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Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 02:09 PM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249923 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 01:44 PM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249922 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 06:30 AM


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Actually, the GFS timing has also slowed - moving the system across more towards the 29th. I might tweak start date.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249898 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 06:27 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 22 2017, 07:23 AM) *
ECMWF looks like it's a day or two slower than the GFS. Also draws some moisture from "Philippe". ph34r.gif

PWATs

[attachment=331940:ecmwf_pw...onus_204.png]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

That's what I was thinking too, MJ - the Euro is not so much different as it is slower with the progression.

Contrasting to its run 3 cycles ago, the Euro is handling the recurvature of Lan much better (read as: showing a track and evolution as one might typically expect - as opposed to the squashed version it had previously)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249897 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:59 AM


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QUOTE
SPC AC 220710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Northeast on Tuesday,
accompanied by at least some risk for potentially damaging wind
gusts.

...Synopsis...
While another short wave trough progresses inland across the
Canadian Rockies, around the crest of broad upper ridging extending
across the eastern Pacific through much of western North America,
models indicate that large-scale troughing east of Mississippi
Valley may amplify further through this period. Encompassing much
of the eastern U.S., this troughing may take on more of a negative
tilt as it approaches the Atlantic Seaboard Tuesday through Tuesday
night.
An associated surface cold front is still expected to
precede the upper trough, with one shallower portion surging across
much of the remainder of the Southeast, into the Florida Peninsula,
by early Tuesday afternoon. Farther north, the front may not
advance into the northern Mid Atlantic coast and Hudson/Champlain
Valleys until late Tuesday afternoon or evening. Of particular
concern to severe weather potential, is the possibility of rather
strong lower/mid tropospheric wind fields (up to 50-70+ kt in the
850-500 mb layer) within a corridor ahead of the northern portion of
the front.

...Northeast...
Prospects for more than very weak boundary layer destabilization
appear rather slim within the pre-frontal corridor with strongest
mean lower/mid tropospheric winds, from portions of the northern Mid
Atlantic Coast region into western New England, during the day
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. And relatively warm mid/upper levels
may preclude, or at least limit, the potential for thermodynamic
profiles to support lightning. However, given the potential
strength of the wind fields off the surface, the development of even
relatively weak/low-topped convection may aid the downward transfer
of higher momentum, contributing to the potential for at least
localized wind damage.

..Kerr.. 10/22/2017

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249894 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:33 AM


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Also looking like there will be a distinct and sharp temperature contrast with the front. Would not be shocked to see SPC issue a SR.

It's these situations that produce incredible dynamically driven, winds/rain (snow) as convective parameters such as lapse rates, helicity, shear (shown as crossover) are at their "best".

60's to 40's in <6hrs, in the middle of the day

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249893 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:23 AM


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A beauty of a discussion from Rausch, on the WPC Extended Discussion desk. I recommend reading in entirety

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017

VALID 12Z WED OCT 25 2017 - 12Z SUN OCT 29 2017

...OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH THE AGREEABLE IDEA OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
OVER THE LOWER 48 BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST AND WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TWO UNCERTAINTIES
WITHIN THIS PATTERN WILL INVOLVE A LEADING EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY
AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ASSOC SURFACE EVOLUTION.
THEN BY LATER IN THE PERIOD FURTHER UNCERTAINTIES ORIGINATING OVER
THE PACIFIC HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT MEDIUM-SCALE DETAILS
EVEN IF THE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE LONGWAVE PATTERN ENDS UP PREVAILING
FROM THE MULTI-DAY MEAN PERSPECTIVE.

THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIAL EASTERN TROUGH WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY
CONTAINING AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW FOR A TIME, LEADING TO POTENTIAL
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD AFFECT NEW ENGLAND PRIMARILY
WED-THU. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE
CURRENTLY INVOLVE TIMING AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND RECENT CMC RUNS
STRAY FASTER THAN THE MAJORITY CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE GFS/UKMET
RUNS AND GEFS/ECMWF MEANS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS QUESTIONABLE ALOFT AS
IT PULLS OFF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH TO FORM A
WESTERN ATLANTIC SYSTEM THAT ENDS UP WHERE ALL OTHER GUIDANCE HAS
HIGH PRESSURE BY FRI. IN ADDITION TO REPRESENTING CONSENSUS, THE
GFS CLUSTER MAINTAINS REASONABLE CONTINUITY FROM PRIOR CYCLE.

