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WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 02:16 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 9 2017, 08:04 AM) *
expect models to be useless in the 8-15 Day period.

Pretty much the rule I go by regardless, so many storm threads crash and burn laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2257973 · Replies: · Views: 294,282

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 12:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Dec 9 2017, 10:53 AM) *
A Christmas weekend redemption storm would make the frustration of early whiffs disappear...I can't remember the last time there was appreciable snow falling on Christmas Eve/Day around here. We're due!

P.S. - About time for OB45 to create a 'white Christmas' thread! Need to will a storm into existence.

I can remember the last time a Christmas storm was modeled in the long range. Like every year dang near laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2257895 · Replies: · Views: 3,905

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 12:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,351
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Looks like Tuesday will be the next shot at having sub freezing high temp. Not going to happen today either.

Back to the 40's the next couple days
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2257814 · Replies: · Views: 5,096

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 11:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,351
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Dec 9 2017, 09:19 AM) *
Where's Monger with his 'chasing the next carrot' meme? laugh.gif

Not falling for long range threads this year, OBS threads only for me. Can't take the disappointment again laugh.gif


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2257787 · Replies: · Views: 3,905

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 09:17 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,351
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 7 2017, 01:45 PM) *
I am beginning to forget what a winter storm warning is like sad.gif wink.gif

That is rather depressing
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256753 · Replies: · Views: 294,282

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 07:52 AM


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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Yesterday was supposed to be our first day with a sub freezing high, hit 33 degrees. Try again tomorrow.

Temps aren't really that impressive in the forecast here.

I've lowered my expectations any more for measurable snow before Christmas. Not going to fall for long range teases this year. Get to an open OBS thread with models still showing and I might bite.

Hoping for 12" of snow this year, set the bar low and hope to surpass.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2256709 · Replies: · Views: 5,096

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 4 2017, 03:56 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
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Attached Image

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme west central Illinois
Extreme southeast Kansas
Much of southwest, central and northeast Missouri

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to form along a cold front,
and these storms will increase in coverage and strengthen gradually
through the afternoon/evening while spreading eastward. Embedded
supercells and/or bowing segments could produce damaging winds, as
well as a brief tornado and marginally severe hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast
of Kirksville MO to 25 miles southwest of Springfield MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24045.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2255074 · Replies: · Views: 212

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 4 2017, 02:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
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Attached Image

QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

Areas affected...Southeast KS...northeast OK...northwest
AR...southwest to northeast MO...and part of western IL...and
southeast IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041926Z - 042100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
along a cold front advancing east/southeast through eastern KS and
western MO. Damaging winds will be the primary severe-weather
threat into the early evening, with a marginal risk for a tornado,
as storms continue to form along this boundary sweeping across this
region.

DISCUSSION...Despite cloudiness observed on visible satellite
imagery across much of eastern KS and far eastern OK into AR and MO,
there is likely filtered sunshine occurring within thinner areas of
cirrus clouds in eastern KS to western/central MO. This is boosting
surface temperatures to well above normal as dew points climb into
the upper 50s across much of the discussion area, with values into
the lower 60s from eastern OK into southeast KS. As steepening
midlevel lapse rates spread east, with the approach of a central
Plains trough, surface-based CAPE is expected reach near 1000 J/kg
within a narrow corridor just ahead of the front.

Forcing for ascent with the front and as the trough advances east
will further weaken any remaining low-mid level capping evident in
12Z soundings for storms to form. Some deepening of cumulus clouds
has already been noted just ahead of the front in northwest MO to
east-central KS. Effective bulk shear is already sufficient for
organized storms (35-40 kt), though further strengthening of
west/southwesterly 500-mb winds is expected into the evening,
supporting the eastward progression of the cold front across the
narrow instability corridor. This shear combined with vertically
veering and strengthening of winds in the low-levels, per recent
area WSR-88D VWPs, suggests a tornado threat cannot be ruled out.
The strength of the low-level winds favor a risk for damaging winds.

..Peters/Thompson.. 12/04/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...SHV...D
X...EAX...
TSA...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2255065 · Replies: · Views: 212

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 4 2017, 02:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
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Figured why not

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern
Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region, northward across Missouri into
portions of the Upper Midwest, late this afternoon into tonight.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Severe weather categorical and probabilistic areas have been
expanded westward some to account for the current frontal position,
and some lingering uncertainty concerning exact timing of storm
initiation late this afternoon. The axis of strongest pre-frontal
surface heating currently extends northward near/east of
Bartlesville, OK through the Chillicothe, MO area, and seems likely
to provide the focus for strongest storm development through early
evening. Modest boundary layer destabilization is also ongoing
within a narrow pre-frontal corridor as far north as the deepening
surface low center, now near Minneapolis, and severe categorical/
probabilistic lines have been expanded northward through the Upper
Midwest to account for this.

..Kerr.. 12/04/2017
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2255064 · Replies: · Views: 212

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Dec 3 2017, 09:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Dec 3 2017, 12:44 AM) *
This whole situation got me thinking, anyone know what the record is for accumulated snowfall in the OV for a clipper-related system?

