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> Jan 13-14th Eastern Canada winter storm, Medium range significant snow potential
markj138
post Jan 7 2018, 11:53 PM
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QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:47 PM) *
The new euro should come in more east then 12z run...all of the 12z ensembles where east of the euro



I didnt even see the 12z euro,was the op west?
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cards101
post Jan 8 2018, 12:19 AM
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Op went into NW Ohio
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markj138
post Jan 8 2018, 12:24 AM
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QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 8 2018, 12:19 AM) *
Op went into NW Ohio


Thanks cards,i will catch the 0z tomorrow!
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 8 2018, 01:20 AM
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When the GFS snow amounts exceed myforecast.com, one tends to get somewhat skeptical. laugh.gif Even if the forecast does pan out, a lot of the snow will fall into salty puddles. It'll be one sloppy mess on the weekend. Here's Ontario...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   33     33    0.11 -RA     33     26    0.0  0.11
   69 01/10 21Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.14
   72 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.15
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.17
   78 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.20
   81 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.03 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.23
   84 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.06 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.29
   87 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.07 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.36
   90 01/11 18Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.37
   93 01/11 21Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.38
   96 01/12 00Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.39
   99 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.06 -TSRA   41     39    0.0  0.45
  102 01/12 06Z   35     35    0.15 -RA     41     35    0.0  0.60
  105 01/12 09Z   26     25    0.04 -FZRN   35     26    0.0  0.64
  108 01/12 12Z   22     20    0.07 -PL     35     22    0.2  0.71    0.2
  111 01/12 15Z   21     18    0.06 -SN     22     21    0.9  0.77    1.1
  114 01/12 18Z   22     17    0.01 -SN     22     21    0.2  0.78    1.3
  117 01/12 21Z   20     16    0.04 -SN     22     20    0.4  0.82    1.7
  120 01/13 00Z   18     16    0.10 -SN     22     18    1.3  0.92    3.0
  123 01/13 03Z   15     14    0.24 SN      18     15    3.1  1.16    6.1
  126 01/13 06Z   13     12    0.41 SN      18     13    6.1  1.57   12.2
  129 01/13 09Z   12     10    0.29 SN      13     12    5.8  1.86   18.0
  132 01/13 12Z   10      7    0.05 SN      13     10    0.8  1.91   18.8
  135 01/13 15Z    8      6    0.08 -SN     11      8    1.9  1.99   20.7
  138 01/13 18Z    9      6    0.01 -SN     11      7    0.3  2.00   21.0
  141 01/13 21Z    8      4    0.01 -SN      9      8    0.3  2.01   21.3
  144 01/14 00Z    2      0    0.00 -SN      9      2    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   31     30    0.06 -FZRN   31     21    0.0  0.06
   69 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.06 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.12
   72 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.13
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.14
   78 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.16
   81 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.19
   84 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.22
   87 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.05 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.27
   90 01/11 18Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     41     37    0.0  0.28
   93 01/11 21Z   42     42    0.01 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.29
   96 01/12 00Z   45     44    0.01 -RA     45     41    0.0  0.30
   99 01/12 03Z   44     43    0.04 -TSRA   46     44    0.0  0.34
  102 01/12 06Z   40     39    0.14 -RA     46     40    0.0  0.48
  105 01/12 09Z   30     26    0.07 -FZRN   39     30    0.0  0.55
  108 01/12 12Z   23     20    0.08 -PL     39     23    0.0  0.63
  111 01/12 15Z   22     17    0.04 -SN     23     22    0.4  0.67    0.4
  114 01/12 18Z   21     13    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.1  0.68    0.5
  117 01/12 21Z   18     11    0.01 -SN     21     18    0.1  0.69    0.6
  120 01/13 00Z   16     13    0.06 -SN     21     16    0.7  0.75    1.3
  123 01/13 03Z   12     11    0.16 SN      16     12    1.9  0.91    3.2
  126 01/13 06Z   10      9    0.42 SN      16     10    5.2  1.33    8.4
  129 01/13 09Z   11      8    0.34 SN      11      9    5.0  1.67   13.4
  132 01/13 12Z   10      7    0.11 SN      11      9    2.2  1.78   15.6
  135 01/13 15Z    7      5    0.07 -SN     10      7    1.8  1.85   17.4
  138 01/13 18Z    8      5    0.03 -SN     10      7    0.6  1.88   18.0
  141 01/13 21Z    7      3    0.00 -SN      8      7    0.1         18.1
  144 01/14 00Z    2      0    0.00          8      2    0.1         18.2

