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> Major Hurricane Aletta (C4), Eastern Pacific | Category 4 | 140 mph winds | 943 mb
Solstice
post Jun 5 2018, 09:03 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 5 2018


QUOTE
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight
near an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form by Friday a few hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are forecast
gradually become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake


GOES 16 - Band 2 - 1 minute imagery


This post has been edited by Solstice: Jun 11 2018, 05:34 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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idecline
post Jun 5 2018, 07:19 PM
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rolleyes.gif ...thanks for noticing the Eastern Pacific basin...seldom does the Pacific get much 'media' attention...in my estimation it is very important...in that the moisture drawn up to north can be drawn into the Westerly flow, directly effecting the CONUS...and tropical storms( and hurricanes/tropical cyclones ) are fascinating no matter where they occur on the globe...
Attached Image

...from AccuWeather "hurricane 2018" page:
QUOTE
Tropical development likely soon
6/5/2018 5:00:00 PM
We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low pressure area over 300 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Recent satellite imagery depicts greater organization of this feature. We anticipate more consolidation to this area of low pressure over the next 12-24 hours.

Tropical development appears likely soon as ambient environmental conditions improve around this disturbance. This system will likely continue to drift to the west, on the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge axis situated over north-central Mexico. Regardless of development of this system, we do not anticipate it to directly impact any land masses.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific Basin, we will be monitoring the potential for a tropical wave to emerge off of the coast of Central America later today and tomorrow. This tropical wave will also have the potential for development late this weekend or early next week.

by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek


from NHC:

Attached Image

QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 5 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with a
low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better defined, and it
appears that a tropical depression is forming. Continued
development is expected, and advisories could be initiated on this
system as early as this evening or early Wednesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. A tropical wave moving westward across Central America into the far
eastern Pacific Ocean is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become
more conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg


huh.gif ...looks like a 100%-er...bright red on the NHC map...'Aletta' in our future...???

This post has been edited by idecline: Jun 5 2018, 07:21 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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Solstice
post Jun 6 2018, 09:53 AM
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Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018


CODE
The cloud pattern of the storm is gradually becoming better
organized, but most of the deep convection is confined to the
eastern and southern portions of the circulation.  Cirrus cloud
motions suggest that the upper-level outflow is slightly restricted
over the northwest quadrant, but vertical shear is not very strong
over the system.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are unchanged from the previous synoptic time so the current
intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.  Since Aletta should
remain over warm waters with modest shear over the next several
days, strengthening is likely.  The model guidance is not very
bullish on intensification, however.  Given the apparently
favorable environment, the official forecast is at the high end of
the guidance.

Based on a recent GMI microwave image, the center is repositioned a
little to the north of the previous track.  This gives an
estimated initial motion of 280/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending
from Mexico into the eastern Pacific should induce a westward or
slightly north of west motion over the next several days.  The
latest GFS and its ensemble mean are on the northern side of the
track guidance envelope and the ECMWF forecast is near the southern
side.  The official forecast essentially splits the difference and
lies quite close to the dynamical model consensus, and is not much
different from the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 14.7N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 14.8N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 15.0N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 15.2N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 15.4N 111.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 16.0N 113.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


This post has been edited by Solstice: Jun 6 2018, 09:53 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 6 2018, 04:39 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Jun 5 2018, 08:19 PM) *
rolleyes.gif ...thanks for noticing the Eastern Pacific basin...seldom does the Pacific get much 'media' attention...in my estimation it is very important...in that the moisture drawn up to north can be drawn into the Westerly flow, directly effecting the CONUS...and tropical storms( and hurricanes/tropical cyclones ) are fascinating no matter where they occur on the globe...
Attached Image

...from AccuWeather "hurricane 2018" page:
from NHC:

Attached Image

huh.gif ...looks like a 100%-er...bright red on the NHC map...'Aletta' in our future...???


Yea a big reason is because 90% of the storms dont impact land other than high surf and then eventually the mositure aspect which as you state is probably the most important thing that does come from this region. Not that it goes unnoticed because many of times when the Atlantic is quiet the eastern and western Pac are much more focused on.

Bit of a late start though to tropical weather in this region usually happens the last week of may, so not too terribly late. Think it may be an average season out there this year considering the cooler then normal conditions are still upwelling in the eastern Pac near the Peruvian coast line. The east pac tends to have weak years with cooler waters in the eastern portion, or atleast the activity gets shifted into a warmer locals compared to just off the central American coastline.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Solstice
post Jun 7 2018, 07:05 AM
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Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 07 2018


CODE
The cloud pattern has become a little better organized and the
low-level center appears to be more embedded within the deep
convection than several hours ago. Although the outflow is fair,
there are still shear at some level affecting the cyclone by
observing the motion of the cirrus clouds.  T-numbers from all
agencies including the UW-CIMSS objective values have increased to
3.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial intensity has been increased
to 55 kt.

