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> Potent Clipper To Affect Southern & Eastern ON, Monday/Tuesday December 11th/12th
Khaled
post Dec 9 2017, 10:59 AM
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NAM and GFS 12z updates are not as good. Precipitation quantities down to the half almost!

We are at a general 3-5 cm now!
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snowgeek93
post Dec 9 2017, 01:50 PM
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AccuWeather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...eekend/70003505

Some models seem to be trending north with this clipper. May not bode too well for the area and certainly reduces the chances of getting 5-10cm here.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 9 2017, 02:17 PM
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Solid run of the 12z ECM. Low pressure centre in a good area for best accumulation for Golden Horseshoe. Important that euro is going this way.
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markj138
post Dec 9 2017, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 9 2017, 02:17 PM) *
Solid run of the 12z ECM. Low pressure centre in a good area for best accumulation for Golden Horseshoe. Important that euro is going this way.


Here is the 12z ECM snow map

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_ne_84.png ( 174.37K ) Number of downloads: 19




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snowgeek93
post Dec 9 2017, 03:19 PM
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Not a bad look on 12z ECM or the 12z CMC for that matter...

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_14.png ( 144.53K ) Number of downloads: 7


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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puttin
post Dec 9 2017, 03:58 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Dec 9 2017, 03:19 PM) *
Not a bad look on 12z ECM or the 12z CMC for that matter...

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_14.png ( 144.53K ) Number of downloads: 7

I am liking it.... Can someone post snow amounts when we get closer? Thanks!!
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Lake effect
post Dec 9 2017, 05:39 PM
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18Z really fizzling out on the GFS. This is good for me smile.gif I've been in Atlanta laughing at the locals trying to cope with 10cms, and wishing that I'd booked my flight a day later so I wouldn't have had to come in the first place and be working over the weekend. The last thing I want is to be kept here another day. Sorry guys, I will continue doing my anti-snow dance till Tuesday afternoon!
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 9 2017, 05:43 PM
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18z runs of the amarican models (GFS/NAM) look somewhat lacking in moisture. Obviously ECM and CMC look good accumulation wise. This was the other way around a couple days ago. We will need to see how things look tomorrow to get a better idea of strength.
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travis3000
post Dec 9 2017, 06:01 PM
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18Z GFS down to 2-6cm for most of Southern ON. A more northern track.

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_09_at_5.56.49_PM.jpg ( 1.34MB ) Number of downloads: 3


18z NAM (all snowfall from today right through to next Tuesday night)

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_09_at_6.04.36_PM.jpg ( 553.93K ) Number of downloads: 6


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 9 2017, 06:05 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 9 2017, 06:29 PM
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Model mayhem in full effect, not exactly an encouraging sign. Too bad we couldn't lock in the CMC projection tongue.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Apocalypse
post Dec 9 2017, 07:35 PM
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QUOTE
Statements
4:34 PM EST Saturday 09 December 2017
Special weather statement in effect for:

City of Toronto
Potential for some brief heavy snow along a cold front late Sunday. A more widespread snowfall likely Monday and Monday night.

An Arctic cold front will cross Southern Ontario later in the day on Sunday into the evening. It will likely be accompanied by a brief burst of heavier snow with reduced visibilities affecting travel. A coating of a couple of centimetres in a short timeframe is possible in some areas.

On Monday, an approaching Alberta Clipper is expected to deliver the first widespread snowfall to virtually all of Southern Ontario. General snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 centimetres appear likely at this early juncture. Although localized slightly higher amounts are possible, snowfall warnings are not expected (where at least 15 centimetres would have to fall within 12 hours).

