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> Dec 24 - ? cold snap; Possible LES
Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 02:32 PM
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Getting hammered now, and looks like another couple of hours of it. 3k NAM is very impressive from about 24hrs out. Very nice correlation here:

12z wind prediction for now:

Attached File  hwn_07__1_.gif ( 33.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


12z 3k NAM for now:

Attached File  Screenshot_20180101_142726.jpg ( 80.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Current radar:

Attached File  Screenshot_20180101_142443.jpg ( 231.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 1 2018, 02:12 PM) *
What a great way to enjoy the first day of 2018.


Couldn't be better really!
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Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 02:42 PM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Jan 1 2018, 02:15 PM) *
The GFS Jan 1st 12Z text forecast has London getting hit with close to a foot of snow during the period of the 3rd to the 6th. Crazy snow ratio of 25:1. I assume this is lake effect, because neither Waterloo nor Hamilton get remotely that much. Anyone want to start a thread? I'm not familiar with lake effect events.


Looks like a squall is going to set up over that area for quite some time, I expect it will wiggle about but could be more than a foot, will have a better idea when the hi res models come into range. I'm back at work tomorrow so not going to have time to input really.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 1 2018, 02:50 PM
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Think Barrie gets 15 to 20 out of the current squall..
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plowguy
post Jan 1 2018, 03:35 PM
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Anyone have any thoughts on the Huron squall stalling out over my area? EC still holds at 2-4 for Brantford tonight
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Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 1 2018, 03:35 PM) *
Anyone have any thoughts on the Huron squall stalling out over my area? EC still holds at 2-4 for Brantford tonight


While the GB squall has stalled for a while, the Huron one has been meandering south. The NAM 3k predicts it will continue down to the Brantford area, or just to the west and stall for a while, but it will be weaker by the time it gets there, and still moving about like the end of a tail. I wouldn't like to predict amounts, as could be anything from a trace to 7cms locally. 😊

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png ( 195.64K ) Number of downloads: 3
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plowguy
post Jan 1 2018, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 1 2018, 03:51 PM) *
While the GB squall has stalled for a while, the Huron one has been meandering south. The NAM 3k predicts it will continue down to the Brantford area, or just to the west and stall for a while, but it will be weaker by the time it gets there, and still moving about like the end of a tail. I wouldn't like to predict amounts, as could be anything from a trace to 7cms locally. 😊

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png ( 195.64K ) Number of downloads: 3

Ok Thank you.
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travis3000
post Jan 1 2018, 08:23 PM
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15cm in SW Barrie so far from this squall. Still snowing out now, and has been coming down all day! A fantastic start to 2018.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 1 2018, 08:33 PM
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Really liked the way this looked firing up
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MrMusic
post Jan 1 2018, 10:33 PM
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what a beautiful surprise this evening. Crazy heavy snow earlier and now steady light snow. Close to 5cm down. Was no mention of snow in the forecast.
Looks like Huron squalls extended well inland this eve. Just gorgeous out there to freshen up the snowpack.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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