ADJUSTMENTS IN THE 12Z ECMWF FROM THE MORE EXTREME 00Z/21 RUN HAVE
YIELDED SOMEWHAT LESS SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THE TRAILING CENTRAL
U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. CURRENTLY THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
THE CORE OF THE TROUGH TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION, WITH SOUTHWESTERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER OR NEAR A NORTHERN TIER-UPPER GREAT LAKES
PATH WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WEST/PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE EAST. WITH THE 18Z GFS (AS WELL AS
NEW 00Z RUN) LEANING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SPREAD FOR THE
SURFACE LOW, AN AVERAGE OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS/ECMWF
MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION MID-LATE WEEK.

WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD
REGARDING POTENTIAL MOISTURE FEED OR EVEN TROPICAL ACTIVITY (IN
THE CASE OF THE CMC RUNS AND 00Z UKMET) EMANATING FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND AFFECTING PARTS OF FLORIDA. THE ENVELOPE
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH GFS RUNS SHOWING THE
MOST PRONOUNCED INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER FL WHILE ECMWF-BASED
GUIDANCE THE LEAST. GEFS MEANS ARE STILL BETWEEN THE TWO
EXTREMES. SOME DEGREE OF COMPROMISE LOOKS BEST GIVEN THAT
EVENTUAL APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY HELP TO PULL UP
SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE THAN FORECAST BY ECMWF RUNS.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST, GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND THEIR
MEANS HAVE STABILIZED OR SLIGHTLY FURTHERED PRIOR TRENDS TOWARD A
VERY STRONG EAST PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING BY THU-FRI AND DRIFTING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST, DRIFTING INLAND TO ABOUT 120W BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO TO BE CONSIDERED AS
MOST LIKELY, HOWEVER CMC RUNS/CMC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE UKMET
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAMPENING/REBUILDING CYCLE FOR THE
OVERALL RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE.
THE LESS LIKELY CMC/UKMET SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
RESHUFFLING OF SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER THE LOWER 48 BY NEXT
WEEKEND. ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD DEVELOPS FOR AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH THE MEANS BRING TO ABOUT 140W BY DAY 7 SUN.
SOME INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE FEATURE CLOSER TO THE
WEST COAST. SUCH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE.

IN ORDER TO ACCOMMODATE CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY OR INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION DEPENDING ON THE REGION, THE UPDATED FORECAST
INCORPORATED COMPONENTS OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF, 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF
MEAN, AND 12Z UKMET FOR DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI. DUE TO ISSUES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC 12Z ECMWF WEIGHT WAS MINIMIZED FRI ONWARD WHILE
ENSEMBLE MEANS GAINED MAJORITY WEIGHT AFTER EARLY FRI TO DOWNPLAY
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODEL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE INITIAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST SHOULD BRING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO NEW ENGLAND AROUND WED-THU AS A SLOW MOVING
WAVY FRONT ENHANCES ATLANTIC INFLOW OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHTER PRECIP LINGERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY ON
WED. THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL GENERATE
ONE AREA OF RAIN/SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MID-LATE WEEK, WITH FURTHER AREAS OF PRECIP NEAR NORTHERN TIER LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND PUSHING INTO
THE EAST. TEMPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME PRECIP TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. DEPENDING ON EXACT
DETAILS/TIMING OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOME LOCATIONS
FROM THE MS VALLEY EASTWARD FRI-SUN. FARTHER SOUTHEAST THERE IS
STILL BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY
REACH FLORIDA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

VERY WARM TEMPS OF AT LEAST 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CALIFORNIA AND CONDITIONS THAT MAY FAVOR WILDFIRE RISK
SHOULD MODERATE AFTER MIDWEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH TEMPS 10-20F ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WED WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S.. EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
RECORD WARM LOWS ON WED, MUCH OF THE EAST WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE TO START THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

RAUSCH


GFS getting kind of eager with the depiction of snowfall along the Appalachians/ Upper OH Valley with this one.
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249892 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:05 PM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Oct 21 2017, 12:26 PM) *

Should be a good warm up to the winter season. This is far from settled and the nuances of each piece will probably change here and there.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249838 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:11 AM


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Time to start another thread for the second of the two storms next week, in our region. As many already know, I have high confidence in outcome when the signal from the Typhoon Rule is such that it is. Here is the GFS depiction of Lan just before it recurves and heads toward the Bering Sea region.

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To recap, for those who may not know, the Typhoon Rule (TR) holds that when a typhoon recurves prior to or just at landfall with Japan, the most typical result is for this storm to use the outflow process, to buckle the jet stream. This, in turn, pumps the heights downstream of the system and can/usually does raise the PNA across the continent, allowing for colder air to dislodge into a (usually) long wave trough across the east.

Additionally, the storm from mid week next week (covered in MaineJay's thread) sets the table for the resultant trough to have an easier time "carving" (digging) deep enough to reinforce the cooler/cold air.

