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> Hurricane Beryl, 7/6 5PM AST - 80 MPH - 994 MB - Movement: W @ 15 mph
Ron in Miami
post Jul 4 2018, 05:27 AM
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2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with
tropical wave and a small area of low pressure is located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although
satellite images show some signs of organization, the disturbance
is moving west-northwestward toward an area unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jul 6 2018, 06:16 PM
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2H9er
post Jul 4 2018, 10:29 AM
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Was just watching nullschool wind patterns map of Atlantic basin, was wondering if that fairly strong rotation may develop. Located approximately along 10 longitude, 35 latitude. Figured I would come to the source and get the word. wink.gif
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jul 4 2018, 12:09 PM
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Big tropical wave and low-pressure center show signs of continuing to develop. I could see percentages near medium to high at 2 pm and 8 pm tonight
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jul 4 2018, 12:12 PM
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Spiral banding developing with invest 95L
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2H9er
post Jul 4 2018, 01:02 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Jul 4 2018, 01:12 PM) *
Spiral banding developing with invest 95L

Still have nullschool running, set at surface.https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-38.94,10.40,1277/loc=-35.889,9.686

That flow from south on eastern side looks fairly substantial.
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2H9er
post Jul 4 2018, 01:04 PM
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Apparently that is not how to set a link in comments, oops. dry.gif
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2H9er
post Jul 4 2018, 01:40 PM
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And how it be on the Cape this fine July 4th! Just saw where you are located, I am not making it out this year. Sux to be me! wink.gif
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stretchct
post Jul 4 2018, 03:09 PM
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Hmmm.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 4 2018, 07:18 PM
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2. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for development when the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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stretchct
post Jul 5 2018, 08:11 AM
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Vorticity is there
Attached Image


Shear is favorable
Attached Image


Upper level divergence isn't there yet
Attached Image


Any dry air?
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 5 2018, 10:24 AM
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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

For the past day or so, we've been monitoring a small area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. Despite a noticeable mid-level rotation in the convective
clouds, it had not been conclusive whether or not the system had a
closed circulation at the surface with a well-defined center.
However, the system appears more distinct and independent from the
Intertropical Convergence Zone as compared to yesterday, and
scatterometer data appears conclusive enough to support a closed,
yet tiny circulation. We are now confident enough that the system
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and have initiated
advisories on Tropical Depression Two with maximum winds of 30 kt,
which is supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression will be located in a relatively low-shear environment
for the next 3 days or so. However, the small cyclone is surrounded
by abundant dry air, and the system will be moving over marginally
warm waters during the next few days, which could both limit
intensification. The NHC official forecast allows for some slight
strengthening and most closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus
guidance (HCCA), showing the depression becoming a tropical storm
within the next 24 hours. Between 72 and 96 hours, the system is
expected to begin encountering strong westerly shear and also
accelerate, both of which should cause it to degenerate into an open
wave east of the Lesser Antilles.

Even though the center has been difficult to locate, the initial
motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt. The depression is
located to the south of a sprawling subtropical ridge, although a
break in the ridge over the central Atlantic may cause the system to
slow down a bit during the next 36 hours. After that time, the
cyclone is likely to speed up again when it becomes situated to the
south of a new mid-level high. The track guidance is in generally
good agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX
multi-model consensus and the HCCA guidance.

Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 10.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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GossipKing
post Jul 5 2018, 02:17 PM
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I believe we have our 2nd named storm.
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snowlover2
post Jul 5 2018, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(GossipKing @ Jul 5 2018, 03:17 PM) *
I believe we have our 2nd named storm.

We do.

QUOTE
Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
230 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL...

Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical depression has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An
updated intensity forecast will be provided with the 500 PM AST
(2100 UTC) advisory.


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 42.3W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 5 2018, 05:42 PM
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Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...TINY BERYL STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 42.8W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 42.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser
Antilles through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl
could become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. Beryl is forecast
to degenerate into an open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles
over the weekend.