Guidance suggests some modest intensification, although there is a
difference between the GFS-based SHIPS model and the ECMWF-based
one.  The latter is less aggressive and barely forecast Aletta
to become a hurricane.  The NHC follows the intensity consensus and
the FSU super-ensemble, and calls for Aletta to become a hurricane
within the next 12 to 24 hours. After 3 days, the environment
becomes unfavorable and a gradual weakening should then begin.

Aletta is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 6 kt
around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over Mexico. This
pattern should continue to steer the cyclone on a general
westward course for a day or two, and then the cyclone sould turn to
the west-northwest or northwest toward a weakness of the ridge.  The
NHC forecast is very close to the FSU super-ensemble, and is in the
middle of the wide guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north
and the ECMWF to the south.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  07/1800Z 14.7N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  08/0600Z 14.9N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  08/1800Z 15.3N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  09/0600Z 15.7N 112.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  10/0600Z 17.0N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  11/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 7 2018, 03:21 PM
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Man this thing is really going in now! They have a mesoscale floater over top and I would not be surprised at next update if it ended up cat1/2 territory. Great outflow in most sectors strongest on the north and east side probably due to high location helping out with less shearing environment. Deep convection trying to go overtop and wrap around the storm so once that does boom it will go. The first named storm and possibly major hurricane of the east pac season? It has a little more time to get its act together but I think if forward progression stays by tomorrow evening it should have peaked out as it moves into cooler waters.

One thing of note is it is trying to fight off some dry air intrusion on the southern and western side doing so by exploding thunderstorms in that region so maybe this keeps potential of a major off the board but not a bad start to the season out there. Probably will have a weaker wave behind this one that may get to TS status maybe weak hurricane but this will probably steal most of the show and transfer back over to the Caribbean side for mid month.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms...;colorbars=data

This will be fun to watch later on as usually nighttime things really get going in storms! Cant wait to see some intense convection with the 1 minute imagery. Also noticed they have one over the midwest probably another fun one to watch and observe the storm structures.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post Jun 7 2018, 05:42 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 7 2018, 04:21 PM) *
Man this thing is really going in now! They have a mesoscale floater over top and I would not be surprised at next update if it ended up cat1/2 territory. Great outflow in most sectors strongest on the north and east side probably due to high location helping out with less shearing environment. Deep convection trying to go overtop and wrap around the storm so once that does boom it will go. The first named storm and possibly major hurricane of the east pac season? It has a little more time to get its act together but I think if forward progression stays by tomorrow evening it should have peaked out as it moves into cooler waters.

One thing of note is it is trying to fight off some dry air intrusion on the southern and western side doing so by exploding thunderstorms in that region so maybe this keeps potential of a major off the board but not a bad start to the season out there. Probably will have a weaker wave behind this one that may get to TS status maybe weak hurricane but this will probably steal most of the show and transfer back over to the Caribbean side for mid month.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms...;colorbars=data

This will be fun to watch later on as usually nighttime things really get going in storms! Cant wait to see some intense convection with the 1 minute imagery. Also noticed they have one over the midwest probably another fun one to watch and observe the storm structures.


Looks like that dry air is being evacuate/saturated.

3 minute imagery, one hour loop. Should have a well defined eye within the next couple of hours.

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...oop_speed_ms=80

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 7 2018, 05:48 PM


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 7 2018, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 7 2018, 06:42 PM) *
Looks like that dry air is being evacuate/saturated.

3 minute imagery, one hour loop. Should have a well defined eye within the next couple of hours.

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...oop_speed_ms=80


Looks like the process is about to really take off based on the latest upper level WV.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Solstice
post Jun 7 2018, 08:08 PM
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Here's a GIF I forgot to upload earlier, so it's outdated now, but who cares? tongue.gif. 1 minute imagery, 3 hour loop.


