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> Dec 24 - ? cold snap; Possible LES
knorthern_knight
post Dec 22 2017, 05:59 PM
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After the Christmas Day system, comes some cold air. Suitable for staying inside and watching the lake effect snow pile up. EC's forecasts for Ottawa on the 27th and 28th are calling for DAYTIME HIGHS of -16 C with overnight lows around -25 C. Here are a few days of FIM 12Z (7:00 AM EST) temperature maps.

Attached File  temp_2m_f144.png ( 67.33K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  temp_2m_f168.png ( 68.42K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  temp_2m_f192.png ( 66.78K ) Number of downloads: 0
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snowgeek93
post Dec 22 2017, 06:04 PM
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It's looking frigid here later next week. Bring it on as far as I'm concerned, keep our snowpack alive as long as possible.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 71.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 42
Days with Snow Cover: 32

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 23.4cm (38.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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markj138
post Dec 22 2017, 06:24 PM
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I would rather loose the high pressure up in Quebec & let that Dec 28th storm track North East,the 18Z GFS brought the storm back & it does look a little miller b ish.
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 26 2017, 10:19 PM
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Daytime hight for Toronto Pearson Airport was -2.0 on the 24th, and hasn't improved since. The FIM temp progs indicate Toronto might get above freezing on Jan the 8th or 9th. That would be approximately 2 weeks below freezing.
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 28 2017, 09:30 PM
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The NAEFS and FIM indicate that Toronto might scrape through Jan 8th/9th/10th below freezing, and the cold returns in earnest on the 11th. The FIM maps for 12Z (7:00AM EST) show things particularly bad for Toronto on the morning of Dec 31, Jan 1, Jan 4, and Jan 5. Here are the NAEFS chart and the FIM maps.

Attached File  naefs.png ( 189.37K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  temp_2m_f072.png ( 67.75K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f096.png ( 68.03K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f168.png ( 68.06K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f192.png ( 67.77K ) Number of downloads: 1
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rjb
post Dec 28 2017, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Dec 28 2017, 09:30 PM) *
The NAEFS and FIM indicate that Toronto might scrape through Jan 8th/9th/10th below freezing, and the cold returns in earnest on the 11th. The FIM maps for 12Z (7:00AM EST) show things particularly bad for Toronto on the morning of Dec 31, Jan 1, Jan 4, and Jan 5. Here are the NAEFS chart and the FIM maps.

Attached File  naefs.png ( 189.37K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  temp_2m_f072.png ( 67.75K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f096.png ( 68.03K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f168.png ( 68.06K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f192.png ( 67.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


do you mean particularly bad in terms of temperature?
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 28 2017, 10:01 PM
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QUOTE(rjb @ Dec 28 2017, 09:36 PM) *
do you mean particularly bad in terms of temperature?

Yes; probably "Extreme Cold Alert" time again. I grew up in Winnipeg, but I'm getting soft as I age.
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rjb
post Dec 28 2017, 11:02 PM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Dec 28 2017, 10:01 PM) *
Yes; probably "Extreme Cold Alert" time again. I grew up in Winnipeg, but I'm getting soft as I age.



I think when you go below -15 it's going to be bad, it's not the age but probably not being used to it.

I noticed that I felt very cold Monday and Tuesday, better on Wednesday and today I didn't even feel cold, despite the temperature being about the same. The same happened in 2014 when we went the whole January below freezing with many days in the -20 area, at the end I wasn't really feeling it that much, but after the mild winters after that this one feels particularly cold.
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snowball
post Dec 28 2017, 11:18 PM
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QUOTE(rjb @ Dec 28 2017, 11:02 PM) *
I think when you go below -15 it's going to be bad, it's not the age but probably not being used to it.

I noticed that I felt very cold Monday and Tuesday, better on Wednesday and today I didn't even feel cold, despite the temperature being about the same. The same happened in 2014 when we went the whole January below freezing with many days in the -20 area, at the end I wasn't really feeling it that much, but after the mild winters after that this one feels particularly cold.


It's early in the season to feel this type of cold. The trough is very deep too, dipping down to New Orleans almost. Very odd to say the least hard to predict a winter when...