WPC, in the extended disco, has this to say.

QUOTE
FARTHER UPSTREAM THERE IS STEADILY IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN
PRINCIPLE FOR NORTHEAST PACIFIC ENERGY AMPLIFYING INTO THE LOWER
48 AFTER MIDWEEK BUT WITH A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE LEADING SURFACE REFLECTION
. BY THU-SAT THE MOST PRONOUNCED
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO IS TOWARD
SHARPER/WESTWARD TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO A MUCH
SHARPER/NORTHWARD EXTENDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS TREND IS
EVIDENT IN BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM BERING SEA SYSTEM THAT
REPRESENTS THE EXTRATROPICAL EVOLUTION OF TYPHOON LAN
. THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN SEEMS TO FAVOR THE CLUSTER OF 12Z
GFS-GEFS/ECMWF-ECMWF MEAN VERSUS THE 18Z GFS THAT BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CONUS TROUGH. NOTE THAT WHILE THERE IS
DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT AT THE MOMENT, ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW SOME VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM SOME
MEMBERS SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM CURRENT CONSENSUS.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

Given that discussion, it's easy to understand how the two camps come to differing solutions. The GFS allowing for the EC trough, while the Euro emphasizes Western trough - allowing heights to rise in the E.

Euro

Attached Image


GFS - the 6z ups the bid to the Euro and goes even deeper

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And, it's not only upstream that we have to watch. Looking to the south, we see a parcel of tropical energy bringing deeper PWAT values towards the S US. While this influence does not, directly, affect the storm in our region - I believe it does make the higher PWAT and moisture "more available" to the long wave trough and whatever shortwave it may spawn at the base of the digging trough.
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And, finally, looking downstream where we have, what I believe is, a Rex Block in the Atlantic (how strong this is - subject to interpretation). So we have at least some "slow down" in the "now buckled" flow.


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Amazingly, that block has been consistently signaled in most GFS runs over the past 5 days, and a few Euro Op runs, TBH.

All that being said, and all things considered, I am going GFS with this system. After looping the Euro v. GFS, as the frame times relate to the eventuality of Lan's course, I believe the GFS has the correct idea due to that model better respecting the overall tenants of the TR.

That would lead to this, or something like this...
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Total Accum does include some from Round One, but 24 hour view does not do the whole region justice. But you get the idea, wet begets wet.

To alter an ongoing pattern, it takes a potent system (Lan) and supporting players (blocking, tropical tap). I believe we just might have that with this potential.

Closing this opening post as it's one of the longest I've probably ever done and my at-thur-it-is is flaring up. laugh.gif
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249830 · Replies: · Views: 1,065

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:44 AM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 04:08 PM) *
Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough
First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip. If there is any blocking (and there is somewhat of a blocky signal going on) then the East could be in for a rough ride as (meaning - if) the system comes up the coast.

Attached Image


Trough #2 waiting at the crest of the flattening Western Ridge


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Yes, Nor' the look of the PNA can, often times, be the only synoptic driver of the outcome - blocking not needed so much (for the east) when we see those large PNA+ #'s.

Thus, I would not doubt it, in the least.

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249824 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:32 AM


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Attached Image


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QUOTE
Stand-alone shortwave over Gulf States Mon will be overtaken by
a significant digging northern stream trough that will
eventually take on a slightly negative tilt early next week as
it moves from the upper midwest and Miss Valley to the
Appalachian Mtns and Carolina Coast.

Models have converged to indicate the center of the significant
rainfall event occurring late Monday through Tuesday evening
when widespread rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches is anticipated.
As the cold front works slowly east across the Commonwealth
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, Sfc-850 mb LIs go slightly
negative acrs parts of Scent PA and the Susq Valley. In addition
to the expansive shield of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall
rates, the pattern appears favorable for a Narrow Cold Frontal
Rainband - NCFRB (with brief gusty winds) to push through as
well.

Then we`ll almost certainly transition to a period of below
normal temperatures for the second half of the week ahead as
flow shifts to the NW as result of deepening upper trough
swinging pushing east across the area. A fair amount of clouds
will occur across the NW half of CWA Wednesday - Thursday with
scattered showers of rain/snow also poss across the higher
terrain of northern PA...and the Laurels beneath the cold core
of the upper trough.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249823 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 20 2017, 03:24 PM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 20 2017, 03:54 PM) *
Should I extend the dates? Or a new thread for the second wave?

Just came in to ask the same.

I would say create a new thread.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249789 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 20 2017, 11:47 AM


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CTP

QUOTE
All medium range guidance indicates that there will be a
significant digging northern stream trough that will eventually
take on a slightly negative tilt
early next week as it moves
from the upper midwest and Miss Valley to the Appalachian Mtns
and Carolina Coast.