This post has been edited by Solstice: Jun 7 2018, 08:08 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Jun 7 2018, 08:13 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 1,006
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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





STAR website is not updating the floaters... way too unreliable at the moment. Here's some RGB imagery.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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MaineJay
post Jun 7 2018, 08:46 PM
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ADT

QUOTE
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUN 2018 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 15:27:36 N Lon : 110:16:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 976.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -42.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.7 degrees

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt02E.html




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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 7 2018, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 7 2018, 09:46 PM) *


Nice I really wouldnt be surprised if we are close to cat 2 status at this point. Looking rather healthy and the eye is getting its wall structure spitting out the last of its dry air


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Solstice
post Jun 8 2018, 06:09 AM
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Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018


CODE
Aletta's impressive satellite presentation has not changed much
since the 6Z special advisory.  Thus the initial wind speed will
stay 105 kt, which is very similar to a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates.  The hurricane has less than a day to strengthen before
the environment becomes less hospitable, with a notable increase in
shear and decrease in water temperatures forecast this weekend.
These conditions will likely cause significant weakening of Aletta
over the weekend, with rapid weakening predicted by Sunday.  The
official forecast is similar to the previous one, but has been
lowered at long range in accordance with the latest guidance.  The
GFS and ECMWF suggest Aletta will lose deep convection by day 4, so
the remnant low timing has been moved up to that day.

The hurricane has been moving slowly at about 5 kt during the
night, with a motion toward the west-northwest or northwest.  As the
shear increases on Saturday, Aletta should turn a little more to
the northwest as the deep circulation feels the southwesterly flow
associated with a broad upper trough over the eastern Pacific.  By
Monday, the cyclone should turn more to the west-northwest and then
westward by the end of the forecast due to Aletta becoming a more
shallow system and being steered by a low-level ridge.  One notable
outlier is the ECMWF model, which moves Aletta more westward almost
immediately, resulting in a much farther south track than the other
models.  This model has had a southward bias for this storm and is
weighted less it normally would be in this advisory package.  The
new forecast is close to the previous one, which also put less
weight on the ECMWF solution, and lies near the evenly weighted
track consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  08/1800Z 16.1N 111.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  09/0600Z 16.7N 112.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  09/1800Z 17.4N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  10/0600Z 18.2N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  11/0600Z 19.3N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  12/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Jun 8 2018, 09:01 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,006
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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816







--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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MaineJay
post Jun 8 2018, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jun 8 2018, 10:01 AM)
.



Satellite presentation is that of a Cat 5 in my opinion. Those radial striations and the gravity waves propagating out from the center are telling.

No time for a gif. Still shot.
Attached Image


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...oop_speed_ms=80


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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stretchct
post Jun 8 2018, 02:09 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Disco mentions no reason why it shouldn't continue to intensify, but then gives reasons why its not modeled to intensify.
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 111.2W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


CODE

Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

The remarkable intensification of Aletta has continued through this
morning. The eye has become clear and at times has been
surrounded by a closed ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C.
The initial intensity of 120 kt is based on a blend of subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates. It is noteworthy that the
intensity of Aletta has increased by an estimated 60 kt in just 24
hours since yesterday morning.

The short-range intensity forecast is particularly difficult since
there are no obvious reasons why Aletta should cease
intensification. Although the deep-layer wind shear is currently
very low and SSTs are warm enough to support further
intensification, nearly all of the intensity guidance indicates that
Aletta should have reached its peak. Recent microwave imagery does
indicates that a secondary eyewall has not yet formed, however
the resolution of the instruments could limit our ability to detect
such a feature. Given the low bias of the guidance for Aletta so
far, the new forecast allows for some slight additional
strengthening during the day today.
By 24 hours, moderate shear
should cause the hurricane to begin weakening steadily, with rapid
weakening occuring between 36 and 72 h while Aletta traverses a
strong SST gradient. Due to the higher initial intensity of Aletta,
the official forecast is a little higher than the previous one for
the first 24 hours, but very similar thereafter.

Almost no change has been to the track forecast. A broad
upper-level trough over the eastern Pacific should cause Aletta to
turn more toward the northwest in 24 to 36 h. After Aletta rapidly
weakens over the weekend, the lower-level trade winds will become
the dominant steering flow, forcing the cyclone to turn back toward
the west. Excluding the ECMWF which does not have a realistic
depiction of the major hurricane, the guidance has come into
somewhat better agreement today and confidence in the track
forecast has increased since yesterday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.8N 111.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.0N 112.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.9N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.6N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 20.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 8 2018, 02:24 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 6,856
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
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Pretty storm, glad its nowhere near us.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 8 2018, 02:38 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,856
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470







--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Solstice
post Jun 8 2018, 02:42 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,006
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816







--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Jun 8 2018, 05:31 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,006
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Got a 1 minute imagery loop slightly over 7 hours long... however it's far too big to go to most image hosting (almost 300 MB). So I had to resort to Dropbox... not ideal but there was no other way.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/f72dhdpd6mb5opw/animation.gif?dl=0


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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