This post has been edited by snowball: Dec 28 2017, 11:18 PM
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 29 2017, 12:07 AM
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Thanks to the cold snap, a few patches of ice are finally showing up in the Great Lakes, but it'll take a lot to freeze over any of the lakes. Georgian Bay will probably be the first area to go solid, killing some snowbelt activity. See maps at...
The URLs are very similar except that the letter just before "icecon" is the first letter of the lake's name
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Stl
post Dec 29 2017, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Dec 28 2017, 09:30 PM) *
The NAEFS and FIM indicate that Toronto might scrape through Jan 8th/9th/10th below freezing, and the cold returns in earnest on the 11th. The FIM maps for 12Z (7:00AM EST) show things particularly bad for Toronto on the morning of Dec 31, Jan 1, Jan 4, and Jan 5. Here are the NAEFS chart and the FIM maps.

Attached File  naefs.png ( 189.37K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  temp_2m_f072.png ( 67.75K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f096.png ( 68.03K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f168.png ( 68.06K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f192.png ( 67.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


That time frame is very cold indeed some days would not go beyond -25c and nights below -30c in the January 6 to 12 timeframe , the January 4th warm up show clearly a coastal storm for and the ratio should be great for who ever get this storm.

GFS had the 480 line covering Southern Quebec which is something i never seen.
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Stl
post Dec 29 2017, 12:15 AM
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QUOTE(rjb @ Dec 28 2017, 11:02 PM) *
I think when you go below -15 it's going to be bad, it's not the age but probably not being used to it.

I noticed that I felt very cold Monday and Tuesday, better on Wednesday and today I didn't even feel cold, despite the temperature being about the same. The same happened in 2014 when we went the whole January below freezing with many days in the -20 area, at the end I wasn't really feeling it that much, but after the mild winters after that this one feels particularly cold.


IYa , it's easier to get used to this cold as it's gradual and constant , last year it was up and down so any cold would be felt more.

This post has been edited by Stl: Dec 29 2017, 12:20 AM
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 29 2017, 08:41 PM
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The best chance for Toronto Pearson to get above freezing in the next few days appears to be the afternoon/evening of Jan 7th, as shown in the temperature forecast map below. An important factor is the amount of ice that accumulates on Lake Ontario in the next week. I don't know if the FIM forecasts allow for an increase of ice cover in the next week. That will affect how much localized warming the airport gets. I'm also including the latest Lake Ontario ice cover map.

Attached File  temp_2m_f228.png ( 63.95K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  oicecon_00.gif ( 16.18K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Apocalypse
post Dec 30 2017, 11:44 AM
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That is a lot of extreme cold warnings.

Attached File  extremecold.png ( 103.58K ) Number of downloads: 0
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 30 2017, 11:48 PM
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Latest FIM run shows southern in a warm sector January 9th...
Edit: That should read "southern Ontario"

Attached File  temp_2m_f240.png ( 66.46K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by knorthern_knight: Dec 31 2017, 08:20 AM
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Lake effect
post Dec 31 2017, 09:27 AM
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Holy Cow, I'm almost missing 10C and drizzle...back in Barrie and it is brass monkies! Very beautiful though, must be a good 30+cms on the ground.

Looking like a bit of LES activity tomorrow...quick 5-10cms for some in the usual areas:

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_33.png ( 194.43K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 31 2017, 09:27 AM
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sledder
post Dec 31 2017, 10:45 AM
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Happy New Years Eve everyone. Can anyone see a change for snow squalls or a system sow storm for the south Muskoka region any time soon?

We have have about a foot on the ground but we need more for our snowmobile trails. Any predictions would be appreciated.

Cheers

Ron
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Lake effect
post Dec 31 2017, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(sledder @ Dec 31 2017, 10:45 AM) *
Happy New Years Eve everyone. Can anyone see a change for snow squalls or a system sow storm for the south Muskoka region any time soon?

We have have about a foot on the ground but we need more for our snowmobile trails. Any predictions would be appreciated.

Cheers

Ron


There may be some LES off a westerly wind Tuesday afternoon, but nothing huge, maybe 5-10cms, even 15cm locally, then a clipper with a cm or so, but nothing big on the horizon...sorry.
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travis3000
post Dec 31 2017, 07:24 PM
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Its freezing out there! Minus 25 actually up here, will probably even get colder overnight. Wouldn't be surprised to see -30C. Coldest New Years ever!


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 31 2017, 07:24 PM
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Frigid night out there, but the calm winds do make it more tolerable. Worth it for the solid snow cover built up around here though.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 71.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 42
Days with Snow Cover: 32

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 23.4cm (38.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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