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> Subtropical Storm Alberto, 05/28 11AM EST - 50 MPH - 994 MB - Movement: N @ 14mph
stxprowl
post May 24 2018, 02:05 PM
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Found a Met in Baton Rouge doing a live Facebook update at 2:30pm Central time.
https://m.facebook.com/Steve-Caparotta-WAFB-189278031090864/

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Weather4LA
post May 24 2018, 02:12 PM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ May 24 2018, 01:05 PM) *
Found a Met in Baton Rouge doing a live Facebook update at 2:30pm Central time.
https://m.facebook.com/Steve-Caparotta-WAFB-189278031090864/

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He's a good Met in my area. I usually give some weight to his analyses. I'll be watching some of his update when he's live.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 24 2018, 02:37 PM
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Pretty impactful from about tampa to near New Orleans. Depending on track will make a difference in locations but between Pensacola and Tallahassee seems to be the best idea as of now for highest impact. Still thinking this struggles to attain tropical but doesnt matter since hybrids tend to be more widespread. Would be surprised if this really does manage to ramp up though but that heavy rain threat seems pretty serious considering many places have seen quite a lot of rain lately. I say we get a 50-60mph subtropical first named storm if things come together decently. Gotta watch these troughs in the GOM been around throwing wave after wave into FL region while TX has high and dry for the most part.

What is weird is we normally dont get tropical systems in phase 2-3, usually overall downwelling for NA and Atlantic, but we do get some decent ridging so that may be enough to allow things to get a quick form.

Go figure it doesnt seem to always follow MJO wave progression I guess. This article says when we get westerly anomlous winds around the lower tropo across eastern Pac TC activity increases for GOM. As well as different factors seem to help enhance things here and there.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11...LI-D-13-00483.1

QUOTE
The MJO has been shown to modulate TC activity in each of the global TC basins individually. In the North Atlantic basin, Maloney and Hartmann (2000b) demonstrated that Gulf of Mexico TC activity was much more frequent when lower-tropospheric wind anomalies associated with the MJO were westerly in the eastern Pacific than when they were easterly. Barrett and Leslie (2009) showed that enhanced upper-tropospheric divergence associated with the MJO was one of the primary drivers of increased TC activity in the Atlantic.


This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: May 24 2018, 02:45 PM


--------------------
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stxprowl
post May 24 2018, 09:50 PM
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ohmy.gif
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/...TM&hour=084
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http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_se&dpdt=
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Undertakerson
post May 25 2018, 04:10 AM
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UKIE

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BSR
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MaineJay
post May 25 2018, 04:31 AM
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Impressive overnight convection, looks like a circulation just off the Yucatan isn't underneath the CDO.

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MaineJay
post May 25 2018, 05:28 AM
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GOMEX SSTs

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NorEaster07
post May 25 2018, 05:29 AM
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Euro00z

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Undertakerson
post May 25 2018, 05:50 AM
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And again, the BSR. Really, that's a close enough match for me. Then again, I am a gov't worker, so.... tongue.gif

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Ron in Miami
post May 25 2018, 06:35 AM
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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just
east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has become better defined
overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become
better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily
become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon.

1. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much
of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. This
system could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late this weekend or early
next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office,
and see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
for information on gale warnings associated with this system. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 200 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart
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DrewNola
post May 25 2018, 07:00 AM
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In New Orleans, watching.....
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stretchct
post May 25 2018, 07:47 AM
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Rain and top gusts.
Euro
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GFS
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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 25 2018, 07:52 AM
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NAM top gusts. Backed off from 0z run.
Attached Image

KIM its still raining at this point.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 25 2018, 07:54 AM
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Ukie
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Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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DrewNola
post May 25 2018, 09:20 AM
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Subtropical Storm Alberto forms in northwestern Caribbean Se*bleep***** The National Hurricane Center will issue advisories at 10 a.m. Central Time on "Subtropical Storm Alberto" located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.**


Levi Cowan


@TropicalTidbits
5m5 minutes ago
More Levi Cowan Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
Subtropical Storm Alberto has formed in the NW Caribbean.

This post has been edited by DrewNola: May 25 2018, 09:27 AM
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DrewNola
post May 25 2018, 09:52 AM
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****BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge
watches could be required for portions of this area later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend,
followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track,
Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning,
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and
approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.
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stretchct
post May 25 2018, 09:56 AM
Post #37




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From: Newtown, CT
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BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Attached Image



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 25 2018, 09:59 AM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Newtown, CT
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Discussion
CODE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 251444
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly
as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur.
For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.


I haven't seen the recon plan of the day updated since 5/15.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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MaineJay
post May 25 2018, 10:46 AM
Post #39




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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QUOTE(stretchct @ May 25 2018, 10:59 AM) *
Discussion
CODE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 251444
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly
as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur.
For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.


I haven't seen the recon plan of the day updated since 5/15.



This was issued yesterday, it was in the "for tomorrow" link

CODE
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241744
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT THU 24 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2018
         TCPOD NUMBER.....18-003 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 25/1900Z                   A. 26/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 25/1700Z                   C. 26/0915Z
       D. 21.7N 87.2W...(LAT CORR.)  D. 24.0N 86.8W
       E. 25/1830Z TO 25/2300Z       E. 26/1100Z TO 26/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS.
    3. REMARKS:  THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD.  DAILY TCPODS ARE RESUMING
       WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED
       OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml


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MaineJay
post May 25 2018, 11:08 AM
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GOES16 band 3 clearly shows a circulation.

Edit: there may be other circulations under the thunderstorms, can tell for sure

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

This post has been edited by MaineJay: May 25 2018, 11:13 AM


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