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> December 21-23 Central and Eastern Canada storm, Happening now
Lake effect
post Dec 15 2017, 07:24 AM
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Might as well get this one started as it has been in the models all week, and will determine what the landscape looks like for Christmas, (and whether I will be spending Christmas here or in the UK!). It has been flip-flopping between mostly snow, to a messy mix. It now seems to be starting as rain, with a switch over giving varying amounts of snow, but still lots of time to run on this.

06z OP GFS:

hr 168

Attached File  06_GFS_hr_168.png ( 190.22K ) Number of downloads: 3


hr 180

Attached File  06_GFS_hr_180.png ( 193.95K ) Number of downloads: 1


hr 192
Attached File  06_GFS_hr_192.png ( 192.22K ) Number of downloads: 2


The East

Attached File  NF_map.png ( 159.23K ) Number of downloads: 1


snow depth change

Attached File  snow_depth_change.png ( 148.38K ) Number of downloads: 10


GFS ensembles

Attached File  ooZ_15th_ensembles.gif ( 128.25K ) Number of downloads: 3


mean GFS ensemble

Attached File  GFS_ensemble_mean.png ( 114.06K ) Number of downloads: 1


Euro ensemble

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png ( 121.92K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 21 2017, 09:46 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 15 2017, 10:13 AM
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Ensemble means look better than the op. Models are going to have every possible solution for the next few days. Important to not look at every run and every change as the way itís going to turn out.

Not sure I 100% like where the initial wave of moisture starts out for this system though. We will need the cold to come in before this system tracks in for this not to be a mix type storm.
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Lake effect
post Dec 15 2017, 12:16 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 15 2017, 10:13 AM) *
Ensemble means look better than the op. Models are going to have every possible solution for the next few days. Important to not look at every run and every change as the way itís going to turn out.

Not sure I 100% like where the initial wave of moisture starts out for this system though. We will need the cold to come in before this system tracks in for this not to be a mix type storm.


I think you're spot on there. It will be all over the place, but worth tracking. I am inclined to think it will be a mixed event, but hopefully will whiten everything up on the backend.
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Lake effect
post Dec 15 2017, 06:06 PM
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Still there. Still very close for our area...mixing is going to be an issue on the southern part of this.
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travis3000
post Dec 15 2017, 07:07 PM
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CMC shows a great snowstorm everywhere in Southern ON. Even the GFS is showing snow up our way. I don't see any models depicting rain right now.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 15 2017, 07:26 PM
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It looks to get cold again following this storm so a snowy solution would be ideal for all of us. Still another week of model chaos to endure until then.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 15 2017, 07:55 PM
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Euro depicts the centre of low pressure moving through S ON with the 12z run. That would be a mix situation. 18z GFS would also have some mixing but it doesnít need to move south much for it to be mostly snow. Interesting that models nudged south with the latest runs.
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2017, 07:21 AM
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The GFS has maintained quite a consistant track in the last few runs. Could all change of course:

Attached File  gfs_asnowd24_neus_23.png ( 134.56K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_asnowd24_neus_25.png ( 142.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_30.png ( 167.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


All 3 major models are pretty much aligned with track (and the ensembles look very similar), which is unusual this far out, but they differ in timing, with the GFS earliest and the Euro coming in 12 hours slower. I'm hoping the GFS is right, won't effect my flight if it's all over by midday Friday.

00Z Sat 23rd GFS

Attached File  gfs_z500_mslp_us_28.png ( 139.21K ) Number of downloads: 2


CMC

Attached File  gem_z500_mslp_us_29.png ( 130.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


Euro

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png ( 145.1K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 16 2017, 07:22 AM
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snowball
post Dec 16 2017, 07:32 AM
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That scenario would make for horrible travel conditions along the 401 corridor over the holidays...

Will be fun to watch this bump around if the models have changed that much today.

