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jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 02:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 16 2017, 01:04 PM) *
So euro says what Baja cutoff?


Gfs same time



The cooks still be cooking
Verification drop like a bomb on this one I presume


Purely subjective because, in the end, it won't matter as EPS is king.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2261111 · Replies: · Views: 22,531

jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 02:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Can't help but laugh these two are acting like they called a late 6-8" bloomer.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2261108 · Replies: · Views: 12,374

jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 12:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Dec 15 2017, 10:57 PM) *
Southeast ridge?


Nice try...for one, it's not 1:1. Two...there is a ridge in the gulf coast with a trough over the Northern CONUS.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260921 · Replies: · Views: 5,739

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Dec 15 2017, 10:42 PM) *
Stays awefully cutoff for a long time. Nothing to kick it out till late.




  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260911 · Replies: · Views: 5,739

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Whether or not y'all want to admit it...this was the correct call.

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 12 2017, 11:44 AM) *
To be honest, this thread was created on a false hope of a Nor'easter being created from a clipper. So...the issue we have is actual thread title. I will change to "Winter Storm" to better reflect the possibility of a slight merge of the clipper with the southern stream system.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260776 · Replies: · Views: 12,374

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 15 2017, 02:20 PM) *
Good call on December 10 even though this isn't a strong noreaster. I saw some posters trying to bring you down by saying it's not going to happen.

PSUweathernewbie


Let's be clear Anthony...it's not a nor'easter so he didn't call it right. Let alone he was expecting 6" and a foot off the coast. Quit the parade and take that somewhere else.

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING supported either call.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260758 · Replies: · Views: 12,374

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Congrats on the mood flakes.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260715 · Replies: · Views: 12,374

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Dec 15 2017, 11:12 AM) *
Oh yes, unfortunately, he did

Page topper boom!

Question: If IBM suffered a massive power outage would it be considered a "house of ill compute"?


Look who came out to play! laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260625 · Replies: · Views: 12,374

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:04 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 15 2017, 07:35 AM) *
Agree 100%. Toughest precip type to forecast, and the most "fragile" is the best way I can put it. By fragile, I mean there are numerous factors that can disrupt the inversion necessary.



  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260524 · Replies: · Views: 22,531

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:29 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 15 2017, 07:14 AM) *


I've had quite a few people on Facebook ask me about what happened with that storm and what is the hoopla about 25" of snow for central mo making it's rounds on FB.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260512 · Replies: · Views: 5,739

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Euro

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260461 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 11:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ecanem @ Dec 14 2017, 10:29 PM) *
Ridge looks gone on the 23rd with a major storm tapping pacific moisture?


Ridge is gone?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260448 · Replies: · Views: 27,066

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 11:29 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Dec 14 2017, 10:18 PM) *
Bring it. I can't recall having 3 snow events before Xmas. Unbelievable.


No wrenches fly for a call supported by guidance. As my SREF post showed, 2"-4" clustering is conceivable.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260446 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 11:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Since I only have limited access at work, please make sure to create an OBS thread when the flakes start flying.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260443 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 09:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 14 2017, 08:51 PM) *
SREF has a mean of 3" for Islip. Some members up to 6" some at 1"
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[attachment=335911:Screensh...4_214913.png]


Clustering would say 2-4". Did that WPC link help?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260409 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 09:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(hack5 @ Dec 14 2017, 08:30 PM) *
Ummm....yep. laugh.gif


Obviously you didn't read the whole thread regarding that comment.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260400 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 09:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 14 2017, 08:05 PM) *
Wish there was skill scores from like 1-3 days out and not just 500mb level. NAM has been impressive lately. Not sure will score again here but has my attention. Timing will stink for evening commute


Look here.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260390 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 09:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 14 2017, 07:49 PM) *
21z SREFs came more northwest with the surface low, and stronger now down to 1004mb off of NJ, with the 3-6" accumulations skirting the New England coastline and backing into NYC


Funny...I looked at the plumes and Groton mean was ~2.5". What mean showed 6"?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260386 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 08:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 14 2017, 06:53 PM) *
Up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, b, a, select, start. smile.gif


Well played indeed!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260378 · Replies: · Views: 22,531

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 08:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 14 2017, 06:35 PM) *
I am talking about Cape Cod, not NJ or NY, I am done talking about those locations I know nothing about.




Page topper baby!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260376 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 05:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 14 2017, 04:02 PM) *
What do you mean numbers I think low end could be 1-3" high end potential 6"


Will be looking forward to seeing @crankyweatherguy's Twitter account for what he receives since he's on Cape Cod.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260329 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 04:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 14 2017, 03:54 PM) *
Plus my NWS WFO AFD today says they are watching for a more robust system in the next modeled cycle


They state a few inches of snow is possible if that happens. Now... actually start posting numbers instead of vague post.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260326 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 04:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 14 2017, 03:50 PM) *
They will continue the trend, as we have seen with the Saturday winter storm and the Clipper this morning,


Those storms are two different animals from this one. Again...mood flakes are NOT what you created this thread for.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260320 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 04:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 14 2017, 03:44 PM) *
The 00z runs should really paint the type of picture we can enjoy tonight


Just stop. This is far from what you created the thread for.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260316 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

jdrenken
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 04:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,442
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Dec 14 2017, 02:29 PM) *
Gotta say the fun has been taken out discussing this one. Feel like I gotta tip toe around on glass around these parts, so I will be refraining from commenting on the further NW trend for the Delmarva area.


There is plenty of fun to be had about mood flakes. Tip toe on glass is a matter of what YOU make it.

Moving on...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2260306 · Replies: · Views: 21,632

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