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> Hurricane Chris, 7/10 5PM EST - 85 MPH - 980 MB - Movement: NE @ 10 MPH
MaineJay
post Jul 8 2018, 04:41 AM
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On the one hand, the low level circulation can been seen in band 7, but on the other, we can see it because there's little to no convection over it.

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http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 8 2018, 04:41 AM


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MaineJay
post Jul 8 2018, 05:37 AM
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Not thrilled to see the UKie ensembles looking like this. But, I guess we do need the rain..


Attached Image


EPS says no threat. Edit: for the lower 48, maritime Canada doesn't get missed by most members.


Attached Image


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?s...;dtg=2018070800

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 8 2018, 05:42 AM


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MaineJay
post Jul 8 2018, 08:15 AM
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By the way, this has been named.

Chris
QUOTE
Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating
the cyclone early this morning, and found flight-level winds of 45
kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR surface winds of around 34
kt in the southeast quadrant. On this basis, the system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Chris, the 3rd named storm of the 2018
Atlantic season.


Although the winds associated with the tropical storm have increased
a little, the overall organization of Chris has not changed much
over the past few hours. The low-level center is still exposed to
the north of a broken band of deep convection and the cyclone lacks
an inner-core. Chris is located over very warm SSTs and will
remain so for the next several days. While the broad nature of the
cyclone's circulation and some moderate shear will likely limit the
intensification rate over the next day or so, all of the intensity
guidance indicates that Chris will become a hurricane within about
72-h. By day 4, the intensity forecast is more uncertain,
and depends strongly on the timing of Chris crossing the Gulf
Stream, since the cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as
long as it remains over warm waters. Once extratropical transition
begins, weakening should occur as the wind field broadens. The new
intensity forecast is close to HCCA and IVCN through day 3, and
slightly lower beyond that, closer to the previous forecast.

The track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest
forecast cycle. While Chris is generally expected to continue to
meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days
before accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough
approaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is
highly uncertain. Nearly all of the dynamical models have now
shifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout
most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the
models. Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance
over the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more
significant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern
emerges.


The Air Force reconnaissance plane also measured winds to
gale-force about 20 miles off the coast of North Carolina. These
winds are associated with the tight pressure gradient between
Chris and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. See products
issued by the National Weather Service forecast offices for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 33.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 33.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 32.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 32.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 32.7N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 35.2N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 49.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/080858.shtml

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 8 2018, 08:17 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jul 8 2018, 08:22 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 8 2018, 06:37 AM) *
Not thrilled to see the UKie ensembles looking like this. But, I guess we do need the rain..


Attached Image


EPS says no threat. Edit: for the lower 48, maritime Canada doesn't get missed by most members.


Attached Image


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?s...;dtg=2018070800

Look at the Op run (red line in MOGEPS)

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MaineJay
post Jul 8 2018, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 8 2018, 09:22 AM) *
Look at the Op run (red line in MOGEPS)



I'm struggling with deciding if it's overly enthusiastic about phasing it with the continental trof, or if the professor is onto something. Difficult to disregard the UKie outright with TCs.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 8 2018, 08:41 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jul 8 2018, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 8 2018, 09:41 AM) *
I'm struggling with deciding if it's overly enthusiastic about phasing it with the continental trof, or if the professor is onto something. Difficult to disregard the UKie outright with TCs.

All things considered, I would say the solutions that avoid land are the probable outcome. But we've already seen one missed connection which was supposed to shunt Chris to the NE (continental trough moving through at present) so future involvement with the next trough is still a bit "iffy".

The MREF sets seem to have picked up a few members that scrape by and one that actually look very much like the UKM Op at 00z

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html

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Undertakerson
post Jul 8 2018, 10:18 AM
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"Will"??




QUOTE
000



WTNT43 KNHC 081433
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of
Chris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better
defined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum
winds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity
assigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft
will check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution
satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better
organized with the low-level center now embedded within the
convection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for
the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane
in about 36 hours
in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the
HCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13
degree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition.

