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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Jan 13 2017, 07:51 PM
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Beautiful today...no rain until Tuesday into Wednesday according to long term...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 718.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 96hr
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 293.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC shows the high finally shifting south with a series of 'atmospheric river' coming in afterwards...
they appear to be on a more northerly trajectory...to start with... dry.gif

So enjoy the dry...it may not last

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 13 2017, 07:56 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 17 2017, 08:39 PM
Post #142




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Breakfast at Tiffany's!
Moon River...Henry Mancini's famous song from the movie is now being redone...sort of... unsure.gif

Atmospheric River as performed 'live' on the West Coast by the Eastern Pacific Ocean "Jets"... dry.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 633.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif More "pineapple express" for all of the fans of 'Hawaiian Pun@h'...
Attached File  d13_fill.gif ( 42.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


Rain for coastal Oregon and Northern and Central California...snow at highest elevations of Cascades and Sierras...(hopefully not rain which could cause devastating downstream flooding...)
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 300.31K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the 96hr OPC surface analysis says...the Band Played ON...and ON...

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 17 2017, 08:41 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 27 2017, 06:34 PM
Post #143




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After three storms and over a foot of rain in some areas...boy are we glad to see sunshine....

Warmer days until Tuesday when the high begins to break down...a storm that will be forming to our west will then make it's way inland bringing chances of rain Wednesday into Thursday of next week...

Depending on upper air patterns this could be the beginning of another rainy period...

But for now high pressure is sending storms 'up and over'...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 722.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


and the 96hr OPC map shows the 'storm' forming offshore next week...

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 307.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


So enjoy the sunshine with cool nights...until the middle of next week...

"El-Lipsis" is 'omission' by definition... huh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 1 2017, 09:33 PM
Post #144




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Rain!
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 675.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


and this low wants to hang around
OPC 24hr surface analysis
Attached File  P_24hrsfc.gif ( 235.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


and around...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 299.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


hello.wave after wave from a large offshore low...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 7 2017, 08:18 PM
Post #145




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Heavy winds and rain again last night all over the Bay Area...localized flooding, landslides and downed trees...the San Lorenzo River in the Santa Cruz Mts. has caused evacuations in the 'usual suspects'...the areas of Felton Grove and Paradise Park where the river flows down parallel to Hwy. 9 headed for the Pacific Ocean where it exits right by the Santa Cruz Boardwalk...

Mud slides have closed Hwy. 17 in both directions for all or part of today...similar closures have occurred in the North Bay in Marin, Marin City and along the Napa River where minor flooding is happening...

Here comes the next storm and it's series of 'waves'...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 597.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


48hr OPC shows the onslaught lasting into late Friday...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 302.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


But 96hr OPC shows ridging (High Pressure cool.gif ) building in...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 300.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


After much storminess and clouds...with deluges of rain...it appears a High will create a strong ridge across California...with another large High building into the Great Basin..

Attached File  9nhwbg_conus.gif ( 28.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


Enjoy the dry weather...starting into the weekend and beyond...(if above WPC map is correct.... dry.gif

This 'El-Lipsis' winter is eclipsing the so-so "el-Nino" of last winter with it's widespread rain and snowfall

Remember...the 'definition' of ellipsis is 'omission' wink.gif

QUOTE
elĚlipĚsis
əˈlipsis/
noun
the omission from speech or writing of a word or words that are superfluous or able to be understood from contextual clues.
a set of dots indicating an ellipsis.


huh.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 7 2017, 08:23 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 10 2017, 08:43 PM
Post #146




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Drying out!...North to South as trough(s) slowly shift east...

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 670.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looks "high and dry" (great 'Radiohead' song cool.gif ) for the next 6 to 7 days...

Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 259.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


But the eventual breakdown of the ridge begins as early as next Thu. into Fri.

Attached File  9nhwbg_conus.gif ( 28.33K ) Number of downloads: 0


Enjoy it while it lasts... biggrin.gif

(we are still on our "om-mission" wink.gif ) 'El-Lipsis' weather signing off.....


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 11 2017, 08:50 PM
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Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 723.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 13 2017, 08:24 PM
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Apology: 'El-Lipsis' weather had an omission of any 'content' when posting the above post... rolleyes.gif

It was called...High Pressure should rule!

As we know...this is not always the case... tongue.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 630.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


we went from a 'dirty' ridge (high clouds)...to a failing ridge...and a big supply of cloudcover... mad.gif

Of course this implies that rain is on it's way...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 290.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the 48hr OPC shows the 'end' of dry weather...likely Wed. night/ as late as Thursday/ for several days...

96hr OPC say another series of 'storms' may be on the way

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 297.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


...perhaps we are in for "A change in the weather"...

unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 18 2017, 06:47 PM
Post #149




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Thursday was great! High 60's and even low 70's! Then Friday went back to the "Cliche"... Atmospheric River

Heavy winds buffeted the Bay Area all morning into afternoon...with steady soaking rains...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 519.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


A slight lull in the intense weather until Sunday night...then another large storm...followed by a 'wave' or 2.

