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> December 21-23 Central and Eastern Canada storm, Happening now
snowgeek93
post Dec 16 2017, 04:14 PM
Post #21




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Yeah, if that arctic high swings far enough south it could push this system in a more favourable direction.

The last week of December is looking cold again, maybe some clippers or storms could come out of that period as well?


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 71.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 42
Days with Snow Cover: 32

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 23.4cm (38.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2017, 06:05 PM
Post #22




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🤢

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png ( 198.99K ) Number of downloads: 6
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markj138
post Dec 16 2017, 06:12 PM
Post #23




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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 16 2017, 06:05 PM) *
🤢

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png ( 198.99K ) Number of downloads: 6


The 18Z GFS really shows the potential with this up coming pattern as we get waves of moisture streaming into the area around the western edge of that SE ridge,if we can get that -EPO/western high a little stronger we could be on the cold side or jackpot zone.
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2017, 06:17 PM
Post #24




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I'm just seeing lots of ZR, followed by more ZR for Christmas Day. Hopefully this won't happen, rather just rain.
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snowgeek93
post Dec 16 2017, 06:21 PM
Post #25




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QUOTE(markj138 @ Dec 16 2017, 06:12 PM) *
The 18Z GFS really shows the potential with this up coming pattern as we get waves of moisture streaming into the area around the western edge of that SE ridge,if we can get that -EPO/western high a little stronger we could be on the cold side or jackpot zone.

If we could just get these storms to track more south like over the Appalachians instead of cutting too far north we'd be golden. I really miss patterns like 2008, 2011 or 2014 where this was common. Really hope we're not heading into a repeat of last January when practically all storms cut too far NW for us in Southern Ontario.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 71.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 42
Days with Snow Cover: 32

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 23.4cm (38.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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markj138
post Dec 16 2017, 06:47 PM
Post #26




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Dec 16 2017, 06:21 PM) *
If we could just get these storms to track more south like over the Appalachians instead of cutting too far north we'd be golden. I really miss patterns like 2008, 2011 or 2014 where this was common. Really hope we're not heading into a repeat of last January when practically all storms cut too far NW for us in Southern Ontario.


Its a fine balance between the Western ridge & the SE ridge,if the Western ridge is a little more prominent in digging into the West like it was on the 12Z run then we are in business,i believe Mr Music alluded to this in an earlier post & bigmt done a write about this on Snow Lovers yesterday.
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weatherman 23
post Dec 16 2017, 09:12 PM
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deja vu of 2013 with that ice storm
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MrMusic
post Dec 16 2017, 10:09 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Dec 16 2017, 06:47 PM) *
Its a fine balance between the Western ridge & the SE ridge,if the Western ridge is a little more prominent in digging into the West like it was on the 12Z run then we are in business,i believe Mr Music alluded to this in an earlier post & bigmt done a write about this on Snow Lovers yesterday.


You're exactly right. The balancing act between these two ridges will determine where these storms go.
Lots of fun coming up this week watching the pattern evolve!


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Dec 16 2017, 10:18 PM
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Posted on winter 17/18
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Attached File  zr_acc.us_ne.png ( 381.71K ) Number of downloads: 6
 
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2017, 10:41 PM
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The very worst weather. Always freaks me out when I go away...will the power fail and cause my sump pumps to fail...what about the alarm, trees? Just don't know what I'm coming back to Just horrible. Had lots last year up here and was hoping for a bit less this year, but seeing that is making my stomach churn

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 16 2017, 10:47 PM
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 17 2017, 12:09 AM
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The GFS text forecasts at charlie.wxcaster.com are only up to the end of the 22nd so far. Southern Ontarion looks to get rain; Ottawa + Montreal + Qebec City look to get a few inches of snow. More details later as the forecast gets into range.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Dec 17 2017, 10:04 AM
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Seems ice has vanished from gfs which is great, don't need that at Christmas.

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snowgeek93
post Dec 17 2017, 10:15 AM
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Looking more and more like a rainstorm for us which sucks dry.gif

I suppose there's still time for change but we were just building up a snowbase and now it's likely to vanish for quite awhile.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 71.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 42
Days with Snow Cover: 32

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 23.4cm (38.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Lake effect
post Dec 17 2017, 12:38 PM
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12Z has some ice back for north of the 401 up to cottage country, but not so prolonged. Soaking rain after it, then some snow for Christmas day maybe. All in the air at the moment, but does look now like a mostly rain event for many in Ontario.
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travis3000
post Dec 17 2017, 04:45 PM
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Yeah I saw that, soaking rain on the 12z GFS after a bit of ice before hand. Its a washout for all of Southern Eastern and Central Ontario with highs in the 5-10C range widespread. Let's hope that isn't the case as it would be a snow eater for even the snowbelts.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 17 2017, 05:28 PM
Post #36




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Ouch... unsure.gif

18z GFS

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 200.76K ) Number of downloads: 12




--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 71.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 42
Days with Snow Cover: 32

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 23.4cm (38.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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markj138
post Dec 17 2017, 06:35 PM
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Pretty much worst case scenario on all models now,instead of the two ridges battling it out the SE wins out until around Christmas which means warm & wet & then around the 27th the Western ridge over powers the pattern & we get cold & dry.
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Lake effect
post Dec 17 2017, 07:15 PM
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Still time for change...but at this stage😣😢😭🤢

It's times like these I don't miss he who shall not be named...we can wail and moan and no one to tell us off smile.gif love his blog though.
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Apocalypse
post Dec 17 2017, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Dec 17 2017, 05:28 PM) *
Ouch... unsure.gif

18z GFS

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 200.76K ) Number of downloads: 12


Does that count as a GLC?
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MrMusic
post Dec 17 2017, 08:20 PM
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The way this thing is trending, Central Manitoba better get the snow blowers ready


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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