Models have converged to indicate the center of the significant
rainfall event occurring late Monday through tuesday evening
when widespread rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches is
anticipated.
As the cold front pushes east through the
commonwealth Tuesday into Tuesday evening, Sfc-850 mb Lifted
Indices go slightly Negative acrs parts of Scent PA and the Susq
Valley. Pattern appears favorable for a Narrow Cold Frontal
Rainband - NCFRB (with brief gusty winds) to push through the
expansive shield of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall rates.

Current forecast rainfall amounts pose little threat for any
small stream flooding considering much higher short term FFG
values.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249775 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 20 2017, 11:41 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Oct 20 2017, 08:04 AM) *
This is the 27th

But still

I hope we see some of this come Nov Dec



I'm not sure I even remember how to forecast during an omega Greenland blocked flow. I thought it was actually all green there now....

I haven't seen a 10 day block chart look like this since I been following closely for a few years

Is it trolling or are we bout to taste a nice serving of what high latitude blocking actually does for US east coast sensible weather


Ha - I had created a post in the Autumn thread about this blocking signal - and it being a long time since I could recall seeing that signal from the GFS. Then my cat jumped on the keyboard and ruined the whole thing - and I was too lazy to recreate it.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249774 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 19 2017, 04:45 PM


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Call me not shocked.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstorie...kely/ar-AAtJCPa
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249744 · Replies: · Views: 184,342

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 19 2017, 03:11 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Last snowfall on or near Halloween, here in the MidAtl was the wound up storm in Oct 2011.

Let's just say, that was not a very good winter that followed. dry.gif

So, if you MW folks see any accumulation out of the EOTM event, let's hope that analog doesn't play out for your winter as well.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249741 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 19 2017, 11:51 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE
CLIMATE...
Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at
Harrisburg and Williamsport.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249731 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 18 2017, 04:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 28,642
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Amplified would be an understatement - but does this translate to volatile, having a hint of double Omega flow?

Attached Image


QUOTE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS AND PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS NOTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UTILIZED 20 PERCENT OF
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST BLEND IN COMBINATION WITH THESE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS. GRADUALLY INCORPORATED THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS FROM DAY 5/MONDAY ONWARD GIVEN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
IN
PLACE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AROUND AVERAGE BUT MUCH OF THIS
FOCUSES ON THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW
.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249704 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 06:33 PM


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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Attached Image


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Their record is 50% with such "long shots" - analog based forecasting (see the notation at the bottom right of each panel for an overview of why they make their call)

http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/longshots.html

StL might agree with this outlook. smile.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249656 · Replies: · Views: 184,342

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 03:01 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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I'll bet many in here would love this look in another 60+ days or so

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249648 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 05:56 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 17 2017, 06:41 AM) *
I do believe this has organic forecasting support, but I'm too lazy this morning to dig it up. smile.gif

I believe I saw JD mentioning BSR support, but that may have been for the second system.

The second system seems to have the support of the Typhoon Rule, as Lan recurves ~22d. With a 7-10d lag thereafter, puts us near the Halloween/All Saint's Day time period.

There is, currently, a robust gale, taking a similar path to a system that would come from the TR path, so that lends some credence to the notion of a quick hitter trough in the East for this threads time period.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249635 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 04:30 AM


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I considered opening a thread for these dates - while I was posting in the LR Autumn thread. Nice job starting this one off.

We just might have two to get through before the EOTM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249632 · Replies: · Views: 3,144

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 03:08 PM


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Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough


First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip. If there is any blocking (and there is somewhat of a blocky signal going on) then the East could be in for a rough ride as (meaning - if) the system comes up the coast.

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Trough #2 waiting at the crest of the flattening Western Ridge


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Yes, Nor' the look of the PNA can, often times, be the only synoptic driver of the outcome - blocking not needed so much (for the east) when we see those large PNA+ #'s.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249617 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 11:45 AM


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Well, this look is certainly interesting.

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249610 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 12:46 PM


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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 14 2017, 10:31 AM) *
Trying to gauge the interest, or lack thereof, in this thread based on how many pages past years had for the long range winter thread at this time. I know it will pick up in the coming weeks, but we are about ten pages shorter than this time last year. Wonder if the past two winters have people a little more disinterested than usual, or people just being shy before winter. smile.gif

By this point, last year (and previous year) I had made at least 3 long posts relative to my thoughts for the winter.

This year I am very reluctant. I'm quite undecided and on the points I'm really thinking about - no one in here would much care for the outcome.

I guess I'll just add that, as for this winter, at least in the MidAtl - I am leaning "bearish".
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249540 · Replies: · Views: 184,342

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