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> December 21-23 Central and Eastern Canada storm, Happening now
knorthern_knight
post Dec 17 2017, 10:32 PM
Post #41




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





The full storm is still beyond the extreme end of the GFS text forecasts (12Z of the 23rd). But the beginning is withiin range. It starts as snow, turning to rain, with some sites showing 1/3rd to almost 1/2 an inch of rain in a 3 hour period!!! If that actually happens, the rain plus melting snow might lead to localized flooding. Here's what's available so far... NOTE: THE STORM CONTINUES BEYOND 12Z OF THE 23rd. This is simply as far as the forecast goes.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 17DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   99 12/21 15Z   23     20    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.1  0.01    0.1
  102 12/21 18Z   26     20    0.00 -SN     26     21    0.0
  105 12/21 21Z   26     21    0.00         27     26    0.0
  108 12/22 00Z   25     22    0.01 -SN     27     25    0.0  0.01
  111 12/22 03Z   25     23    0.02 -SN     25     25    0.4  0.03    0.4
  114 12/22 06Z   26     24    0.02 -SN     26     25    0.3  0.05    0.7
  117 12/22 09Z   27     25    0.00         27     26    0.0
  120 12/22 12Z   28     25    0.01 -PL     28     26    0.1  0.01    0.1
  123 12/22 15Z   29     27    0.02 -FZRN   29     28    0.0  0.03
  126 12/22 18Z   32     30    0.03 -RA     32     28    0.0  0.06
  129 12/22 21Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.08
  132 12/23 00Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     32    0.0  0.09
  135 12/23 03Z   38     37    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.10
  138 12/23 06Z   41     40    0.13 -RA     41     37    0.0  0.23
  141 12/23 09Z   45     44    0.21 RA      45     41    0.0  0.44
  144 12/23 12Z   41     37    0.05 -RA     48     40    0.0  0.49

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 17DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  117 12/22 09Z   28     25    0.01 -SN     28     27    0.0  0.01
  120 12/22 12Z   29     26    0.01 -FZRN   29     27    0.0  0.02
  123 12/22 15Z   32     30    0.01 -RA     32     29    0.0  0.03
  126 12/22 18Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     36     29    0.0  0.05
  129 12/22 21Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.06
  132 12/23 00Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.09
  135 12/23 03Z   40     39    0.03 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.12
  138 12/23 06Z   43     42    0.21 -RA     43     39    0.0  0.33
  141 12/23 09Z   47     46    0.30 RA      47     44    0.0  0.63
  144 12/23 12Z   39     35    0.03 RA      48     39    0.0  0.66

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 17DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  108 12/22 00Z   28     20    0.01         29     28    0.1  0.01    0.1
  111 12/22 03Z   28     23    0.02 -SN     28     28    0.2  0.03    0.3
  114 12/22 06Z   28     24    0.01 -SN     28     28    0.1  0.04    0.4
  117 12/22 09Z   29     24    0.00         29     28    0.0
  120 12/22 12Z   30     25    0.01         30     28    0.1  0.01    0.1
  123 12/22 15Z   33     28    0.01 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.02
  126 12/22 18Z   36     32    0.01 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.03
  129 12/22 21Z   38     35    0.01 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.04
  132 12/23 00Z   40     38    0.09 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.13
  135 12/23 03Z   40     35    0.02 -RA     40     40    0.0  0.15
  138 12/23 06Z   42     41    0.15 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.30
  141 12/23 09Z   47     45    0.23 RA      47     43    0.0  0.53
  144 12/23 12Z   47     41    0.04 -RA     50     43    0.0  0.57

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 17DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   99 12/21 15Z   23     19    0.01 -SN     23     22    0.1  0.01    0.1
  102 12/21 18Z   26     21    0.00 -SN     26     22    0.0
  105 12/21 21Z   27     22    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.0  0.01
  108 12/22 00Z   27     23    0.01 -SN     28     26    0.1  0.02    0.1
  111 12/22 03Z   28     25    0.03 -SN     28     27    0.5  0.05    0.6
  114 12/22 06Z   29     26    0.03 -SN     29     27    0.4  0.08    1.0
  117 12/22 09Z   30     27    0.02 -SN     30     29    0.1  0.10    1.1
  120 12/22 12Z   31     28    0.02 -SN     31     29    0.2  0.12    1.3
  123 12/22 15Z   32     29    0.02 -RA     32     31    0.0  0.14
  126 12/22 18Z   34     30    0.02 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.16
  129 12/22 21Z   36     33    0.01 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.17
  132 12/23 00Z   38     36    0.00 -RA     38     34    0.0
  135 12/23 03Z   39     37    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.02
  138 12/23 06Z   40     39    0.06 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.08
  141 12/23 09Z   45     43    0.18 RA      45     40    0.0  0.26
  144 12/23 12Z   47     43    0.05 -RA     48     41    0.0  0.31