Can't remember the year, I know I was on the site though, but there was a clipper that dumoed a broad swath of 6-9" across WI/IA/IL/IN and I think into OH. That's the one that sticks out to me, probably because the last really big clipper. Had lots of winter storm warnings with it, pretty impressive for a clipper.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2254690 · Replies: · Views: 13,688

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Nov 29 2017, 08:49 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253968 · Replies: · Views: 294,282

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Nov 24 2017, 06:22 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
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QUOTE
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
427 PM CST FRI NOV 24 2017

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1966
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253547 · Replies: · Views: 66,333

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 03:26 PM


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This was earlier obviously

QUOTE
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
131 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061-182200-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Including the cities of Bloomington, Normal, Lincoln, Clinton,
Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Springfield,
Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon,
Paris, and Shelbyville
131 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

...Band of snow to move across central and eastern Illinois this
afternoon...

A band of snow will track east of I-55 towards the I-57 corridor
by mid afternoon. Visibilities could briefly drop below one mile,
and up to a half inch of accumulation is possible on elevated and
grassy surfaces. Brief slushy accumulation on roadways is possible
before warm ground temperatures melt the snow. Isolated lightning
strikes are also possible as the narrow snow band tracks across
the region
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253080 · Replies: · Views: 3,750

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 02:14 PM


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So hard to capture on camera. Actually a slush building up on my truck. Had to downsize picture quality to get to load

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253077 · Replies: · Views: 3,750

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 02:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Holy cow, tgis is pretty incredible
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253076 · Replies: · Views: 3,750

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 02:05 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
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Some big fat wet flakes falling here, impressive

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253075 · Replies: · Views: 3,750

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 29 2017, 01:40 PM


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Our first frost ended up being a hard freeze. Got down to 24 where I was hunting. Rather chilly especially when the wind kicked up a bit.

Ended up falling on the average date of the first frost here
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250728 · Replies: · Views: 2,922

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 28 2017, 02:53 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 28 2017, 02:52 PM) *
Had some snow pellets fall off and on today while on deer stand.
Bring on old man winter

This was in Jacksonville, IL. Nit sure if it did in SPI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250585 · Replies: · Views: 4,846

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 28 2017, 02:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,351
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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Had some snow pellets fall off and on today while on deer stand.


Bring on old man winter
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250583 · Replies: · Views: 4,846

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 27 2017, 08:19 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...First Freeze of the Season Expected Saturday Night...

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-272100-
/O.NEW.KILX.FZ.A.0001.171029T0300Z-171029T1400Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-
Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown,
Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville,
Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris,
Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson,
Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
324 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a Freeze
Watch, which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning.

* TEMPERATURE...Low temperatures will bottom out in the middle to
upper 20s Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Any sensitive vegetation left outdoors will likely be
killed by the cold temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250386 · Replies: · Views: 2,922

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 24 2017, 01:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,351
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(grace @ Oct 24 2017, 12:42 PM) *
We had 3" also in NOV, 2014. And then in FEB, 2015 we had an 11", follwed by another 3", 3 days later...followed by a 16" a little over a week after. wub.gif

Here was the 2014/15 winter highlights/records here. February stole/saved the Winter

QUOTE
RECORDS ESTABLISHED DURING 2014:

NOVEMBER:
* 8TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT 36.3 DEGREES

2015

JANUARY -- NO RECORDS ESTABLISHED

FEBRUARY --
* 2ND SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD WITH 22.6 INCHES
* 9TH COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT 20.5 DEGREES
* RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 8.9 INCHES ON THE 20TH
* RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -8 DEGREES ON THE 24TH
* RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE -14 DEGREES ON THE 27TH
* LOW OF -14 ON THE 27TH WAS THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
* RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE 13 DEGREES ON THE 27TH

MARCH -- NO RECORDS ESTABLISHED

APRIL -- NO RECORDS ESTABLISHED
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2250085 · Replies: · Views: 66,333

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 24 2017, 01:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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From: Springfield, IL
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Curious to hear JD's thoughts, or anyone well versed with the Typhoon Rule, on lower 48 implications. IE Severe weather/winter weather placements, timing etc.

I know its not exact, but finally something to look forward to. Really wish the current cold spell woupd have happened when I'm on vacation Nov. 3rd through the 12th.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2250082 · Replies: · Views: 66,333

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 24 2017, 10:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
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I think KSpring killed the thread with the talk of warmth on the first cold shot of the season laugh.gif

Downright chilly today, should be 15 feet up a tree right now
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250063 · Replies: · Views: 2,922

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 24 2017, 10:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
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I'd take a Nuri typed early snowfall. Had 3" day before Thanksgiving back in 2014.

That was the year we awaited the cycle repeat that never came. Think CV set the record for earliest discussion thread, a mere 3 weeks in advance laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2250060 · Replies: · Views: 66,333

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Oct 23 2017, 08:54 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Oct 23 2017, 07:36 PM) *
Just curious, anyone know the earliest recorded snowfall for Columbus, Dayton and Cincy?


All had traces in September. 1989 seemed to be the love for all but Columbus.


Measurable would be October for Cincy

https://www.weather.gov/iln/climate_records_cvg#


Attached Image


For Columbus October as well

Attached Image



Dayton was October as well

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250018 · Replies: · Views: 4,846

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