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   32     30    0.05 -RA     32     24    0.0  0.05
   69 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.13 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.18
   72 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.20
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.21
   78 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.23
   81 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.03 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.26
   84 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.27
   87 01/11 15Z   41     40    0.07 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.34
   90 01/11 18Z   43     42    0.01 -RA     43     39    0.0  0.35
   93 01/11 21Z   45     43    0.00         45     43    0.0
   96 01/12 00Z   47     45    0.01 -RA     47     43    0.0  0.01
   99 01/12 03Z   46     45    0.01 -RA     47     46    0.0  0.02
  102 01/12 06Z   43     42    0.05 -RA     47     43    0.0  0.07
  105 01/12 09Z   36     33    0.08 -RA     43     36    0.0  0.15
  108 01/12 12Z   28     26    0.27 FZRN    43     28    0.0  0.42
  111 01/12 15Z   23     21    0.11 -SN     28     23    1.1  0.53    1.1
  114 01/12 18Z   20     16    0.08 -SN     28     20    1.1  0.61    2.2
  117 01/12 21Z   18     14    0.04 -SN     20     18    0.6  0.65    2.8
  120 01/13 00Z   19     16    0.05 -PL     20     18    0.3  0.70    3.1
  123 01/13 03Z   16     14    0.10 -PL     19     16    0.1  0.80    3.2
  126 01/13 06Z   13     12    0.38 SN      19     13    3.4  1.18    6.6
  129 01/13 09Z   13     11    0.30 SN      13     12    3.7  1.48   10.3
  132 01/13 12Z   12      9    0.09 SN      13     12    1.5  1.57   11.8
  135 01/13 15Z    8      6    0.04 -SN     12      8    0.9  1.61   12.7
  138 01/13 18Z   10      7    0.02 -SN     12      7    0.6  1.63   13.3
  141 01/13 21Z    9      6    0.02 -SN     10      9    0.3  1.65   13.6
  144 01/14 00Z    3      0    0.01 -SN     10      3    0.1  1.66   13.7

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   30     27    0.02 -FZRN   30     24    0.0  0.02
   69 01/10 21Z   33     32    0.09 -RA     34     30    0.0  0.11
   72 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.12
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.00         36     36    0.0
   78 01/11 06Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.01
   81 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.02
   84 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.02 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.04
   87 01/11 15Z   39     39    0.06 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.10
   90 01/11 18Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.11
   93 01/11 21Z   43     41    0.01         43     41    0.0  0.12
   96 01/12 00Z   45     43    0.01 -RA     45     41    0.0  0.13
   99 01/12 03Z   45     43    0.01         45     45    0.0  0.14
  102 01/12 06Z   42     41    0.03 -RA     45     42    0.0  0.17
  105 01/12 09Z   34     30    0.10 -RA     42     34    0.0  0.27
  108 01/12 12Z   23     19    0.13 -PL     42     23    0.0  0.40
  111 01/12 15Z   19     15    0.04 -SN     23     19    0.5  0.44    0.5
  114 01/12 18Z   18     12    0.02 -SN     23     18    0.3  0.46    0.8
  117 01/12 21Z   19     13    0.01 -SN     19     18    0.2  0.47    1.0
  120 01/13 00Z   19     15    0.05 -SN     20     18    0.7  0.52    1.7
  123 01/13 03Z   17     12    0.04 -PL     19     17    0.3  0.56    2.0
  126 01/13 06Z   13     13    0.35 SN      19     13    5.3  0.91    7.3
  129 01/13 09Z   13     12    0.42 SN      13     12    5.2  1.33   12.5
  132 01/13 12Z   13     10    0.12 SN      14     12    2.2  1.45   14.7
  135 01/13 15Z   10      8    0.04 -SN     13      9    0.8  1.49   15.5
  138 01/13 18Z    9      6    0.03 -SN     13      8    0.7  1.52   16.2
  141 01/13 21Z    6      4    0.01 -SN      9      6    0.3  1.53   16.5
  144 01/14 00Z    5      1    0.01 -SN      9      4    0.3  1.54   16.8