OPC 48hr
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 306.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


QPFs (estimated rainfall totals for next 3 days)
Attached File  d13_fill.gif ( 45.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


Finally by Thursday we should get clearing for a few days (maybe more... unsure.gif ...or ?)

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 306K ) Number of downloads: 0


This shows the 'last' in a series of storms offshore as of Wednesday morning...will the High Pressure build in...

'El-Lipsis' weather is 'omitting' any conjecture of long dry periods..."wouldn't be prudent"
Attached File  Prudent.jpg ( 35.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 21 2017, 06:12 PM
Post #150




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QUOTE(idecline @ Feb 18 2017, 06:47 PM) *
This shows the 'last' in a series of storms offshore as of Wednesday morning...will the High Pressure build in...

'El-Lipsis' weather is 'omitting' any conjecture of long dry periods..."wouldn't be prudent"
Attached File  Prudent.jpg ( 35.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif


More on the way after Saturday... dry.gif

Attached File  p168i.gif ( 46.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


Look to the West...for this is where the storm progress...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 617.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


'El-Lipsis' weather... your source of "omission"... laugh.gif






--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 24 2017, 07:31 PM
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Still dry...albeit some clouds, a cool north wind, highs in the 50's...

Storms to our west seem to be retrograding for time being...small energy will ride the jet into West
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 672.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC pacific 48hr shows discombobulated picture for early Sunday morning... dry.gif
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 285.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


Northern trough may cut in front of slowed southern stream...with high nosing in...cutting-off sub-tropical flow?
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 297.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


El-Lipsis consensus picks... tongue.gif
Warning: these picks are for 'entertainment' only...no wagering please...
Dry Monday thru Thursday...2/1

Rain until March...8/1

Light rain Sat. and Mon. morning...8/5

Light showers on weekend...7/5

Southern Low(s) move in...heavy rain...10/1

Pick'em... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 24 2017, 07:32 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 1 2017, 05:52 PM
Post #152




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Cool, dry weather through Saturday...Colder northern track front looks to come through Sunday...then...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 712.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 287.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


After front moves through everyone in the Bay Area may be singing "Sunshine"... cool.gif

World Party~ "Sunshine"...www.youtube.com/watch?v=BErHAZtF6JE


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 3 2017, 05:26 PM
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Rain...that was the forecast by many...it seems to be more of a shower than rain looking at Water Vapor...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 647.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 48hr doesn't say much either...the bulk of the rain the next week seems headed much further north...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 288.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


By Monday the upper air pattern will have sorted itself out...don't be surprised to see ridging across the West... unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 6 2017, 07:46 PM
Post #154




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Sunday was a day of unstable air...numerous showers, thunderstorms, and some hail...chilly air for California...
Monday is a bit nicer...a few showers with less convection and not too much wind...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 602.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


Lots of moisture still present in the atmosphere...the dry air is compressed by the lingering trough...
it just seems that all of the 'normal' high pressure systems seem to fail to create much of a ridge and are shunted north or south by the amazingly strong Pacific jet...

OPC 48hr shows the eventual breakdown of our brief ridge...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 285.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


again the jet gets buckled and then straightens...sending the beginning of what could be another stream (not quite 'river' wink.gif ) into the West starting next week...perhaps into late March...(mid January redux?)

OPC 96hr shows the weekend storm...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 285.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the eventual 'straightening in the jet stream...let's hope the early spring 'warmth' sends the jet a slight bit to the north of the Bay Area with the major rainfall... unsure.gif

rolleyes.gif ...are they sure?...how about after the 14th of the month?...much to be sorted out...inquiring minds farther East want to know...will it snow?...thunderstorms in tow?...or just so-so?

Excellent weather dilemmas ahead...and "El-Lipsis" leaves much unsaid... unsure.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 16 2017, 08:36 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 16 2017, 08:33 PM
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After our beautiful streak of sunny days...mild to warm weather will end for the weekend...a storm to our west is forming and will batter the dominant high into submission...(especially since the eastern trough has gone to the east) dry.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 615.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


Another even richer system is to the far eastern Pacific...

OPC 48hr shows our Saturday night system...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 292.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


and two days later the arrival of what could be another 'series' of Pacific jet directed storms...bullseye California?...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 295.26K ) Number of downloads: 0


Could be a very wet week ahead....

QPF's for the #'s people...
Attached File  p168i.gif ( 41.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif Hello to more Pacific storms...and associated severe weather in the center of the CONUS...

