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> December 6 - 15(?) Cold/LES Potential
PGM
post Dec 10 2017, 12:52 PM
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Major lake effect event late Tuesday?
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travis3000
post Dec 10 2017, 01:08 PM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Dec 10 2017, 12:52 PM) *
Major lake effect event late Tuesday?


Not major, but I am watching it. Right now looking like the heaviest accumulations will be in a band off Huron from Goderich down to Lucan and possibly London. Also some activity off GB from Meaford and Blue Mountains down to Collingwood, Creemore, Stayner. Will keep an eye on it. But not expecting anything overly impressive.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 10 2017, 06:43 PM
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The FIM maps show a brief warmup for the Great Lakes 17th/18th/19th and then cold again. No need to end this thread and start a new one.
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Lake effect
post Dec 10 2017, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Dec 10 2017, 06:43 PM) *
The FIM maps show a brief warmup for the Great Lakes 17th/18th/19th and then cold again. No need to end this thread and start a new one.


I say close it...it's cursing us! Had sod all so far.
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puttin
post Dec 10 2017, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 7 2017, 10:06 PM) *
Some incredible 10cm/hour accumulations in Montreal River right now from this epic squall.

[attachment=334599:Screen_S...03.40_PM.jpg]

from living in the Sault, and visiting, I can say, that highway 17 is a nasty part of nature, where closing the highway is normal....it is nature like we can't see.. Lake Superior at its best
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Lake effect
post Dec 10 2017, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 10 2017, 06:56 PM) *
I say close it...it's cursing us! Had sod all so far.


I spoke too soon. Really wish I wasn't in stupid Atlanta, this is going to drop 10-15cms on Barrie:

Attached File  Screenshot_20171210_192711.jpg ( 233.7K ) Number of downloads: 2
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PGM
post Dec 10 2017, 08:20 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 10 2017, 07:29 PM) *
I spoke too soon. Really wish I wasn't in stupid Atlanta, this is going to drop 10-15cms on Barrie:

Attached File  Screenshot_20171210_192711.jpg ( 233.7K ) Number of downloads: 2


Wasn't there a few inches of snow in Atlanta on Friday? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by PGM: Dec 10 2017, 08:21 PM
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travis3000
post Dec 10 2017, 08:56 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 10 2017, 07:29 PM) *
I spoke too soon. Really wish I wasn't in stupid Atlanta, this is going to drop 10-15cms on Barrie:

Attached File  Screenshot_20171210_192711.jpg ( 233.7K ) Number of downloads: 2


Nope about 1/10th of that actually. Measured 1.5cm here in south Barrie from that cold front.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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PGM
post Dec 11 2017, 09:22 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 10 2017, 01:08 PM) *
Not major, but I am watching it. Right now looking like the heaviest accumulations will be in a band off Huron from Goderich down to Lucan and possibly London. Also some activity off GB from Meaford and Blue Mountains down to Collingwood, Creemore, Stayner. Will keep an eye on it. But not expecting anything overly impressive.


Alright, thanks for letting me know
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snowbelt
post Dec 11 2017, 10:55 AM
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Looking forward to a couple days here of some decent snow fall . We received 5cm over the last 24hrs (snow plow woke me up this morning) Looking at some wind forecasts and its shaping up to be a good forecast for squalls in my area Tuesday afternoon/night . Any wind blowing N or NNW off of G Bay hits this area hard . As for the Huron squalls , its still looking like the Goderich to London to Sarnia area is going to get hit . I'm sure Travis will chime in here with an updated map for this event . (love the maps)
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PGM
post Dec 11 2017, 11:21 AM
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Short range models are showing up to a foot of snow through Wednesday morning off the Huron squall.

This post has been edited by PGM: Dec 11 2017, 11:21 AM
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snowbelt
post Dec 11 2017, 11:42 AM
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^ I believe it PGM . Im thinking the Collingwood area as well .
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PGM
post Dec 11 2017, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Dec 11 2017, 11:42 AM) *
^ I believe it PGM . Im thinking the Collingwood area as well .


Yup! Watch up, and EC agrees.

QUOTE
Snow squalls are expected to develop. Under the snow squall bands, visibilities will be significantly reduced due to the heavy snow, and snow will quickly accumulate.

Conditions are expected to become quite favourable for snow squalls beginning Tuesday morning in the wake of tonight's ALberta clipper.

Snow squalls will be ushered in from Lake Huron by strong and gusty northwest winds Tuesday into Wednesday.

Snowfall amounts near 15 cm per 12 hours are likely in the strongest snow squalls.

There is potential for lake effect snow bands to become stationary for several hours at a time Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. If this happens, local snowfall amounts of 30 cm or more are quite possible in the region, including the City of London.

Motorists should be prepared to change travel plans accordingly.
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 11 2017, 06:40 PM
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And now, the forecast map you've all been waiting for... 7:00 AM EST Christmas morning temperatures...

Attached File  temp_2m_f336.png ( 65.42K ) Number of downloads: 4
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Lake effect
post Dec 11 2017, 06:54 PM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Dec 11 2017, 06:40 PM) *
And now, the forecast map you've all been waiting for... 7:00 AM EST Christmas morning temperatures...

Attached File  temp_2m_f336.png ( 65.42K ) Number of downloads: 4


Start a christmas day thread! Certainly looks positive at this stage...I'm away this year, so Barrie is guarenteed a perfect white christmas.
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Lake effect
post Dec 11 2017, 07:05 PM
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18Z GFS showing potential for some LES middle of next week. Long way out, but this period has been a bit of a let down so far with LES, really would love to see a good blast before I head back to the soggy dreariness of blightey for Christmas.
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Lake effect
post Dec 12 2017, 06:25 AM
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This looks good for Barrie and folks just to the West Wednesday afternoon and evening. The models struggle too pick this up but I've seen this setup produce steady squalls that go 30-40 kms inland, last a few hours and produce 10-15 cms. Really hard to say exactly where it will hit, but worth keeping an eye on.

Attached File  hwn_48.gif ( 30.34K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 12 2017, 06:27 AM
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Lake effect
post Dec 12 2017, 06:33 AM
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And this looks very nice for the middle of next week. 24-36 hours of steady NW winds, could be some places hit the pre-Christmas jackpot, very easy to pick up 30-40 cms, or 2cms. Such are the joys of living in LES land.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png ( 180.11K ) Number of downloads: 4
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PGM
post Dec 12 2017, 11:55 AM
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Pretty severe blowing snow ongoing. Lake effect should intensify throughout the evening. I've heard 12" definitely a possibility IMBY.
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bwfan
post Dec 12 2017, 12:33 PM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Dec 12 2017, 11:55 AM) *
Pretty severe blowing snow ongoing. Lake effect should intensify throughout the evening. I've heard 12" definitely a possibility IMBY.


Current winds are keeping most of the LES action NE of London - do we expect a SW shift over the afternoon?
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