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> July 18-20 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Moderate Risk: Forecasts and OBS
snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 04:02 PM
Post #121




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Eric Elwell on channel 7 just showed their doppler radar suggesting possible rotation on cell just west of Richmond IN.


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 20 2018, 04:22 PM
Post #122




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QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jul 20 2018, 04:41 PM) *
Omg...whaaaa? Line dying in Northern Indiana...I had no idea! 🙄
This year sucks for weather IMBY...even at this point we get a good boomer.

Instability got pinched off because of the convection down south, and there wasn't near enough time to recover after morning rains. Generally, Northern and Southern Ohio do not fly together in severe weather events. It's one or the other, rarely both at the same time. CLE was right to be skeptical about having the slight risk extended so far east. But the colors are always so pretty on the convective outlooks, I fall for it eeeeeevery time. Especially with those marginal outlines that used to be "see text."

No doubt this is the least active severe weather season for NW Ohio I can ever recall. Don't feel too bad though, I got suckered into thinking the warm front would at least give me a thunderclap or two and it didn't even rain! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by FireworkWX03: Jul 20 2018, 04:23 PM
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2018, 05:07 PM
Post #123




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Looks pretty active in E IN.


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Snow____
post Jul 20 2018, 06:37 PM
Post #124




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 20 2018, 06:07 PM) *
Looks pretty active in E IN.

Them and N. Kentucky have been getting wrecked. Madison Kentucky had tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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NWOhioChaser
post Jul 20 2018, 06:54 PM
Post #125




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*bleep it* make Toledo into a desert at this point.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 06:58 PM
Post #126




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Parameters are absurd across the new tornado watch. 4000-6000 CAPE with 50-70 knots effective shear and strong directional shear. Low-level speed shear is weak, should help keep the tornado threat down a bit.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Snow____
post Jul 20 2018, 07:04 PM
Post #127




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Getting another thunderstorm. It is cold out here! Lower 60s right now.


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Snow____
post Jul 20 2018, 07:08 PM
Post #128




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Looks to be the last hoorah. Good day. Nothing severe but can’t be mad at multiple rounds of thunderstorms. That hasn’t happened in what seems like forever.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 08:08 PM
Post #129




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Discrete supercell southwest of Louisville
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 09:37 PM
Post #130




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Last round of severe convection just popped. HRRR has this being a long-lived squall, traveling south-southeast through eastern Tennessee and all of Georgia in the next 18 hours.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 20 2018, 09:44 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 20 2018, 10:30 PM
Post #131




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Impressive MCD for an overnight severe threat



QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...much of Kentucky...Tennessee...Arkansas...northern
Mississippi and Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

Valid 210320Z - 210515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of severe weather continues across a large area
from AR to the OH river with multiple potential corridors of severe.

DISCUSSION...A strongly unstable and sheared air mass currently
extends from AR to KY, and southward into MS and northern AL. The
synoptic setup continues to be favorable tonight for continued
development with cooling aloft and a jet max diving southeast out of
MO.

Currently, severe storms extend from the front along the OH river
southward across eastern KY and TN where supercells were noted on
radar. These storms are located near the eastern extent of the most
unstable air, but are being supported by west/southwest low-level
winds. Some of these cells may have tornado potential, along with
large hail and damaging winds. The storms to the north along the OH
river are more linear in mode, and clearly contain damaging wind
potential. This line could potentially exhibit QLCS structure at
times.

To the west, a rapid increase of storms has occurred across central
AR, and this cluster will likely persist into MS with mainly a
damaging wind and hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out
embedded within this line.

Meanwhile, middle and western TN has remained free of storms except
for a few showers earlier this evening that eventually turned into
supercells across eastern TN. The environment over middle TN
continues to be quite favorable, conditionally, for supercells,
including the threat of tornadoes. However, there is currently
little focus to initiate storms. That said, cooling aloft persists
and there is little if any CIN. An earlier attempt at a storm was
seen recently across southern middle TN, suggesting other attempts
could follow this evening. Therefore, the area will remain under a
tornado watch.


Convective outlook/watches as of 11:34PM. That cluster in Kansas might produce a nice swath of severe reports... it's got the environment and the forcing


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 20 2018, 11:04 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2018, 11:47 PM
Post #132




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

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Posts: 22,676
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





'meh' verification. North half of moderate risk verified, the rest not so much. MCS/cold pool/redevelopment certainly threw a wrench in the forecast. As for further south, simply nothing took advantage of the insane setup.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 23 2018, 06:10 AM
Post #133




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Posts: 80
Joined: 1-April 18
From: KCAK
Member No.: 32,065





Definitely iffy. I guess ENH is not meant to always verify, although MDT is a little more sketchy in this scenario. I still think the SPC needs to come up with a different naming system, as "enhanced" doesn't naturally come before "moderate"... you can even make a point that it means more than "high" language-wise. Even knowing that ENH is the old high-end SLGT, it still doesn't really fit.

IWX finally had a severe weather day, but Michigan continues their prolonged severe weather shutout. Man.

Looks pretty quiet going forward for a bit outside of the weekend system. After that, probably (almost) safe to declare derecho season over.
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