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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
grace
post Yesterday, 07:37 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 17 2017, 07:28 PM) *
Just noticed you mentioned forcing. Again, too early to tell... but just to address that more properly than showing the SSTs... here's precip anomalies

Forecast this time last year


Forecast now



2016-17 is definitely an analog.

However, it really could go either way. There are reasons to be hopeful for this winter & there are reasons to compare to last year.

One thing for sure...the pattern that has begun developing is a stark difference from last year this time.

FWIW...the trough out west & -PNA last August ended up being a precursor to winter. Hoping what we've been seeing are some hints of this winter.
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grace
post Yesterday, 07:51 PM
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QBO


https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/898312191241224193
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Southern Missour...
post Yesterday, 08:05 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 17 2017, 07:51 PM) *


I thought -qbo - especially easy based ' was a good thing ? I'm confused ... and he didn't explain it very well . Could u pm me your Twitter handle by the way and I will follow you ...
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grace
post Yesterday, 08:11 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Aug 17 2017, 08:05 PM) *
I thought -qbo - especially easy based ' was a good thing ? I'm confused ... and he didn't explain it very well . Could u pm me your Twitter handle by the way and I will follow you ...



-OBO is a good thing. Usually better chance of disrupted vortex in winter & high latitude blocking which Clark is saying -QBO is already causing.

Caution however, 2012-13 was strong -QBO winter...however, it was an exception
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 08:11 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 17 2017, 08:37 PM) *
2016-17 is definitely an analog.

However, it really could go either way. There are reasons to be hopeful for this winter & there are reasons to compare to last year.

One thing for sure...the pattern that has begun developing is a stark difference from last year this time.

FWIW...the trough out west & -PNA last August ended up being a precursor to winter. Hoping what we've been seeing are some hints of this winter.

We were already in Nina thresholds this time last year. We're approaching that status now... probably gonna be another month or two until we get to where we were this time last year.

Forecast from this time last year


Forecast now


The Nina did NOT peak in late December like CFS thought; it was actually early November.

This Nina is starting later, that's already a fact. So will this Nina consequently peak later than last year? What impacts will that have? The possibility of a later peak is why I wouldn't consider 2016-17 a great analog. Since we most likely won't have anything like we had last winter (severe weather kept it interesting enough for me), I'm hoping that we'll have a more Nina-esque winter.

By the way, I'm just assuming this winter is a Nina just out of simplicity sake. It's becoming more apparent this may be another Nina winter, but it's not set in stone yet.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 08:20 PM


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
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- The Great Blizzard of 1978
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2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 8/17/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Yesterday, 08:30 PM
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Not only that...central based Nina +QBO pattern prevailed last winter. No gurantees that Nina will dominate pattern this year.
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bradjl2009
post Yesterday, 08:52 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 17 2017, 08:09 PM) *
Totally agree!!!

-QBO, low solar, completely different pattern versus last year this time

The closest August so far is 2013....no I'm not saying we're headed for 2013-14 winter, but I'm saying the 500mb anomaly patter over the N. Hemisphere is eerily similar. It doesn't mean jack 90% of the time:

August 1-17, 2013

August 1-17, 2017

I've been thinking that myself, the first half of August has reminded me a lot of 2013.
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blizzardOf96
post Today, 10:07 AM
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Should be an interesting and tough forecast with a weird combination of indices.

-QBO/low solar are likely. Then you've got a La Nina on the table.

Wild cards: Nina strength, PDO state, strength of +AMO.


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grace
post Today, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Aug 18 2017, 10:07 AM) *
Should be an interesting and tough forecast with a weird combination of indices.

-QBO/low solar are likely. Then you've got a La Nina on the table.

Wild cards: Nina strength, PDO state, strength of +AMO.



Indeed....good to see you on the forum blizz! Been enjoying your tweets last few weeks also.

Low solar & Nina brings up 2010-11; however QBO was rising in the fall into positive for the winter. If not for the strength of that Nina & the +QBO it would've been a decent analog. It'll be interesting to see what happens during the fall.
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weather_boy2010
post Today, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Aug 17 2017, 08:52 PM) *
I've been thinking that myself, the first half of August has reminded me a lot of 2013.


I have been thinking that as well. Like Grace said, I don't expect it means a perfect correlation, but based on the pattern we've seen developing over the last several weeks, I think our chances for a decent winter are increased at least a bit from the last two winters.

Also, while I am by no means an expert and maybe don't even know what I am talking about, someone suggested a few weeks back that August may at times be an indicator of what will come for winter. So... I took and looked at some data out of Minneapolis (only because that's where I was born and raised) and found that of all the August temp averages that were below average, 67% of the following winters ended up below average as well. While I haven't had the time to look into the conditions surrounding every one of those non-correlated years, the instances I have seen had significant ENSO influences, aka. moderate or strong Nino or Ninas.

Anyway, it seems to me that there are many cards stacked in our favor this year, QBO, low solar activity, early blocking, etc. Because let's be honest, the ENSO is by no means the only thing that should be looked at.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 10:16 PM
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2000-2001 had -QBO, weak La Nina, and weakly positive PDO. It was a heavily frontloaded winter.



June 2000 QBO: -7.83
July 2000 QBO: -13.13

June 2017 QBO: -3.18
July 2017 QBO: -10.48



Breakdown




Only downside I see to this analog is how it's largely based in Nino 3 and 4 (central to west-based). Too early to tell if this Nina will be similar, but I doubt it's going to be that west-based.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 10:28 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 8/17/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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