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> LES outbreak Dec 20th-22nd, Medium range probable
Lake effect
post Dec 13 2017, 11:39 AM
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Seeing as the current LES thread expires this week, thought I'd start a new one. This one has me really excited for this area (Barrie), and it's been in the models a few days. I'm liking the look of it with plenty of NW winds in it, and the potential for the setting up of strong stable squalls penetrating over 100kms inland and dropping 30-50cms on some locales. Maps will no doubt materialize as this one nears (followed by potential for big storm).


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png ( 199.36K ) Number of downloads: 6

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Lake effect
post Dec 13 2017, 08:08 PM
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18Z...been there now for a few days. Yummy.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png ( 192.1K ) Number of downloads: 6
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Lake effect
post Dec 14 2017, 08:03 AM
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May be a little more shortlived as the next system moves in quicker, may also have more of a West to East flavor.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png ( 180.66K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png ( 131.7K ) Number of downloads: 4
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Lake effect
post Dec 14 2017, 01:20 PM
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Still showing a good 24-36 hour LES outbreak. This run is the best so far from a Barrie perspective.

Attached File  IMG_0033.PNG ( 179.26K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Lake effect
post Dec 15 2017, 06:36 AM
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This has been reasonably consistant. The variation has been that the direction has gone slightly more WNW at the beginning, and that the air will not be quite so frigid, so the amounts may be less, however, I am expecting many areas off Huron and GB to get anywhere between 20-50cms over the 36 hours that this runs. I will create a preliminary map soon, as I'm sure will Travis.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png ( 196.77K ) Number of downloads: 3
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Lake effect
post Dec 15 2017, 12:21 PM
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This could be a pretty descent event for Barrie. Still too far out to really pin down, but the maps have been fairly consistant and with this kind of wind setup, we could be in for some fairly nasty squalls:

Attached File  hwn_120.gif ( 34.7K ) Number of downloads: 1
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Lake effect
post Dec 15 2017, 05:35 PM
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Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png ( 187.03K ) Number of downloads: 3


GFS hasn't really changed since Monday. Could be the seasons biggest squall so far, extending hundreds of kms across the lakes.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 15 2017, 05:36 PM
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travis3000
post Dec 15 2017, 07:08 PM
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Im keeping my eye on this, will issue my first preliminary map this weekend.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2017, 04:58 PM
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Starting to look like a non-event, although we may still see a quick 10-20 cms in the usual LES locales, just not a major 50cm+ event.
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Lake effect
post Dec 18 2017, 10:32 AM
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My predictions for the LES mini-event this week. After this system has passed through, winds will move from Westerly all the way through Northerly. They start out strong, and then weaken, but should splatter the usual beneficiaries of these types of windshield wiper squalls. As always, squalls are very difficult to predict, so this is a rough idea:

Wind timings (the squalls seem to lag these by a few hours):

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3k NAM

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Attached File  007Z_20th.png ( 193.1K ) Number of downloads: 0


My predictions:

Timings
Red - tomorrow evening into early hours on Wednesday
Black - early hours on Wednesday through mid morning
Blue - mid morning Wednesday then dying out later in afternoon

Attached File  prediction_timing.jpg ( 266.57K ) Number of downloads: 5


Amounts:

Red - 7-20 cms, with largest accumulations close to the lakes

Blue trace - 10 cms

Attached File  prediction_totals.jpg ( 261.75K ) Number of downloads: 5
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travis3000
post Dec 18 2017, 11:56 AM
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Good maps Lake Effect! I was a bit disappointed with this outbreak it was looking to be much more promising at one point. I still think 20cm is likely in areas closer to Lake Huron and GB. More of a windshield wiper effect though as you pointed out. A widespread 2-10cm is more likely the case.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Dec 18 2017, 12:13 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 18 2017, 11:56 AM) *
Good maps Lake Effect! I was a bit disappointed with this outbreak it was looking to be much more promising at one point. I still think 20cm is likely in areas closer to Lake Huron and GB. More of a windshield wiper effect though as you pointed out. A widespread 2-10cm is more likely the case.


Thanks, praise indeed from the master of LES maps!

Yes, dissapointing event. Looking ahead, this is not going to be a classic LES season if the SE ridge becomes as predominant as Mike shows from the Euro seasonals. Be a case of grabbing the occassional bit like this.
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Lake effect
post Dec 19 2017, 11:07 AM
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I'm surprised EC are only calling for 5cms tonight, and no watches. I know temps aren't very low, but even their own model is picking up a hefty squall. I still expect 10-15 cms.

Attached File  rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png ( 175.24K ) Number of downloads: 5
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snowbelt
post Dec 19 2017, 02:40 PM
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I agree with you guys , with those wind profiles I would expect some decent squalls to form off of Huron late this evening . Here's hoping , it has been a downer season so far for LES.
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travis3000
post Dec 19 2017, 09:32 PM
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Im debating whether to do a map for this one. My mind has been focusing on the storm at the end of the week. Surface temps remain above 0c right now, sitting at 2-3C. I imagine some of the bands will have wet snow which will make it iffy on sticking. As the night goes on the temps will drop below 0C creating a less hostile environment. Winds will be more WNW and then become more N by tomorrow. This will shift the energy south and take the band with it. Right now I'd be on the lookout for anywhere between Kincardine/Sauble Beach in-land across the Dundalk Highlands, Collingwood, Blue Mountains and across to Barrie where 10cm is most possible. Less as you go towards Hwy 89 and south.

Edit: Did one smile.gif
Attached File  Squalls_Dec_19_20_2017.jpg ( 171.69K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 19 2017, 09:42 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Dec 19 2017, 10:52 PM
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I'm going out there and predicting a very significant squall forming before dawn and hammering most of Barrie with 20cms or more looking at this wind. It veers a little bit from WNW to NW over several hours, with strong wind...temps are the only thing holdi g tbis bad boy back:

Attached File  hwn_09.gif ( 34.93K ) Number of downloads: 1
)
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Lake effect
post Dec 20 2017, 11:15 AM
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This turned into a nothingburger for GB...EC were right not issue a watch. Bit more active off Huron.

These darned squalls are difficult to predict!
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snowbelt
post Dec 20 2017, 11:24 AM
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Nothing here really either . Light flurries now with maybe 2-3 cm of accumulation .
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travis3000
post Dec 20 2017, 03:42 PM
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Yeah nothing but a trace here in south Barrie. A bust for sure, I had that feeling it could go this way after I did up my map last night I was close to retracting it after reanylizing the data. What can you do , you win some and lose some.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Dec 20 2017, 03:58 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 20 2017, 03:42 PM) *
Yeah nothing but a trace here in south Barrie. A bust for sure, I had that feeling it could go this way after I did up my map last night I was close to retracting it after reanylizing the data. What can you do , you win some and lose some.


At least you didn't predict 20cms sad.gif mind you, it was after a work christmas doo, so my judgement wasn't at its best.
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