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> Dec 25th The Christmas Miracle Threat
plowguy
post Dec 20 2017, 07:00 PM
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TWN has upped the snow for the 24th 5-10 for my area with another 1-3 on Christmas day. Has something changed? I thought this was the lower amount LP.
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 20 2017, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Dec 20 2017, 07:00 PM) *
TWN has upped the snow for the 24th 5-10 for my area with another 1-3 on Christmas day. Has something changed? I thought this was the lower amount LP.

Canít really say what TWN is thinking with there forecasts as I donít look at them. The first wave looks to drop 5-8cm on your area. This is for Thursday evening into Friday morning. If you can get some lake enhancement you might get a bit more but I think you might be just out of range for enhancement. After this there still remains some uncertainty with the next waves of precip. Some models want to bring in another system right after the first wave (although that solution seems to be fading) and other models want to bring in another system around the 24th. Still very little certainty with these solutions.
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plowguy
post Dec 20 2017, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 20 2017, 07:15 PM) *
Canít really say what TWN is thinking with there forecasts as I donít look at them. The first wave looks to drop 5-8cm on your area. This is for Thursday evening into Friday morning. If you can get some lake enhancement you might get a bit more but I think you might be just out of range for enhancement. After this there still remains some uncertainty with the next waves of precip. Some models want to bring in another system right after the first wave (although that solution seems to be fading) and other models want to bring in another system around the 24th. Still very little certainty with these solutions.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR THOUGHTS! 26 families hoping TWN is wrong on Cristmas Eve.
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Lake effect
post Dec 20 2017, 07:22 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Dec 20 2017, 07:20 PM) *
THANK YOU FOR YOUR THOUGHTS! 26 families hoping TWN is wrong on Cristmas Eve.


Several million hoping TWN is right.
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plowguy
post Dec 20 2017, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 20 2017, 07:22 PM) *
Several million hoping TWN is right.

Yea I know. Like yourself I have a vested interest in being home this Christmas. The folks that work for me have young families, but its the nature of or business. Nursing homes and womens shelters must be open 24/7
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plowguy
post Dec 20 2017, 07:28 PM
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Christmas day it can snow till the cows come home. Christmas eve into early morning, quiet is best for us.
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Lake effect
post Dec 20 2017, 08:31 PM
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Someone will be unhappy whatever the outcome. To be honest, I will be unhappy on missing out on a perfect white Christmas, so secretly, or not, I hope it doesn't snow.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 20 2017, 08:33 PM
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MrMusic
post Dec 20 2017, 08:54 PM
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Bury me. I'm all in!


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Dec 20 2017, 08:55 PM
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12z Euro for Christmas Day





--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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plowguy
post Dec 20 2017, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 20 2017, 08:55 PM) *
12z Euro for Christmas Day


Yikes! That sucks.
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 21 2017, 03:35 AM
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00Z GFS predicting almost a nothingburger for the 24th/25th. Mind you, the Christmas Miracle appears to have been moved to the 21st-to-23rd thread.
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plowguy
post Dec 21 2017, 06:39 AM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Dec 21 2017, 03:35 AM) *
00Z GFS predicting almost a nothingburger for the 24th/25th. Mind you, the Christmas Miracle appears to have been moved to the 21st-to-23rd thread.

I will take that! Can you please put a hold on that for me rolleyes.gif
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plowguy
post Dec 21 2017, 10:42 AM
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Anyone have any new thoughts on "The Christmas Miracle" I am starting to look at work shifts and any thoughts would be extremely helpful as always.
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MrMusic
post Dec 21 2017, 10:43 AM
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A Tweet here from a met at TWN talking about 5-10cm in the general area Christmas Eve, but he's watching potential for 20+ cm in the Hamilton area due to lake effect. a LONG way to go before being able to bank on anything happening Christmas Eve, let alone amounts this high...but it's possible.

https://twitter.com/gtaweather1/status/943838439836999680


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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plowguy
post Dec 21 2017, 10:45 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 21 2017, 10:43 AM) *
A Tweet here from a met at TWN talking about 5-10cm in the general area Christmas Eve, but he's watching potential for 20+ cm in the Hamilton area due to lake effect. a LONG way to go before being able to bank on anything happening Christmas Eve, let alone amounts this high...but it's possible.

https://twitter.com/gtaweather1/status/943838439836999680

Thank you.
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puttin
post Dec 21 2017, 11:37 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Dec 21 2017, 10:45 AM) *
Thank you.

So the 6 in purple under Lake Simcoe which is kinda where I am, means 6 inches? ..I can never read those maps....thanks.

This post has been edited by puttin: Dec 21 2017, 03:25 PM
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plowguy
post Dec 21 2017, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Dec 21 2017, 11:37 AM) *
So the 9 in purple under Lake Simcoe which is kinda where I am, means 9 inches? I can never read those maps....thanks.

I think so. I ask the questions on this forum...I don't know much blink.gif
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Lake effect
post Dec 21 2017, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Dec 21 2017, 11:37 AM) *
So the 6 in purple under Lake Simcoe which is kinda where I am, means 6 inches? I've never had.... (I'll be quiet now)....I can never read those maps....thanks.


Yes, but you need to look closely, that is total snowfall from yesterday through Sunday, and includes tonights snow. Looking at the models, more than an inch of snow north of the 401 on Saturday is unlikely. There may however be some ZR early on. If there is you may want to delay heading out till it clears off.

All subject to change of course.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 21 2017, 11:57 AM
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markj138
post Dec 21 2017, 06:43 PM
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All the GFS runs today have been a miss for Christmas day but the 12Z CMC does have a weak low in the area

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png ( 179.6K ) Number of downloads: 0
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akula
post Dec 21 2017, 06:45 PM
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even 2" on Xmas day would be satisfactory!
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