Since the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone
has barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to
remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2
days.
A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the
eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris
northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond
72 hours.
The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance
envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 32.9N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 33.0N 74.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 32.5N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 32.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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stxprowl
post Jul 8 2018, 11:47 AM
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Finally some surf on the Atlantic Coast worth watching.
My little live streaming webcam list.

Some from the list:
Asbury Park, NJ
http://www.apboardwalk.com/live/

Brigantine, NJ
http://brigantinebeachlive.com

Playground Pier- Atlantic City, NJ (Good Sound)
http://www.atlanticcitywebcam.com

7th Street Surf Shop- Ocean City, NJ (2 Cams)
http://7thstreetsurfshop.com/wave-cam/

Atlantic Sands Hotel- Rehoboth Beach, DE
http://www.atlanticsandshotel.com/webcam.html

Sea Colony Resort Community- Middlesex Beach, DE
https://www.seacolony.com/beachcam

Clarion Resort Fontainebleau Hotel- Ocean City, MD
https://clarionoc.com/lennys-front-porch-cam/

Days Inn Oceanfront- Ocean City, MD
http://daysinnboardwalk.com/ocean-city-md-hotel-live-cam/

Howard Johnson Hotel- Ocean City, MD
https://hjoceanfrontplaza.com/live-cam/

Virginia Beach, VA (4 Cams)
https://livebeaches.com/virginia-beach-va/webcams/

Corolla Light Resort- Corolla, NC
http://www.corollalightresort.com/corolla-nc-surfcam
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 8 2018, 07:24 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 8 2018, 11:18 AM) *
"Will"??


on to the next one laugh.gif


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MaineJay
post Jul 9 2018, 05:34 AM
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Sucked in some dry air, but also has a bit of an eye.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 9 2018, 05:52 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 9 2018, 06:34 AM) *
Sucked in some dry air, but also has a bit of an eye.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


Sure its not just dry air? It looks like it is transitioning from what was probably a fully tropical entity to sub tropical. Cool imagery though.


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MaineJay
post Jul 9 2018, 06:07 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 9 2018, 06:52 AM) *
Sure its not just dry air? It looks like it is transitioning from what was probably a fully tropical entity to sub tropical. Cool imagery though.



I can't say unequivocally, but looks like an eye to me.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


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MaineJay
post Jul 9 2018, 06:12 AM
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This microwave shot is about 3 hours old, but shows an eye like feature with decent convection on the west side of a potential eyewall, but not wrapped around the center.

Attached Image


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...OD=1degreeticks


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MaineJay
post Jul 9 2018, 07:34 AM
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I don't have time to make a gif, but Chris looks healthy.


Attached Image


Loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...oop_speed_ms=80


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StL weatherjunki...
post Jul 9 2018, 09:15 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 9 2018, 08:34 AM) *
I don't have time to make a gif, but Chris looks healthy.


Attached Image


Loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...oop_speed_ms=80

Yup, current recon flight found a 999 mb center and peak flight level winds of ~60 knots so he's a respectable tropical storm. If the eye can close off then rapid intensification is possible, but for the time being gradual strengthening seems to be most likely.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jul 9 2018, 09:19 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 9 2018, 06:52 AM) *
Sure its not just dry air? It looks like it is transitioning from what was probably a fully tropical entity to sub tropical. Cool imagery though.

Chris is currently a symmetric warm core system (i.e. fully tropical), but will undergo extratropical transition once the trough picks him up late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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stretchct
post Jul 9 2018, 11:48 AM
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Chris is just reaching the extended radar range.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 9 2018, 12:18 PM
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Watching this Buoy 41002 South Hatteras which is just south of the storm now. Has had 50kt gusts.
Also noticing the water temperature which was 82.5 on the 6th 81.3 yesterday at 12:50 and is now 79.2.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 9 2018, 04:07 PM
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He does show well, that's for sure

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stretchct
post Jul 9 2018, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 9 2018, 01:18 PM) *
Watching this Buoy 41002 South Hatteras which is just south of the storm now. Has had 50kt gusts.
Also noticing the water temperature which was 82.5 on the 6th 81.3 yesterday at 12:50 and is now 79.2.

Down to 78.3 now.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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