Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

12 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Hurricane Sandy, 11PM EDT: CAT1 75MPH 950MB - NE@ 14mph
Juniorrr
post Oct 20 2012, 09:06 AM
Post #1




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 12,590
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413








QUOTE
1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



Will the Caribbean curse kill it?

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Oct 24 2012, 06:20 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ron in Miami
post Oct 20 2012, 01:01 PM
Post #2




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 1,115
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





Up to 60% chance now...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE
AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rainstorm
post Oct 20 2012, 05:48 PM
Post #3




EF-2 (Frequent Poster)
**

Group: Member
Posts: 204
Joined: 6-March 09
Member No.: 17,856





canadian turns it into a monster.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Oct 20 2012, 05:51 PM
Post #4




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(rainstorm @ Oct 20 2012, 05:48 PM) *
canadian turns it into a monster.

I can't say the CMC is as bad as it is portrayed.

The CMC was the first model to show the Chicago Blizzard. However, it jumped off the bandwagon as soon as the ECMWF jumped on, so...

Anyhow, here's hour 180.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Oct 20 2012, 06:07 PM
Post #5




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 33,603
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 20 2012, 06:51 PM) *
I can't say the CMC is as bad as it is portrayed.

The CMC was the first model to show the Chicago Blizzard. However, it jumped off the bandwagon as soon as the ECMWF jumped on, so...

Anyhow, here's hour 180.

CMC's tropical exaggeration bias + overamplification bias = the above

In some cases, its crazy solutions end up not too far from reality. In other cases, however, they're just as crazy compared to reality as they appear when they first show up.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 21 2012, 10:07 AM
Post #6




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,624
Joined: 26-March 08
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 20 2012, 05:51 PM) *
I can't say the CMC is as bad as it is portrayed.

The CMC was the first model to show the Chicago Blizzard. However, it jumped off the bandwagon as soon as the ECMWF jumped on, so...

Anyhow, here's hour 180.


I guess you are forgetting how it turned every tropical system into a monster? Saying the CMC isn't as bad as portrayedis like saying thr NOGAPS is the best. Look no farther than actual verification scores.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 21 2012, 10:08 AM
Post #7




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,624
Joined: 26-March 08
Member No.: 14,521





Flight tonight...
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 10:28 AM
Post #8




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 21 2012, 10:07 AM) *
I guess you are forgetting how it turned every tropical system into a monster? Saying the CMC isn't as bad as portrayedis like saying thr NOGAPS is the best. Look no farther than actual verification scores.

No, I fully agree that the CMC is a horrible model, through and through. However, it does have its moments, one of which was the Chicago Blizzard.

If either the NOGAPS or CMC were really that bad (they can be at times, like this morning's 0z run), they would have either been drastically updated or pulled altogether.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 10:29 AM
Post #9




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





CMC...
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Oct 21 2012, 10:52 AM
Post #10




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,624
Joined: 26-March 08
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 21 2012, 10:28 AM) *
No, I fully agree that the CMC is a horrible model, through and through. However, it does have its moments, one of which was the Chicago Blizzard.

If either the NOGAPS or CMC were really that bad (they can be at times, like this morning's 0z run), they would have either been drastically updated or pulled altogether.


The CMC was not the 1st to see the GHD.

We can play the "if such and such models was so bad" game all day, but it won't matter. Case in point, the CRAS is still running.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 11:10 AM
Post #11




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 21 2012, 10:52 AM) *
The CMC was not the 1st to see the GHD.

We can play the "if such and such models was so bad" game all day, but it won't matter. Case in point, the CRAS is still running.

Point taken wink.gif


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 11:11 AM
Post #12




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





6z GFS landfalls on the Northeast and brings temperatures as low as 15 degrees (F) well into the heart of the nation.


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

Attached Image
 


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Oct 21 2012, 11:14 AM
Post #13




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 12,590
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





12z GFS has this hanging out in the Bahamas as a high end TS/Cat 1 storm.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 11:28 AM
Post #14




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





End of GFDL has this at Cat.2
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Oct 21 2012, 11:32 AM
Post #15




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 12,590
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Get your arks readyyy
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Oct 21 2012, 01:32 PM
Post #16







Guests








http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marin...m=wind#contents

[attachment=171592:nh2_wind...026_1200.png]

[attachment=171593:atlsfc72_latestBW.gif]

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Oct 21 2012, 01:51 PM
Post #17




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 21,190
Joined: 10-August 09
Member No.: 18,864








QUOTE
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...ISPRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THECENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELLSOUTH OF JAMAICA. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TOSPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 01:55 PM
Post #18




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 7,173
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 21 2012, 01:51 PM) *

Definitely quite a bit of improvement on convection in that loop...


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rainstorm
post Oct 21 2012, 03:25 PM
Post #19




EF-2 (Frequent Poster)
**

Group: Member
Posts: 204
Joined: 6-March 09
Member No.: 17,856





FROM RALEIGHWX

I am definitely becoming concerned with the full phasing scenario. It has certainly been gaining traction. 12z Euro is nasty looking especially NC north. I have been and will be posting updates as I look at models etc on twitter if you are interested. @RaleighWx
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Oct 21 2012, 04:21 PM
Post #20




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 21,190
Joined: 10-August 09
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(rainstorm @ Oct 21 2012, 04:25 PM) *
FROM RALEIGHWX

I am definitely becoming concerned with the full phasing scenario. It has certainly been gaining traction. 12z Euro is nasty looking especially NC north. I have been and will be posting updates as I look at models etc on twitter if you are interested. @RaleighWx


For some reason I can't find that statement. I did find these last few tweets from him.

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx

QUOTE
12z Euro showing it as well as last 3 runs of GFS. Whole east coast needs to watch, especially from Outer Banks north


QUOTE
A look at 12z Euro ensemble members show operational near the middle of envelope. Meaning phasing scenario is very much on table


QUOTE
What would a phase mean? It would mean that even though this storm would likely be transitioning from a tropical system to an extra-tropical


QUOTE
one. The strong trough will absorb the tropical energy and create a very intense cold-core or hybrid cyclone that will bring high winds,


QUOTE
heavy rain, coastal flooding etc. In short a huge impact event just before or on Halloween. Greatest threat Outer Banks to New Englad. But? The latest model ideas of driving the storm NW well inland would mean a widespread damaging event for much of the populated NE corridor
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

12 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 15th November 2018 - 01:14 AM