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> Hurricane Beryl, 7/6 5PM AST - 80 MPH - 994 MB - Movement: W @ 15 mph
USCG AST
post Jul 6 2018, 10:35 AM
Post #21




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 6 2018, 11:33 AM) *
11am disco. This is escalating fast. Watch the next update predict a major hurricane laugh.gif unsure.gif huh.gif

Remember Danny?

CODE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 061436
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few
hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but
the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the
convective cloud tops. That may not be applicable in this case
given Beryl's extremely small size. By disregarding the width
constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt.
As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt.

Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly
westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt. Mid-level
ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on
a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period.
An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl
becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level
anticyclone. Some of the track models have already shown a
northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated
NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better-
performing models. This new forecast is not too different from the
previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the
various model consensus aids.

Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a
few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level
anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days.
Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some
increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating
deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the
shear isolated to the cyclone's scale. Given that, the NHC
intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance
through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been
depicting in previous forecasts.
Needless to say, it's becoming
more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it
reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is
also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a
96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast,
showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4. By that point,
either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely
lead to dissipation. But we shall see.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through
the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some
islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are
increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too
early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur.
Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser
Antilles as soon as tonight.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 10.7N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 11.3N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.2N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 13.3N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 14.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Yeah... Did you see that pinhole on satellite a couple hours back? unsure.gif

Page topper: My first post of the hurricane season and it tops the page, oh boy...

Hurricane Sandy has hit the East Coast. If MTV won't cancel Jersey Shore, God will.

This post has been edited by USCG AST: Jul 6 2018, 10:48 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jul 6 2018, 11:34 AM
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Hmmm - UKM seems to pick Beryl back up as a "new" or future low (?)

Beryl

Attached Image


"Future Low"

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 6 2018, 11:35 AM
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jdrenken
post Jul 6 2018, 12:49 PM
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Recon "today"...

CODE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 05 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO AT 08/1130Z NEAR 14.7N 56.6W.


Then "tomorrow"...#1 is for the "suspect area" off the SE.

CODE

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0105 PM EDT FRI 06 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-043 CORRECTION

2. HURRICANE BERYL
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
A. 08/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0102A BERYL
C. 08/0830Z
D. 14.2N 56.6W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

C. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES FOR BERYL IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.


This post has been edited by jdrenken: Jul 6 2018, 12:50 PM


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stxprowl
post Jul 6 2018, 01:25 PM
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Just lake a baseball game, you never know what you’ll see each day.
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stxprowl
post Jul 6 2018, 07:16 PM
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So what’s the record for smallest hurricane?
https://twitter.com/weatherprof/status/1015...1872752641?s=12
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MaineJay
post Jul 6 2018, 07:47 PM
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Here's the pinhole eye from earlier.

Attached Image


http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


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stretchct
post Jul 7 2018, 01:44 PM
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Beryl became exposed this morning and was downgraded to TS.

Here's the overnite to midday satellite


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 8 2018, 12:18 PM
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Beryl making my vacation at the shore looking like I need to pay more attention.


Attached Image


Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 8 2018, 12:19 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470






My vacation at the shore may warrant a little more attention to Beryl


Attached Image


Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jul 9 2018, 09:10 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 7,271
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From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 8 2018, 01:19 PM) *
My vacation at the shore may warrant a little more attention to Beryl


Attached Image


Attached Image

Attached Image

Beryl is going to have a rough couple of days with the mountainous Caribbean islands. If her tiny circulation survives the rough journey, she could approach hurricane status once again.

Current Global and GEFS solutions indicate the same trough taking Chris northeast may catch Beryl's remnants too, but there's a lot of ensemble spread in this regard. If the trough swings and misses than EC impacts would be much more likely.

One thing to keep in mind is the mountainous terrain will probably cause Beryl to lose her current center of circulation and if/when/where the CoC redevelops is of utmost importance for the EC.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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stretchct
post Jul 9 2018, 03:17 PM
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Beryl is down. Tough conditions on PR today. But NHC giving a 50% chance of reformation.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast
of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of
Beryl is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The disturbance is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
for the next day or so, passing over Hispaniola tonight and emerging
over the Atlantic waters near the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should
prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for
regeneration of a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday when the
system is forecast to turn northward near the Bahamas and the
western Atlantic. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 10 2018, 09:25 PM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Beryl tracks from last night (last update on the accupro site)


And GFS


OPC getting in on the possibilities


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Solstice
post Jul 11 2018, 07:29 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 1,095
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





ohmy.gif.

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Jul 13 2018, 03:26 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Whats going on with the remnants of Beryl today someone asked?


A lot of dry air on its western half.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 13 2018, 05:27 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Love that https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ has this info - eye is 5 NM
Attached Image




This post has been edited by stretchct: Jul 13 2018, 05:30 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Solstice
post Jul 14 2018, 06:32 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,095
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Didn't even realize it went subtropical until now. laugh.gif.

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018

CODE
While the overall coverage and intensity of convection
associated with Beryl has decreased in the past few hours, the
remaining convection has become better organized into a curved band.
There are also indications that the center may be reforming to the
north in response to this band.  The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on continuity from the previous advisory and a subtropical
intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from TAFB.  Beryl remains embedded in
an upper-level trough that is well defined in GOES-16 airmass
imagery, and thus is still a subtropical cyclone rather than a
tropical cyclone.

The initial motion is 035/12, which is somewhat uncertain due to
the possible reformation of the center.  Otherwise, there is little
change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  Beryl
is in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical
ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer
the cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days.
The guidance has shifted a little to the left of that of the
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that
direction.  The new track is generally a blend of the HCCA and TVCN
consensus models.

The intensity guidance is showing little additional development, and
the new intensity forecast will reflect this in keeping the
intensity at 35 kt for 24 h.  However, the center of Beryl will be
passing over the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, so it would
not surprising if some intensification occurred.  After that, the
system should decay over cold water with little or no extratropical
transition.  The new forecast now calls for dissipation before the
72 h point in agreement with the dynamical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 37.3N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 38.8N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 40.8N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 43.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  16/1800Z 44.9N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Jul 15 2018, 09:14 AM
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Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

...BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
GULFSTREAM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 65.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 65.2 West. The storm
has slowed down considerably and is now moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual increase in forward speed toward the
northeast or north-northeast is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today. Beryl should begin to
weaken by this evening when it moves over colder water, and the
cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system
late tonight or early Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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