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 17DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  126 12/22 18Z   13     11    0.04 -SN     13      9    0.7  0.04    0.7
  129 12/22 21Z   13     12    0.13 -SN     13     12    1.7  0.17    2.4
  132 12/23 00Z   15     14    0.07 -SN     15     12    0.7  0.24    3.1
  135 12/23 03Z   19     18    0.01 -PL     19     15    0.0  0.25
  138 12/23 06Z   27     26    0.04 -FZRN   27     15    0.0  0.29
  141 12/23 09Z   36     35    0.15 RA      36     27    0.0  0.44
  144 12/23 12Z   40     40    0.43 RA      40     27    0.0  0.87

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 17DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  126 12/22 18Z   11      8    0.01 -SN     11      7    0.2  0.01    0.2
  129 12/22 21Z   12     11    0.09 -SN     12     11    1.4  0.10    1.6
  132 12/23 00Z   15     14    0.13 -SN     15     11    1.5  0.23    3.1
  135 12/23 03Z   21     20    0.05 -SN     21     15    0.3  0.28    3.4
  138 12/23 06Z   31     31    0.12 -RA     31     15    0.0  0.40
  141 12/23 09Z   35     34    0.15 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.55
  144 12/23 12Z   39     39    0.40 RA      39     30    0.0  0.95

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 17DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  129 12/22 21Z   10      6    0.00         10      9    0.1          0.1
  132 12/23 00Z   13     12    0.06 -SN     13      9    1.2  0.06    1.3
  135 12/23 03Z   16     15    0.10 -SN     16     13    1.7  0.16    3.0
  138 12/23 06Z   19     17    0.08 -SN     19     13    1.1  0.24    4.1
  141 12/23 09Z   24     23    0.13 -SN     24     19    1.1  0.37    5.2
  144 12/23 12Z   31     31    0.17 FZRN    31     19    0.3  0.54    5.5
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+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Dec 18 2017, 08:15 AM
Post #42




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





The 00Z GFS run tones down the rainfall amounts a bit, ibut it still looks like a snow-eater. Everybody starts off with snow, turning to rain. Some areas may get freezing rain during the transition. Note that Quebec City might still get a bit more precip after 00Z of the 24th, but that's as far as the forecast goes.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z 18DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   96 12/22 00Z   23     19    0.02 -SN     25     23    0.3  0.02    0.3
   99 12/22 03Z   24     20    0.01 -SN     24     23    0.0  0.03
  102 12/22 06Z   25     21    0.00 -SN     25     23    0.0
  105 12/22 09Z   26     22    0.00 -PL     26     25    0.0
  108 12/22 12Z   27     24    0.01 -FZRN   27     25    0.0  0.01
  111 12/22 15Z   31     28    0.03 -FZRN   31     27    0.0  0.04
  114 12/22 18Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     27    0.0  0.05
  117 12/22 21Z   37     36    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.07
  120 12/23 00Z   40     39    0.05 -RA     40     36    0.0  0.12
  123 12/23 03Z   45     43    0.07 -TSRA   45     40    0.0  0.19
  126 12/23 06Z   44     43    0.25 -TSRA   46     40    0.0  0.44
  129 12/23 09Z   35     33    0.27 SN      44     35    1.0  0.71    1.0
  132 12/23 12Z   32     28    0.01 -SN     44     32    0.1  0.72    1.1
  135 12/23 15Z   30     23    0.01 -SN     32     30    0.0  0.73
  138 12/23 18Z   31     24    0.01 -SN     32     30    0.0  0.74
  141 12/23 21Z   28     19    0.01 -SN     31     28    0.0  0.75
  144 12/24 00Z   26     16    0.00 -SN     31     26    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z 18DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   96 12/22 00Z   25     21    0.01 -SN     28     25    0.0  0.01
   99 12/22 03Z   25     20    0.00         25     25    0.0
  102 12/22 06Z   26     20    0.00         26     25    0.0
  105 12/22 09Z   28     23    0.00 -FZRN   28     26    0.0
  108 12/22 12Z   31     27    0.01 -FZRN   31     26    0.0  0.01
  111 12/22 15Z   36     35    0.04 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.05
  114 12/22 18Z   39     38    0.01 -RA     39     31    0.0  0.06
  117 12/22 21Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.09
  120 12/23 00Z   42     41    0.08 -RA     42     38    0.0  0.17
  123 12/23 03Z   46     44    0.08 -TSRA   46     42    0.0  0.25
  126 12/23 06Z   40     39    0.24 -TSRA   46     40    0.0  0.49
  129 12/23 09Z   34     32    0.17 SN      40     34    0.8  0.66    0.8
  132 12/23 12Z   31     27    0.01 -SN     40     31    0.0  0.67
  135 12/23 15Z   31     26    0.01 -SN     31     31    0.0  0.68
  138 12/23 18Z   30     23    0.01 -SN     31     30    0.0  0.69
  141 12/23 21Z   28     18    0.01 -SN     30     28    0.0  0.70
  144 12/24 00Z   26     17    0.01 -SN     30     26    0.0  0.71

