (4"),Jan 26th(4.5") Feb. 16th 3.25
Feb. 21st (9"), Mar. 5th ( 10.75"),Mar.20th (3.2")
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Gilbertfly
post Dec 30 2011, 03:02 PM
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Blizzard Watch hoisted by Marquette...MQT...

QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
204 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2011

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER NEW YEARS DAY INTO MONDAY
...

.DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THEN TURN TO HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
SNOW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH WILL CREATE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH ONTONAGON COUNTY. THE SNOW AND WIND
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT
.

204 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND
WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


* SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A FOOT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IMPACTS...

* THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS COULD CREATE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE OUTDOORS.

* ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE DUE TO THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING
AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR
VISIBILITIES.


This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Dec 30 2011, 03:03 PM
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Dennisg
post Dec 30 2011, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE(HassayWx2306 @ Dec 30 2011, 12:47 PM) *
I dont see it? can you post it, and this looks like a Huge event off erie, all the way to pittsburgh


QUOTE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C OR SO BY EVENING. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -11 TO -13C BY 12Z
MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. BY TUESDAY 00Z THE GFS SHOWS -14C
OVER THE LAKE AND -20C BY TUESDAY 12Z. A QUICK LOOK AT BUFKIT
SHOWS A RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSITIVE
ENERGY IN THE SOUNDING APPROACHING 600MB IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITH CONVECTION THIS DEEP COULD SEE THUNDER SNOW. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT THE SNOW BELT TO GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SNOW FOR THE EVENT.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

The next AFD should be out soon so there should be more information shortly from them.
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