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> Dec 25th The Christmas Miracle Threat
markj138
post Dec 18 2017, 09:54 PM
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Ok lets start this off with the 12Z CMC & the 18Z GFS

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png ( 197.37K ) Number of downloads: 9


Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_28.png ( 137.17K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png ( 209.36K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_31.png ( 162.21K ) Number of downloads: 4



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markj138
post Dec 18 2017, 09:57 PM
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and the 12Z Euro

Attached File  ecmwf_ptype_conus_168.thumb.png.77e27f7a52c542a5e5e7cad0b4fc8103.png ( 479.26K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_180.thumb.png.e0e0c30343f71d078493001d605b744b.png ( 584.25K ) Number of downloads: 8
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markj138
post Dec 18 2017, 10:00 PM
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18Z GEFS

Attached File  imageproxy.php.gif ( 138.58K ) Number of downloads: 17

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markj138
post Dec 18 2017, 10:03 PM
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and the always trusty 12Z CFS!

Attached File  post_16_1513643408_thumb.png ( 475.77K ) Number of downloads: 5


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akula
post Dec 18 2017, 10:34 PM
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so this is the 2nd storm after the 23rd storm, correct?
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markj138
post Dec 18 2017, 11:10 PM
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QUOTE(akula @ Dec 18 2017, 10:34 PM) *
so this is the 2nd storm after the 23rd storm, correct?


yes this thread is for the storm on the 25th
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markj138
post Dec 18 2017, 11:15 PM
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the 0Z GFS is weak sauce

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png ( 202.92K ) Number of downloads: 2
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markj138
post Dec 18 2017, 11:21 PM
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0Z CMC looks good,this includes some snow from the 22nd

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png ( 196.45K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_30.png ( 141.09K ) Number of downloads: 8


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Lake effect
post Dec 19 2017, 06:07 AM
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Canadian Miracle Christmas model. GFS and Euro not sharring the CMCs optimism, both seem to be more coastal.
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snowgeek93
post Dec 19 2017, 07:29 AM
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CMC looking golden there. Hopefully models trend in that direction over the next week.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 19 2017, 09:48 AM
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GFS develops late and only grazes ON. ECM doesn’t look too bad with the track but also needs to strengthen a bit earlier.
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Ottawa blizzard
post Dec 19 2017, 07:37 PM
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The 18z Canadian shows a fair bit of snow falling on Christmas Eve.

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markj138
post Dec 19 2017, 07:40 PM
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As SNOWBOB mentioned in the other thread there is still a chance at some Christmas snow on the 18Z GFS from a clipper

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png ( 199.63K ) Number of downloads: 1
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markj138
post Dec 19 2017, 07:41 PM
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QUOTE(Ottawa blizzard @ Dec 19 2017, 07:37 PM) *
The 18z Canadian shows a fair bit of snow falling on Christmas Eve.


Can you post the 18Z Canadian here?
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Ottawa blizzard
post Dec 19 2017, 09:23 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Dec 19 2017, 07:41 PM) *
Can you post the 18Z Canadian here?


I can't for the life of me figure out how to post a screenshot here.

Go to this link, then hour 112.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html
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Ottawa blizzard
post Dec 19 2017, 09:29 PM
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Attached File  Capture.PNG ( 151.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


There. I think that's it.

This post has been edited by Ottawa blizzard: Dec 19 2017, 09:29 PM
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Attached File  Capture.PNG ( 151.28K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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markj138
post Dec 19 2017, 10:00 PM
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Thanks Ottawa that does look really good for S.ONT.
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Lake effect
post Dec 20 2017, 08:32 AM
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Great write up on Mike's blog about Christmas day. With all the models showing the chance of some snow on the day, and snow on the ground for most in Ontario, looks like a perfect white Christmas is becoming increasingly likely. I could have predicted that the day I booked my flight to leave before Christmas! However, given the choice of sitting in our living room watching snow falling on our own, or having lunch in a beautiful English country pub with family, and meeting friends in the evening, I won't be crying about it. Be nice for all the families here though...just wish the UK was going to be snowy, but going to be wet windy and mild!
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snowgeek93
post Dec 20 2017, 09:48 AM
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Saw the Christmas snow potential on Mike's blog as well and it would be ideal for laying down some snow for this upcoming cold snap, IF it happens.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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NortheastWind
post Dec 20 2017, 10:01 AM
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The Canadian model shows no rain between now and Christmas morning
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