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z 18DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   96 12/22 00Z   26     18    0.01 -SN     27     26    0.1  0.01    0.1
   99 12/22 03Z   26     19    0.00         26     26    0.0
  102 12/22 06Z   27     20    0.00         27     26    0.0
  105 12/22 09Z   29     21    0.00         29     27    0.0
  108 12/22 12Z   31     25    0.01         31     27    0.0  0.01
  111 12/22 15Z   34     31    0.02 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.03
  114 12/22 18Z   38     34    0.01 -RA     38     31    0.0  0.04
  117 12/22 21Z   39     38    0.04 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.08
  120 12/23 00Z   42     39    0.07 -RA     42     38    0.0  0.15
  123 12/23 03Z   45     42    0.04 -RA     45     42    0.0  0.19
  126 12/23 06Z   48     46    0.20 -RA     48     42    0.0  0.39
  129 12/23 09Z   38     36    0.21 RA      48     38    0.0  0.60
  132 12/23 12Z   35     31    0.05 -SN     48     35    0.3  0.65    0.3
  135 12/23 15Z   33     25    0.01 -SN     35     33    0.0  0.66
  138 12/23 18Z   34     25    0.00 -SN     35     33    0.0
  141 12/23 21Z   31     20    0.00         34     31    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z 18DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   96 12/22 00Z   25     20    0.01         26     24    0.1  0.01    0.1
   99 12/22 03Z   27     23    0.01 -SN     27     25    0.1  0.02    0.2
  102 12/22 06Z   28     24    0.01         28     25    0.1  0.03    0.3
  105 12/22 09Z   29     25    0.00         29     28    0.0
  108 12/22 12Z   31     26    0.01 -RA     31     28    0.0  0.01
  111 12/22 15Z   34     29    0.02 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.03
  114 12/22 18Z   38     35    0.01 -RA     38     31    0.0  0.04
  117 12/22 21Z   38     36    0.02 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.06
  120 12/23 00Z   41     39    0.05 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.11
  123 12/23 03Z   44     41    0.06 -TSRA   44     41    0.0  0.17
  126 12/23 06Z   46     44    0.16 -TSRA   46     41    0.0  0.33
  129 12/23 09Z   39     36    0.23 RA      47     39    0.0  0.56
  132 12/23 12Z   37     32    0.06 -RA     47     37    0.1  0.62    0.1
  135 12/23 15Z   34     26    0.00 -SN     37     34    0.0
  138 12/23 18Z   35     25    0.00 -SN     37     34    0.0
  141 12/23 21Z   32     22    0.00 -SN     35     32    0.0
  144 12/24 00Z   30     18    0.00         35     29    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z 18DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  111 12/22 15Z   10      9    0.05 -SN     10      9    0.8  0.05    0.8
  114 12/22 18Z   12     10    0.05 -SN     12      9    0.5  0.10    1.3
  117 12/22 21Z   12     11    0.07 -SN     12     12    0.8  0.17    2.1
  120 12/23 00Z   16     15    0.04 -SN     16     12    0.2  0.21    2.3
  123 12/23 03Z   24     24    0.11 -FZRN   24     16    0.0  0.32
  126 12/23 06Z   35     35    0.05 -RA     35     16    0.0  0.37
  129 12/23 09Z   39     39    0.10 -RA     39     35    0.0  0.47
  132 12/23 12Z   41     41    0.27 RA      41     35    0.0  0.74
  135 12/23 15Z   38     36    0.13 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.87
  138 12/23 18Z   36     31    0.00 -SN     41     36    0.0
  141 12/23 21Z   34     26    0.00         36     34    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z 18DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  111 12/22 15Z    8      5    0.01          8      6    0.2  0.01    0.2
  114 12/22 18Z   10      9    0.06 -SN     10      6    0.9  0.07    1.1
  117 12/22 21Z   12     11    0.05 -SN     12     10    0.8  0.12    1.9
  120 12/23 00Z   18     17    0.06 -SN     18     10    0.6  0.18    2.5
  123 12/23 03Z   29     28    0.08 -FZRN   29     18    0.0  0.26
  126 12/23 06Z   35     34    0.04 -RA     35     18    0.0  0.30
  129 12/23 09Z   38     37    0.04 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.34
  132 12/23 12Z   41     41    0.15 -RA     41     35    0.0  0.49
  135 12/23 15Z   42     41    0.22 RA      42     41    0.0  0.71
  138 12/23 18Z   38     34    0.02 -RA     42     38    0.0  0.73
  141 12/23 21Z   36     28    0.00         38     36    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z 18DEC 2017
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  117 12/22 21Z   12     10    0.05 -SN     12     10    1.0  0.05    1.0
  120 12/23 00Z   14     13    0.11 -SN     14     10    1.9  0.16    2.9
  123 12/23 03Z   18     16    0.11 -SN     18     15    1.5  0.27    4.4
  126 12/23 06Z   22     21    0.19 -SN     22     15    2.4  0.46    6.8
  129 12/23 09Z   29     29    0.17 SN      30     23    0.9  0.63    7.7
  132 12/23 12Z   35     35    0.37 RA      35     23    0.0  1.00
  135 12/23 15Z   40     40    0.52 RA      40     35    0.0  1.52
  138 12/23 18Z   40     39    0.38 RA      41     35    0.0  1.90
  141 12/23 21Z   35     32    0.03 -SN     39     34    0.2  1.93    0.2
  144 12/24 00Z   32     27    0.02 -SN     39     32    0.1  1.95    0.3
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Lake effect
post Dec 18 2017, 08:18 AM
Post #43