Beryl is a tiny tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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stxprowl
post Jul 5 2018, 09:21 PM
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I thought his was a neat Facebook live data feed for Beryl. Thanks to 10 news wtsp in Tampa Bay.
https://www.facebook.com/bobby.deskins.weat...59648744089149/
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stretchct
post Jul 5 2018, 09:58 PM
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Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

Tiny Beryl has maintained a small ball of convection near the center
except for a brief period around 2300 UTC when a tight curved band
was exposed, revealing 10- to 11-tenths banding. Passive microwave
satellite data during the past 6 hours have also indicated
5-nmi-diameter eye exists underneath the CDO feature. Given the
small size of the cyclone, which can quickly adjust to convective
changes, and a Dvorak satellite estimate of T3.5/55 kt from SAB, the
advisory intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. Most of the latest model
guidance has made a pronounced southward shift, which is significant
since all of the models have displayed a distinct right-of-track,
poleward bias over the past 48 hours. The ECMWF has had the greatest
poleward bias, and is now the northernmost solution in the model
suite. The GFS, HWRF, and UKMET are now clustered along the southern
edge of the guidance envelope, with the consensus models somewhere
in between those latter models and the ECMWF. Given the very small
size of Beryl, I am having difficulty envisioning the cyclone moving
into the strong subtropical ridge situated to its north and gaining
as much latitude as the ECMWF has been and is still indicating. As a
result, the new NHC forecast track has been shifted south of the
previous advisory track, but not as far south as the GFS-HRWF-UKMET
consensus, and lies a tad south of the HCCA and FSSE solutions.

Water vapor and model moisture analyses indicate that Beryl has been
able to maintain a buffer between it and the very dry, stable air
just to its north, due in large part to the deep, southerly moisture
fetch coming up from the equatorial region. This pattern is forecast
by most of the global models to continue for at least the next 48
hours. That favorable environment, coupled with forecast low
vertical wind shear conditions of near 5 kt for the next 24 hours,
should allow Beryl to achieve hurricane status by late Friday. By 72
hours when Beryl will be approaching the Lesser Antilles, the shear
is forecast to increase from the west and northwest at 20-25 kt,
which is expected to induce rapid weakening. All of the global
models continue to show the cyclone opening up into a tropical wave
shortly after 72 hours, which is what the current forecast continues
to depict in order to maintain continuity with the previous advisory
track. However, only a slight delay in the onset of the strong shear
conditions could result in Beryl maintaining tropical cyclone status
when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday.

Even though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy rains
and strong gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday
and Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence
in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.
Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to
predict are possible during the next couple of days.

2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone
by Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely be
some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week.
Residents there should monitor products from their local weather
office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 10.4N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 10.7N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 11.2N 47.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 11.9N 49.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 12.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 14.4N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 6 2018, 04:20 AM
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QUOTE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 060853
TCPAT2
QUOTE
BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...TINY BERYL BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 45.1W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1830 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 6 2018, 05:07 AM
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stxprowl
post Jul 6 2018, 09:56 AM
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Forecasted to get too a 2 now.
http://spaghettimodels.com

https://www.facebook.com/WJXT4TheLocalStati...34253056587335/
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2H9er
post Jul 6 2018, 10:19 AM
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Got to say this developed faster than I thought it would. Figured Sunday for a named storm out of this system. Oops.
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stretchct
post Jul 6 2018, 10:33 AM
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11am disco. This is escalating fast. Watch the next update predict a major hurricane laugh.gif unsure.gif huh.gif

Remember Danny?

From Wikipedia: "An unusually small hurricane,[13] with gale-force winds extending only 60 mi (95 km) from its center,[14] Danny was prone to significant fluctuations in intensity, making forecasts particularly difficult.[13] Indeed, the storm soon underwent an unpredicted period of rapid intensification aided by nearly non-existent upper-level wind shear.[2] Low-level moisture wrapped around the circulation during this phase, mitigating the influence of the Saharan Air Layer.[15] Danny achieved its peak intensity around 12:00 UTC on August 21 as a Category 3 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale; maximum sustained winds were estimated at 125 mph (205 km/h) alongside a barometric pressure of 960 mbar (hPa); 28.35 inHg).[note 1] Shortly thereafter, increasing shear and dry air initiated a rapid weakening phase.[2] The storm's eye became obscured by clouds and disappeared from satellite image late on August 21"

CODE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 061436
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few
hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but
the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the
convective cloud tops. That may not be applicable in this case
given Beryl's extremely small size. By disregarding the width
constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt.
As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt.

Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly
westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt. Mid-level
ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on
a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period.
An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl
becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level
anticyclone. Some of the track models have already shown a
northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated
NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better-
performing models. This new forecast is not too different from the
previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the
various model consensus aids.

Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a
few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level
anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days.
Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some
increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating
deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the
shear isolated to the cyclone's scale. Given that, the NHC
intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance
through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been
depicting in previous forecasts.
Needless to say, it's becoming
more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it
reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is
also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a
96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast,
showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4. By that point,
either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely
lead to dissipation. But we shall see.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through
the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some
islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are
increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too
early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur.
Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser
Antilles as soon as tonight.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 10.7N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 11.3N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.2N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 13.3N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 14.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


This post has been edited by stretchct: Jul 6 2018, 10:35 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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