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> Developing a New Model Forecast "Rule"? (Experimental)
Antm50jr
post Jan 27 2016, 04:09 PM
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Ok folks I have noticed something when comparing weather models....This rule would be just as a progressive test and not actual forecast.

Here it is...when comparing the latest runs, go to a certain forecast date on the run that is at least a week out. For example I'll use the 12Z GFS today for January 4th...then compare with the same model but a week before at the same time. I'll give an example below.


12Z GFS 500mb Heights for February 4th


12Z GFS 500mb Heights for January 28th (week before same time)


Could this 'Rule'/test indicate that the eventual storm track will be further West and stronger? Or could this indicate that future GFS runs will be further West? huh.gif Also maybe a Southeastern coastal event to watch out for?


Notice they are pretty similar. This may not really be a rule, but just something to keep an eye on if this could actually show future trends or even what the eventual outcome of the storm will be depending on timing for accuracy. Hopefully you can all understand this. I will leave more examples of this below if requested. Please refrain from negative or hateful comments, but leave your thoughts! smile.gif

This post has been edited by Antm50jr: Jan 27 2016, 06:06 PM
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Antm50jr
post Jan 27 2016, 04:18 PM
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Here's another example from the 12Z Canadian today for 18Z January 5th.

12Z CMC 500mb Heights for 18Z February 5th


12Z CMC 500mb Heights for 18Z January 29th (week before same time)



Notice how they are still pretty similar. Colder in East though and low is further East also. Note this would all indicate trends or possible outcome for the original date, or January 5th in this case...not a forecast for the 29th. smile.gif

This post has been edited by Antm50jr: Jan 27 2016, 06:07 PM
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Antm50jr
post Jan 27 2016, 04:32 PM
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Last post for now lol. Of course you could always add a week to a forecast date on the GFS, and you could see a trend or eventual solution show up. I'll update to this thread as time goes on and I will be testing and making posts regarding these daily "rule" tests.

Eventually I may even use older model runs to see if I can find a way to hint progressiveness/trends on the models smile.gif
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Antm50jr
post Jan 28 2016, 12:18 PM
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Seems the 12Z GFS is picking up on the "trend" from this progressive rule. Latest 12Z GFS for 00Z February 5th has a 1017 coastal low moving off the coast, which is very similar to the current coastal low we have that will be moving off...I'll show you below.


12Z GFS 500mb Heights for 00Z February 5th


12Z GFS 500mb Heights for 00Z January 29th/Tomorrow (One week before forecast date as this rule states)



Notice how similar these images are. With this progressive "rule" I expect that +/- three days from February 5th, we will have a similar setup with like what see for 00Z tomorrow. This suggests that future runs of the GFS could trend colder for the East, and even develop a GLC or strong clipper system, as well as stronger coastal system possibly. Any thoughts?
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