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   72 01/11 00Z   27     27    0.06 -SN     27     23    0.2  0.06    0.2
   75 01/11 03Z   34     34    0.05 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.11
   78 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     28    0.0  0.12
   81 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.13
   84 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.14
   87 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.16
   90 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.13 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.29
   93 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.31
   96 01/12 00Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.32
   99 01/12 03Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.33
  102 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.04 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.37
  105 01/12 09Z   39     39    0.06 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.43
  108 01/12 12Z   25     23    0.23 -FZRN   40     25    0.0  0.66
  111 01/12 15Z   15     12    0.13 -SN     24     15    1.2  0.79    1.2
  114 01/12 18Z   13      9    0.03 -SN     24     13    0.4  0.82    1.6
  117 01/12 21Z   12      7    0.01         13     12    0.2  0.83    1.8
  120 01/13 00Z   12      7    0.00         13     12    0.0
  123 01/13 03Z   12      6    0.00         12     11    0.0
  126 01/13 06Z   11      7    0.03 -SN     12     11    0.4  0.03    0.4
  129 01/13 09Z   10      7    0.08 -SN     11     10    1.0  0.11    1.4
  132 01/13 12Z   11     10    0.28 SN      12     10    3.4  0.39    4.8
  135 01/13 15Z   11      9    0.20 SN      11     10    3.0  0.59    7.8
  138 01/13 18Z   12     10    0.11 SN      12     10    1.6  0.70    9.4
  141 01/13 21Z    9      7    0.09 -SN     12     10    1.8  0.79   11.2
  144 01/14 00Z    7      4    0.04 -SN     12      7    0.9  0.83   12.1
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cards101
post Jan 8 2018, 01:55 AM
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Latest euro did track further east
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robv1989
post Jan 8 2018, 02:25 AM
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This seems like a potentially epic snow storm...could anyone say (roughly) when this storm would be starting and when it would be finishing (especially starting.) My weekend for the work week would begin 7 am on Friday, would I be spared from a bad drive home? Big storms are the best when you can enjoy them at home with out driving smile.gif

Thank you in advance as I appreciate everyone on this forum for keeping us posted.

Edit:

I noticed on the American forum today's 06 Z GEFS run has 30-33 inches of snow for parts of the golden horse shoe O_O I realize we are far out still but that is 76-84 cm...the most snow I've ever personally seen is 73 cm when stoney creek had that valentines storm combined with lake effect many years ago.

This post has been edited by robv1989: Jan 8 2018, 06:09 AM
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snowball
post Jan 8 2018, 07:18 AM
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NAM is way off into oblivion

GFS holds

Will be fun to watch at least smile.gif
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players1
post Jan 8 2018, 07:23 AM
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6z gfs.

6z GFS.....

off of the american forum. id like that down this way...
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 8 2018, 07:59 AM
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Attached File  gfs.png ( 395.41K ) Number of downloads: 14


GFS Whoa, LOL ok
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snowgeek93
post Jan 8 2018, 08:21 AM
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Ugh, I'd just ignore these models until Friday at least because their pumping out some ridiculous solutions.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 8 2018, 08:30 AM
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These totals are just insane and theyíve been shown for several runs in a row now so itís not fantasy that someone could well be getting amounts like what the GFS shows. Itís just the track is still to be determined for exactly who that is. Itís not often you see such high snow totals on the GFS, CMC and euro for a storm several days out. It just illustrates the potential for this storm.

The sharp cold front that moves in after the initial wave of moisture from the system bringing in warmer temps moves in fast enough to let the system track along the baroclinic zone and keep us in the cold sector. Looks like models are picking up on some defo bands in the main batch of precip as well. Very interesting storm to track if it actually materializes.
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Lake effect
post Jan 8 2018, 08:34 AM
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Slipped a bit further East this morning. I suspect this may end up dumping on upstate NY throigh vermont. Atlantic Canada may well be the beneficiaries if that's the case.
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PGM
post Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 8 2018, 08:34 AM) *
Slipped a bit further East this morning. I suspect this may end up dumping on upstate NY throigh vermont. Atlantic Canada may well be the beneficiaries if that's the case.


Probably a good thing. A snow fall of this caliber would cause a lot of issues, and some parts of Ontario don't need any more!
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trancen
post Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM
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A once in 20 yr storm wouldn't be a bad thing smile.gif

QUOTE(PGM @ Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM) *
Probably a good thing. A snow fall of this caliber would cause a lot of issues, and some parts of Ontario don't need any more!

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PGM
post Jan 8 2018, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(trancen @ Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM) *
A once in 20 yr storm wouldn't be a bad thing smile.gif


I've already enjoyed a crazy lake effect season lol. You guys can have it
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 8 2018, 11:23 AM
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Attached File  gfs_west.png ( 385K ) Number of downloads: 11
''

Appears a little west.

Lets see this maintain.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 8 2018, 11:29 AM
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Models not backing down.
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MrMusic
post Jan 8 2018, 12:48 PM
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Posting this just for eye-candy. Lol

Hamilton-Niagara in the 24+ inch zone.... we get this kind of eye candy on models every once in a while. Never materializes of course, but it's still fun to look at and dream a little!





--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Jan 8 2018, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 8 2018, 12:48 PM) *
Posting this just for eye-candy. Lol

Hamilton-Niagara in the 24+ inch zone.... we get this kind of eye candy on models every once in a while. Never materializes of course, but it's still fun to look at and dream a little!



Mega lake enhancement. It's like getting storm snow and squalls at the same time. Hamilton gets six inches more than what Toronto gets. Still early days, but the CMC is on board. However, the ensembles have the low slightly further East.
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JFK
post Jan 8 2018, 01:40 PM
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American:


Canadian:



Euro:


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