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> Feb 24-26 Northeast/Mid-Atl Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Blizz
post Feb 17 2016, 05:27 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 17 2016, 05:25 PM) *
Think that we can agree on one thing. Northern New England will get crushed no matter what


I wouldn't say that. blink.gif


--------------------
Conyngham, PA - 44" per year
Season to Date: 48.4"
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Blizzard Warnings: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1

Previous Winters (2011-2016): 21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0"
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 17 2016, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(BLIZZARD_OF_79 @ Feb 17 2016, 05:27 PM) *
GFS did come east a bit . I wouldn't call it a disaster.


gfs came way east with the main storm, the 12Z run crushed Buffalo.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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StormTracker
post Feb 17 2016, 05:28 PM
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QUOTE(nard1 @ Feb 17 2016, 05:27 PM) *
QPF is insane though with the 18Z... imagine if it had some cold air

It might!!
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Ryan Duff
post Feb 17 2016, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(SnowyNEPA @ Feb 17 2016, 05:25 PM) *
someone says ugly run, next poster says good run. Lets just watch it finish then dissect.


No kidding. It's like amateur hour in here sometimes. Too much premature extrapolation. laugh.gif laugh.gif


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stilko4
post Feb 17 2016, 05:28 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 17 2016, 05:25 PM) *
Think that we can agree on one thing. Northern New England will get crushed no matter what

Way to early to say anything


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snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
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winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
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nard1
post Feb 17 2016, 05:28 PM
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Ryan Duff
post Feb 17 2016, 05:32 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 17 2016, 05:25 PM) *
I guess ugly or no depends on one's perspective. I've stated the positives, you guys can have at it and tell us how horrible you thought it was.


It would be better if 'Burbs was still here with his trashcan images throwing a model run into it. I miss that guy.


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StormTracker
post Feb 17 2016, 05:29 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 17 2016, 05:28 PM) *
Way to early to say anything

I'm not saying it because I live there I'm saying it because there's a fresh injection of cold air
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grandpaboy
post Feb 17 2016, 05:30 PM
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Calling any specific model a disaster ATM kinda makes me go... huh.gif


I'm with crankyman on this one....the pieces are there, the signal is there...specifics come later...


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Art on LI
post Feb 17 2016, 05:31 PM
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I am going to go out on a limb, but based on what I am seeing, a benchmark snowstorm seems like a good possibility. And this is not wishcasting, as I could do without another storm.
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RobB
post Feb 17 2016, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Feb 17 2016, 05:32 PM) *
It would be better if 'Burbs was still here with his trashcan images throwing a model run into it. I miss that guy.



I agree.

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Ryan Duff
post Feb 17 2016, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(Art on LI @ Feb 17 2016, 05:31 PM) *
I am going to go out on a limb, but based on what I am seeing, a benchmark snowstorm seems like a good possibility. And this is not wishcasting, as I could do without another storm.


Agree on both points.


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StormTracker
post Feb 17 2016, 05:32 PM
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QUOTE(Art on LI @ Feb 17 2016, 05:31 PM) *
I am going to go out on a limb, but based on what I am seeing, a benchmark snowstorm seems like a good possibility. And this is not wishcasting, as I could do without another storm.

Benchmark?
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Blizz
post Feb 17 2016, 05:32 PM
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GFS



Good run for most of interior New England.


--------------------
Conyngham, PA - 44" per year
Season to Date: 48.4"
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Blizzard Warnings: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1

Previous Winters (2011-2016): 21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0"
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 17 2016, 05:35 PM
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Not that verbatim matters much but just because it's being debated, this is a DRAMATIC shift east.

18Z

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...WI&hour=195

vs

12Z

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...WI&hour=201


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Ryan Duff
post Feb 17 2016, 05:36 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 17 2016, 05:32 PM) *
Benchmark?


Most major east coast storms go over the 40/70 benchmark.

Attached Image


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Blizz
post Feb 17 2016, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Feb 17 2016, 05:36 PM) *
Most major east coast storms go over the 40/70 benchmark.

Attached Image


Not my benchmark. wink.gif


--------------------
Conyngham, PA - 44" per year
Season to Date: 48.4"
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Blizzard Warnings: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1

Previous Winters (2011-2016): 21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0"
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jdrenken
post Feb 17 2016, 05:37 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 17 2016, 01:30 PM) *
Wpc update at 1pm ish


Stalled boundary out front makes me think little movement going on with that blocking ohmy.gif. Right over 40/70

They have it phased in this frame, no latent LPs lying around . go wpc! Rausch the man


This could be interesting...remember...forecast vs reality


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StormTracker
post Feb 17 2016, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Feb 17 2016, 05:36 PM) *
Most major east coast storms go over the 40/70 benchmark.

Attached Image

I'm sorry, I don't know what benchmark is could you explain to me?

This post has been edited by StormTracker: Feb 17 2016, 05:35 PM
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jb1979
post Feb 17 2016, 05:38 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 17 2016, 05:25 PM) *
I guess ugly or no depends on one's perspective. I've stated the positives, you guys can have at it and tell us how horrible you thought it was.


Yep, I thought 12Z was an improvement toward a better solution than 0Z and this was better than 12Z. Getting there IMO


--------------------
2016 Snow Events:
1/22-23: 27 inches
2/5: .5 inches
2/9: 3 inches
2/11: 1 inch
2/15: 1 inch
______________________________
Winter 2016 - 32.5 inches
Winter 2015 - 41 inches
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches (2nd Highest)
Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
Average Annual Snowfall (Est.) 25 inches
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