This post has been edited by snowball: Dec 16 2017, 07:33 AM
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2017, 07:47 AM
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QUOTE(snowball @ Dec 16 2017, 07:32 AM) *
That scenario would make for horrible travel conditions along the 401 corridor over the holidays...

Will be fun to watch this bump around if the models have changed that much today.


Yes, Ottawa and Montreal would be a mess especially as this would come Friday afternoon and evening. Most of my colleagues are finished by Thursday, so maybe many will get ahead of this. However, flying into or out of YUL or YOW will be an absolute nightmare, especially as this will be one of the busiest days of the year. Lots of people will not get out. Could stil, happen to me of course. If the Euro timing is right, and this hits Toronto hard, my flight may get cancelled.
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 16 2017, 09:22 AM
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CMC really has the best track for major accumulation for lots of areas of S ON. ECM is just too far west but very close. SW ON will probably see more rain and mixing from this system but just NE and including the GTA are still fully in the running for all or mostly snow atm.
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2017, 09:27 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 16 2017, 09:22 AM) *
CMC really has the best track for major accumulation for lots of areas of S ON. ECM is just too far west but very close. SW ON will probably see more rain and mixing from this system but just NE and including the GTA are still fully in the running for all or mostly snow atm.


That dividing line won't be nailed down till Wednesday 12Z run, but watching it wobble back and forth will keep us on a roller coaster for the next 4-5 days!
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 16 2017, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 16 2017, 09:27 AM) *
That dividing line won't be nailed down till Wednesday 12Z run, but watching it wobble back and forth will keep us on a roller coaster for the next 4-5 days!


Yeah, these storms that are right on the edge of precip type are always the best to track aren't they? Lol
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MrMusic
post Dec 16 2017, 10:08 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 16 2017, 09:41 AM) *
Yeah, these storms that are right on the edge of precip type are always the best to track aren't they? Lol


gonna be interesting as we get closer.
The CMC has a soaking rain here all night Christmas Eve on todays run. No thanks!

But at least models are showing 2 storms here. This one, and a Christmas Eve/Christmas Day one.

If they can track just south of the lakes we'd be in business! Nice to have some potential to watch during that time.
Overall pattern is worth watching the next few days. Not necessarily OP runs showing placement of the storms.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Dec 16 2017, 10:22 AM
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I'm not taking any model seriously until Wednesday at least. Of course it's nice to see such potential for many of us if the storm tracks just south of the lakes.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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travis3000
post Dec 16 2017, 12:47 PM
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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





12z GFS has a nice 10-20cm for my area right down to the GTA not bad at all.

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_16_at_12.47.05_PM.jpg ( 527.32K ) Number of downloads: 6


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 16 2017, 12:47 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Dec 16 2017, 12:50 PM
Post #17




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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





New 12z CMC takes it way north into Muskoka and Sudbury area. Rain for all of Southern Ontario

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_16_at_12.48.42_PM.jpg ( 463.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


2m air temps


Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_16_at_12.49.52_PM.jpg ( 605.15K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 16 2017, 02:04 PM
Post #18




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From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





I'd be more concerned if models kept trending north throughout next week. Plenty of time for change and the GFS looks golden for the area btw tongue.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 16 2017, 02:07 PM
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Member No.: 28,061





I think where the storm originates could be a problem. It starts out very far north and it would have to dig very far south for the final solution to be a track to the south of the lakes. Usually a storm that originates where this one does has some degree of strong WAA that affect precip type in ON.
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MrMusic
post Dec 16 2017, 03:06 PM
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currently the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles bring the low pressure literally directly overhead down here along the West End of the Lake.
CMC Ensembles has the low well north through cottage country.

Lots of time to watch the pattern. The gigantic cold H pressure that looks to slide south into the upper Plains is going to certainly be a feature to watch. If it can expand SE enough, it could press this storm to the SE. Some insanely cold temps on tap for the upper midwest according to current guidance with that arctic H.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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