Environment Canada will monitor these weather features and update statements accordingly.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.
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puttin
post Dec 9 2017, 10:30 PM
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I will look forward to whatever comes my way... Thanks
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markj138
post Dec 9 2017, 11:53 PM
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This threat is falling a part as fast as Anthony Farnell`s December forecast laugh.gif
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 10 2017, 01:30 AM
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The 12Z GFS text ouput reaches to 15Z Tuesday. I dug up one of my bash scripts, and fumbled around for a bit before re-discovering the correct launch parameters. Note to self: document your scripts. Anyhow, it looks like Waterloo and London will be getting something on Monday and Tuesday. Note that the GFS output is in Imperail units.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 12/09 12Z   23      9    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 12/09 15Z   27     18    0.00 -SN     27     23    0.0
    6 12/09 18Z   29     18    0.01 -SN     29     23    0.0  0.01
    9 12/09 21Z   28     19    0.01 -SN     29     28    0.0  0.02
   12 12/10 00Z   26     21    0.01 -SN     29     26    0.0  0.03
   15 12/10 03Z   26     22    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.0  0.04
   18 12/10 06Z   25     23    0.00 -SN     26     24    0.0
   21 12/10 09Z   22     17    0.00         26     22    0.0
   24 12/10 12Z   23     16    0.01 -SN     26     22    0.0  0.01
   27 12/10 15Z   24     14    0.00 -SN     24     22    0.0
   30 12/10 18Z   26     16    0.01 -SN     26     22    0.0  0.01
   33 12/10 21Z   25     19    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.0  0.02
   36 12/11 00Z   26     22    0.02 -SN     26     25    0.2  0.04    0.2
   39 12/11 03Z   27     24    0.02 -SN     27     26    0.2  0.06    0.4
   42 12/11 06Z   19     13    0.02 -SN     27     19    0.3  0.08    0.7
   45 12/11 09Z   19     15    0.00         19     19    0.0
   48 12/11 12Z   17     14    0.00         19     17    0.0
   51 12/11 15Z   20     15    0.00         20     17    0.0
   54 12/11 18Z   24     15    0.00         24     17    0.0
   57 12/11 21Z   23     18    0.01 -SN     24     23    0.2  0.01    0.2
   60 12/12 00Z   22     20    0.02 -SN     24     22    0.3  0.03    0.5
   63 12/12 03Z   22     21    0.03 -SN     22     22    0.4  0.06    0.9
   66 12/12 06Z   23     23    0.03 -SN     23     22    0.4  0.09    1.3
   69 12/12 09Z   24     23    0.02 -SN     24     23    0.4  0.11    1.7
   72 12/12 12Z   24     19    0.02 -SN     27     23    0.2  0.13    1.9
   75 12/12 15Z   19     12    0.00 -SN     24     19    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 12/09 12Z   26     12    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 12/09 15Z   29     17    0.01 -SN     29     26    0.0  0.01
    6 12/09 18Z   30     17    0.00 -SN     31     26    0.0
    9 12/09 21Z   28     19    0.01 -SN     30     28    0.0  0.01
   12 12/10 00Z   26     20    0.00 -SN     30     26    0.0
   15 12/10 03Z   27     23    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.0  0.01
   18 12/10 06Z   27     25    0.00         27     26    0.0
   21 12/10 09Z   27     22    0.01 -SN     28     27    0.1  0.01    0.1
   24 12/10 12Z   23     14    0.00 -SN     28     23    0.0
   27 12/10 15Z   24     15    0.00         24     23    0.0
   30 12/10 18Z   27     16    0.00         27     23    0.0
   33 12/10 21Z   27     19    0.01 -SN     27     27    0.0  0.01
   36 12/11 00Z   26     21    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.1  0.02    0.1
   39 12/11 03Z   27     21    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.0  0.03
   42 12/11 06Z   26     22    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.4  0.04    0.4
   45 12/11 09Z   24     17    0.01 -SN     26     24    0.0  0.05
   48 12/11 12Z   21     16    0.00 -SN     26     21    0.0
   51 12/11 15Z   24     14    0.00         24     21    0.0
   54 12/11 18Z   26     14    0.00         26     21    0.0
   57 12/11 21Z   25     19    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.1  0.01    0.1
   60 12/12 00Z   24     22    0.03 -SN     26     24    0.3  0.04    0.4
   63 12/12 03Z   25     24    0.03 -SN     25     24    0.5  0.07    0.9
   66 12/12 06Z   26     25    0.02 -SN     26     24    0.2  0.09    1.1
   69 12/12 09Z   28     26    0.02 -SN     28     26    0.3  0.11    1.4
   72 12/12 12Z   24     18    0.02 -SN     29     24    0.4  0.13    1.8
   75 12/12 15Z   19     11    0.01 -SN     23     19    0.0  0.14
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 10 2017, 01:40 AM
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A Special Weather Statement issued by EC Saturday night... https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.htm...90503ws1171cwto

QUOTE
10:45 PM EST Saturday 09 December 2017
Special weather statement in effect for:

City of Toronto

Potential for some brief heavy snow along a cold front late Sunday. A more widespread snowfall likely Monday and Monday night.

An Arctic cold front will cross Southern Ontario later in the day on Sunday into the evening. It will likely be accompanied by a brief burst of heavier snow with reduced visibilities affecting travel. A coating of a couple of centimetres in a short timeframe is possible in some areas.

On Monday, an approaching Alberta Clipper is expected to deliver the first widespread snowfall to virtually all of Southern Ontario. General snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 centimetres appear likely at this early juncture. Although localized slightly higher amounts are possible, snowfall warnings are not expected (where at least 15 centimetres would have to fall within 12 hours).

Environment Canada will monitor these weather features and update statements accordingly.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.
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Lake effect
post Dec 10 2017, 05:47 AM
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GFS, NAM ans CMC all saying 2-3 inches now. I will take that, shouldn't be any flght cancellatiions now.
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snowbelt
post Dec 10 2017, 10:07 AM
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Nobody has really talked about it but its looking like some possible snow squalls developing Tuesday night in the Huron/G Bay snow belts .

This post has been edited by snowbelt: Dec 10 2017, 10:08 AM
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travis3000
post Dec 10 2017, 10:39 AM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Dec 10 2017, 10:07 AM) *
Nobody has really talked about it but its looking like some possible snow squalls developing Tuesday night in the Huron/G Bay snow belts .


I've been watching it very closely. Expect a thread by the end of the day.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Dec 10 2017, 10:41 AM
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06z GFS basically showing 3-6cm of snow here in Simcoe County. More in parts of Eastern Ontario (over 10cm).


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 10 2017, 10:49 AM
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12z GFS looking stronger than the previous runs. Closer to how it looked a few days ago. Will be interesting to see if it starts a trend more like what it had been showing. 12z NAM also looked better.
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