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Bit of divergence with the tracks today. GFS comes in early on Friday, bit of ice, then rain, but not a huge amount. Both the Euro and CMC track further West, coming in later, with lots of rain. Either path looks like a considerable erosion of snow, even in the snowbelts, with little prospect of being replenished before Christmas.

This is looking like 2017's scrooge storm!

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 18 2017, 08:19 AM
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 18 2017, 08:18 AM) *
Bit of divergence with the tracks today. GFS comes in early on Friday, bit of ice, then rain, but not a huge amount. Both the Euro and CMC track further West, coming in later, with lots of rain. Either path looks like a considerable erosion of snow, even in the snowbelts, with little prospect of being replenished before Christmas.

This is looking like 2017's scrooge storm!


Hopefully things change this week. I'm not expecting to have a whole lot of snow leftnto erode by this timeframe. Next 3 days may eat most of it. This system would just ensure not a speck remains if it cuts so far west.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Dec 18 2017, 09:15 AM
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Lets just hope January and February deliver better here. I can live with a few cutters as their part of the package during La Nina years. What I don't want is this to become a trend into January like last year.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 09:52 AM
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It's only Monday, but at the moment all 3 main ensembles packages - GEFS, CMCE and EPS have the centre of low crossing Tobermory or southern Lake Superior. A very similar look and track in all 3 groups.

We need a big shift SE. Lol


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Dec 18 2017, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 18 2017, 09:06 AM) *
Hopefully things change this week. I'm not expecting to have a whole lot of snow leftnto erode by this timeframe. Next 3 days may eat most of it. This system would just ensure not a speck remains if it cuts so far west.


We have about 25-30cms, and it's snowing steady here today. May lose a bit tonight and tomorrow, but not much, then we should get an LES top up of 10-15cms, so we will be heading into this grinch storm looking good. A bit of ice, a bit of rain, followed by some LES would be OK, but a soaker would be very depressing. However, since I shouldn't be here, personally I am not so emotionally invested in the impact on base of this storm. I just want to get out of Pearson on Friday.
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snowbelt
post Dec 18 2017, 10:43 AM
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^ I am in the same boat here as well . We have a decent snow pack (20cm) and it is snowing at a good pace right now to add a couple cm to that total . Hoping this storm moves south 200km and we keep all this snow for Christmas instead of a washout.
As for Pearson (YYZ) Lake effect , I work down there for Air Canada and I can tell you that Friday is one if not the busiest (passenger loads) travel days of the year . Throw in this storm on that day and it will be an absolute gong show down there i'm sorry to say.
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Lake effect
post Dec 18 2017, 10:51 AM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Dec 18 2017, 10:43 AM) *
^ I am in the same boat here as well . We have a decent snow pack (20cm) and it is snowing at a good pace right now to add a couple cm to that total . Hoping this storm moves south 200km and we keep all this snow for Christmas instead of a washout.
As for Pearson (YYZ) Lake effect , I work down there for Air Canada and I can tell you that Friday is one if not the busiest (passenger loads) travel days of the year . Throw in this storm on that day and it will be an absolute gong show down there i'm sorry to say.


