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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
OSNW3
post May 13 2017, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ May 12 2017, 06:21 PM) *
What happened the other page?


I transferred control of the domain to Joseph Renken. I moved my RRWT stuff to http://www.consonantchaos.com/


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 13 2017, 07:29 PM
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I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z



Pattern valid on 15/00z



I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 13 2017, 07:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post May 13 2017, 09:49 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 13 2017, 12:27 PM) *
I transferred control of the domain to Joseph Renken. I moved my RRWT stuff to http://www.consonantchaos.com/



I loved that page! "If it ain't broke don't fix it."

This post has been edited by grace: May 14 2017, 02:45 PM
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Undertakerson
post May 14 2017, 06:31 AM
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Geez - I hope not

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 264.89K ) Number of downloads: 1
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OSNW3
post May 15 2017, 08:05 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 13 2017, 07:29 PM) *
I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z



Pattern valid on 15/00z



I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif


With regard to recurring atmospheric modes, the ~31st has more grit than the ~27th. Signals are out of phase for the ~27th and weaker than the ~31st which shows some deep purples and phasing among RRWT members. We shall see.

RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/25-29 from 5/4
Attached File  170504150120.jpg ( 303.95K ) Number of downloads: 2


RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/30-6/3 from 5/9
Attached File  170509150120__1_.jpg ( 298.01K ) Number of downloads: 4


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OSNW3
post May 19 2017, 09:47 AM
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In the Recurring Rossby Wave Train pattern correlation phase space, each point represents a possible instantaneous state of the system.



A solution of the governing equations is represented by a point traveling along a trajectory in the phase space. A single point in phase space determines the entire future trajectory, providing a composite of future weather and climate outcomes.



A quick blog entry: Strange Attractor

This post has been edited by OSNW3: May 19 2017, 09:47 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2017, 01:39 PM
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Broad ridge/ring of fire signal coming up on BSR? I've personally never seen this signal before. Then again, I'm often not looking at BSR this time of year because I'm occupied by severe weather.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 22 2017, 01:40 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 27 2017, 07:05 AM
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Now have much stronger agreement regarding the MJO. Expected to pass through phase 2 in 3-4 days.




Last time we passed through phase 2 was May 14. 1 day later began a 5-day severe weather and tornado outbreak, including a high risk in the Plains.

Per BSR, we called today's to-be outbreak in the Midwest. Per BSR, we should be expecting another one in 3-4 days (+/- 2 days). This aligns well with the phase 2 passage. Only thing is... we don't pass through the entire phase 2; we come out of the CoD into phase 2. So I'm uncertain if that matters.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 13 2017, 08:29 PM) *
I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z

Pattern valid on 15/00z

I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 27 2017, 07:06 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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OSNW3
post May 29 2017, 11:37 AM
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A sizable dip for June upcoming in the Great Lakes per BSR.






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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2017, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 29 2017, 04:58 PM) *

The 30 day SOI has been a tale of 2 halves. First half was quite negative... neutral... now generally quite positive. Indicates a pattern change from Nino-like to neutral ENSO or even Nina-like, especially just past mid-month. I believe there's something like a 20 day lag with SOI. The SOI dip from May 22-26 appears to be supportive of Josh's latest post here, but warmer weather may come before and especially after that spell



This post was solely based on SOI... not saying it will correlate over what BSR/EAR are showing (if they are conflicting)

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 29 2017, 08:59 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2017, 08:58 PM
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TR/EAR is somewhat conflicting.

Trough over Japan persists from May 31-June 4, which correlates to eastern trough June 7-11 (+/- 2 days).

Pattern flips June 6, which correlates to June 13. Implies a cooldown for a few days after that due to trough moving east.



What happens after that is unclear by using TR/EAR due to being way too far out.

BSR isn't my thing for non-severe weather implications. I'll leave that for UTS, Josh, and JD.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 13 2017, 10:08 PM
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Large Bering ridge showing up in the long-range. I wonder if it has anything to do with the upcoming enhanced trades around the IDL wink.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 16 2017, 10:02 PM
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Wet start to August? Stationary front setting up along the Aleutian islands, which would roughly correlate to the lower Midwest.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 22 2017, 10:40 PM
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blink.gif





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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weather_boy2010
post Jul 24 2017, 02:28 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 22 2017, 10:40 PM) *
blink.gif




Yuck.
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jdrenken
post Aug 1 2017, 09:00 AM
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Dr. Lupo and I have submitted a new SOI abstract and are finishing up our BSR/EAR paper revision request. The break from social media as a whole has been a godsend. On a side note....SOI link isn't even close to 30 days via the data we are finding.


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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 1 2017, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 1 2017, 10:00 AM) *
Dr. Lupo and I have submitted a new SOI abstract and are finishing up our BSR/EAR paper revision request. The break from social media as a whole has been a godsend. On a side note....SOI link isn't even close to 30 days via the data we are finding.


You've missed us. Glad you're back from your nerdery.


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OSNW3
post Aug 5 2017, 05:11 PM
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I broke my Bering Sea Rule model down to the basics. A simple idea to build on to make it a user friendly and valuable tool. It is on GitHub if you are interested in toying around with it or advancing the current platform code or have the desire to bring it to a different platform and expand on it. There are so many directions it can go. Let's have some fun and collaborate!

The BSR is first, then the EAR, then the SOID, then the RRWT after the Rodeo contest is complete.

GitHub: https://github.com/osnw3


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OSNW3
post Aug 5 2017, 05:23 PM
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http://consonantchaos.com/f-msc.html


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weather_boy2010
post Aug 7 2017, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 1 2017, 09:46 AM) *
You've missed us. Glad you're back from your nerdery.


laugh.gif

Glad to see you back also Joe! I like this time of year because I can start looking forward to my favorite seasons, fall and winter. Oh, and everyone slowly starts trickling back into the threads...
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