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 16 2017, 08:34 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 22 2017, 07:09 PM
Post #156




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Heavy, heavy downpours on Tuesday night in the Bay Area...clearing until next storm...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 649.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 48 hr shows possible Friday storm...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 281.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


and is big storm in central Pacific headed towards us...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 285.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


or just glancing blow with giant low forming in much of the N. Central Pacific Ocean...buckle in the jet?

...El-Lipsis weather is omitting information until things become clearer...(next week? dry.gif )


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 24 2017, 07:07 PM
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More rain through tonight...into tomorrow morning...another storm in the queue for Sunday night...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 641.06K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 48hr shows approaching storm
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 283.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


Massive low in central Pacific seems to go north...letting ridge build in...not much confidence in HP lately...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 279.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


Not much rain after Tuesday? Will the 'buckle' tighten the flow once more? Will there be one more storm series for the first week of April?

El-Lipsis weather is counting on the strong Pacific jet to rule the roost until the end of April...albeit more northerly track...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 28 2017, 08:00 PM
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Bright and sunny today (Tue.)...persistent winds from the NW all day...highs in upper 60's and 70's...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 631.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


El-Lipsis weather sees one flaw in our extended weather forecasts...High pressure has been weaker and centered more to the west than usual this entire wet season...ridges tend to bow south as the screaming jet and strong Pacific storms continue to erode what would 'normally' dry.gif (ha...what is 'normal'?) be very strong persistent 'domes' of high pressure...even the 48hr OPS shows the 'weakness'...possible light showers in far Northern California Thursday...with a quick transition to a likely 'wind event' over much of the State as a strong low builds over the Colorado Rockies...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 294.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


This should 'pump up' our western ridge for several days...and leave in its wake a thermal 'trough' along the California coast...the position of which will determine next weeks weather and the amount of fog intrusion into the Bay Area from our cool Pacific Ocean waters offshore...
OPC 96hr: (take this with a grain of salt...the 'puters are having a hard time with Pacific 'energy' this year..
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 275.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


For those who enjoy mild Spring days with plenty of breezes...this should be your "cup of tea"...

Attached File  download.jpg ( 9.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Enjoy!


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 29 2017, 07:15 PM
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Editorial by idee of El-Lipsis weather(not intended to be anything more than idee rant#23,009)... dry.gif

As El-Lipsis stated yesterday...the High Pressure is 'softer' than average...instincts say that with a very vigorous and persistent Pacific jet for the last few months...that the 'highs' have been repeatedly 'bumped' out of the way...it appears that the upper air high positions are more southerly based this year...with an oblong orientation (E-W)...rather than the 'typical' stronger (N-S) orientated highs that pop up in a 'typical' California winter and spring...El-Lipsis still believes that the 'unusual' unfolding of last years El-Nino has left a lot of warm waters that have helped in the California 'atmospheric river' storms...and in Peru's anomalous flooding rainfall recently...

Here is today's AccuWeather WV loop...a lot of 'progression' in the atmosphere in one day...and the high wilted...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 621.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


Big low in North Central Pacific ocean will slowly move up and over...again...
OPC 48hr surface...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 295.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


...ta da...and we know what happens next...zonal perhaps...
OPC 96hr upper air (500mb)
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 239.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


just saying...not gonna mention the 'Atmospheric River' alert as of yet..."wouldn't be prudent"

Attached File  post_22866_1487461632.jpg ( 35.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


laugh.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 29 2017, 07:43 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 4 2017, 07:27 PM
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Rain...in April?...for an extended period?...will records for April rainfall be smashed?...

These and other questions 'omitted' by 'El_Lipsis' weather and it's definition of leaving out information... dry.gif

As has been the case this year...our big, buoyant high pressure systems are once again failing...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 643.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


A large surge of Pacific energy is once again being directed at the West Coast and California in general...

A double-barrelled low sitting in the Gulf Of Alaska is going to pinwheel in a sucession of what could be called "atmospheric river" storms if you prefer the 'Met' word of the year for California's rain and storms...

48hr surface OPC Pacific surface map shows the two lows doing a dance in the GOA, and an ominous aim...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 276.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


The first wave will take a day or two to arrive...as it erodes away the HP and brings the jet in alignment with California...

Then the 96hr OPC upper air shows the 'freeway of upper level winds...and a succession of storms lining up well past the dateline...all the way to other side of the Pacific Ocean..."Gulp"... blink.gif

Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 259.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


They say "April showers bring May flowers"...with California already having an 'amazing' bloom of flowers and native plants and trees...this could get ridiculous...

Attached File  654212580.jpg ( 286.92K ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
A jogger passes between fields of flowers after prolonged record drought gave way to heavy winter rains, causing one of the biggest wildflower blooms in years on March 16, 2017 at Diamond Valley Lake, near Hemet, California. The winter storms brought relief to most of the region suffering years of worsening record drought conditions though aquifers remain very low and would require many more years of heavier than average rainfall to recharge water tables to pre-drought levels. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/03/16/cali...sion-of-blooms/


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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