Yeah, I know...can't wait! The one thing going for me is that it is an Air Canada Heathrow flight, and they rarely get cancelled. I traveled into Pearson last Tuesday from Atlanta, mine was one of the few that arrived on time...hoping my luck lasts smile.gif

Must admit, if EC give a storm advisory, and AC allow ticket changes, I may move the flight. If things stay as they are, I will take my chances. YYZ doesn't look too badly placed, with maybe a bit of ice early in the day, and then mostly rain. Will know much better by Wednesday though.

In the past I've noticed the biggest issue is with staff taking snow days and the queues for the de-icing kit. The runways are normally fine unless it is absolutely blizzarding.
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Apocalypse
post Dec 18 2017, 11:08 AM
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12z run further south than previous runs.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_201.png ( 199.62K ) Number of downloads: 9
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 18 2017, 11:17 AM
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Yes, much further south this run on the GFS. I think this storm where it started out was always going to have a track either through or to the west of the lower lakes. Models are still having a difficult time figuring things out but I think the CMC being so far NW is going to end up being the outlier.
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Lake effect
post Dec 18 2017, 11:32 AM
Post #52




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The GFS shows a period of ZR much earlier, but it clears northward by Friday morning and it's mostly a rain event for the 401 southwards in Ontario on Friday, which may make things unpleasant, but shouldn't effect travel so much. The CMC has light snow entering the region later in the time frame, with much larger rain amounts on Saturday.

Ottawa and Montreal may be in for some problems though as the changeover is much later in the GFS run. Be good to see some Euro deterministic graphical output smile.gif

GFS on Friday morning:


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png ( 168.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


CMC at the same time:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png ( 173.13K ) Number of downloads: 1



GFS transition during the day:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png ( 167.88K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18.png ( 176.58K ) Number of downloads: 1


Then the cold air rushes in behind giving a brief changeover to ice and the snow on saturday.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 18 2017, 11:34 AM
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travis3000
post Dec 18 2017, 11:48 AM
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Lets hope the GFS is right. The 12z CMC had temps in the 10-13C range for all of Southern and Eastern Ontario with 24 hours of above 0c temps and heavy rain. That would eat all the snowpack it doesn't matter if you have 10cm or 40cm. It's gone. That's about the worst case scenario. For what it's worth last nights EURO agreed with the CMC. Let's see if the 12z Euro released in a couple hours sticks with that trend.

GFS has come much further south so that is promising for sure. Could it be catching a trend?


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 18 2017, 11:48 AM) *
Lets hope the GFS is right. The 12z CMC had temps in the 10-13C range for all of Southern and Eastern Ontario with 24 hours of above 0c temps and heavy rain. That would eat all the snowpack it doesn't matter if you have 10cm or 40cm. It's gone. That's about the worst case scenario. For what it's worth last nights EURO agreed with the CMC. Let's see if the 12z Euro released in a couple hours sticks with that trend.

GFS has come much further south so that is promising for sure. Could it be catching a trend?


Anyone have access to the ensembles from these runs? I find relying on the OP runs this far out leads to wild swings in track back and forth.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 02:59 PM
Post #55




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Sitting at 4 degrees here this afternoon.
I'm down to about 5cm of snowpack. I figured it would rapidly melt due to it being light and fluffy snow, and the fact that we hadn't yet had any thaw/freeze cycles hardening up the snowpack. It's melting away rapidly. Will be gone by end of tomorrow I would suspect. Certainly by end of Wednesday with sun in the forecast.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Dec 18 2017, 05:42 PM
Post #56




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Posts: 3,997
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





18z GFS
Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 191.01K ) Number of downloads: 7




--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 06:16 PM
Post #57




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This 18z GFS run is super wonky.

Check out the progression of the low.

Hour 90:


Hour 96:


102:


108:




--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 06:18 PM
Post #58




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,609
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





18z CMC Lol...geez





--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 06:18 PM
Post #59




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Group: Member
Posts: 4,609
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





12z Euro





--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Dec 18 2017, 06:21 PM
Post #60




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Member No.: 28,218





Ensembles


Euro


GFS


CMC



Absolute massive discrepancy between the CMC OP and CMC ensembles....hence the need to keep an eye on the ensembles through the week.

On the flip side, perfect alignment with the Euro and it's ensembles at the moment.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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