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jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 01:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 23 2017, 08:04 AM) *
92L looks very boring

Nothing for the east coast for the forseeable future


I thought everything was moving towards the CMC? wink.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235121 · Replies: · Views: 5,497

jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 02:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


I have a feeling that we'll see only the 2nd tropical storm name retired after this.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235081 · Replies: · Views: 12,817

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


It's official we are published! Once you get past the editing stage we will have it available.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234935 · Replies: · Views: 339,694

jdrenken
Posted on: Aug 21 2017, 10:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 21 2017, 10:00 PM) *
The models are going towards the CMC idea of a low near the coast.


Models going towards CMC of a low near the coast IS NOT what you said in the original post.

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 20 2017, 08:39 AM) *
CMC still has 92L becoming strong

GFS and Euro are catching on

Will the CMC lead the pack?


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 21 2017, 10:00 PM) *
I had a feeling that was him on that page lol


Don't get me started on that guy! Always referencing some storm in Jersey back in the day.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234899 · Replies: · Views: 5,497

jdrenken
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 01:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(shane o mac @ Aug 20 2017, 01:09 PM) *
Lol its called CMC for a reason (Constantly Making Cyclones) !


What's funny is that a name that I haven't heard of for years, Dave Paterno, posted a warning to everyone on his FB Weather Page using the Canadian as his reasoning. I can still remember when he would flood Henry's Accuweather FB page with his junk and we had to ban him.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234804 · Replies: · Views: 5,497

jdrenken
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 12:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 20 2017, 08:39 AM) *
CMC still has 92L becoming strong

GFS and Euro are catching on

Will the CMC lead the pack?


Keep that CMC=gospel in the Facebook groups that you are a member of! You know darn well that the Canadian turns every tropical storm it can into a CAT5. Honestly Anthony...you know better than to make post like this.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234800 · Replies: · Views: 5,497

jdrenken
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 04:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 05:49 AM) *
While most of the tropics attention is currently in the Atlantic basin (with good cause for many, I admit), a look at the Trop Pac region shows the recurve of Typhoon Banyan. As we know from our TR observations, such recurve leads to an E US trough in the day 7-10 time pd

[attachment=327417:P_48hrsfc.gif]

As acknowledged in the Extended Disco from WPC
So, it's no shock that the global models are reflecting that in their medium to long range time period. 6z GFS Operational run, for example.

[attachment=327418:gfs_T2ma_neus_39.png]

Even for the warm time period, a 12-16 anom in surface temps will be noticeable to most.

I don't have Euro surface temp maps but the 850mb view reflects a similar outcome.

[attachment=327419:ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png]

I would imagine the cool down would be preceded by a front passage and even though the air mass out in front is not overly hot, the contrast in temperature should help aide other dynamic aspects and lead to a decent outbreak of storms near or at severe level


Been watching the potential since the 6th-8th.

CODE
6 Aug 2017    1013.74    1012.75    -3.82    6.86    0.41
7 Aug 2017    1012.50    1013.55    -16.21    5.90    0.40
8 Aug 2017    1011.13    1013.95    -26.95    4.68    0.30


What's this about the "marriage"? laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234515 · Replies: · Views: 2,920

jdrenken
Posted on: Aug 1 2017, 09:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Dr. Lupo and I have submitted a new SOI abstract and are finishing up our BSR/EAR paper revision request. The break from social media as a whole has been a godsend. On a side note....SOI link isn't even close to 30 days via the data we are finding.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2233520 · Replies: · Views: 339,694

jdrenken
Posted on: Aug 1 2017, 08:56 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Keep up the good work gang! I've been focusing on my individual SOI research and have stayed off of social media. Doctor Lupo and I are finding amazing things!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2233519 · Replies: · Views: 48,249

jdrenken
Posted on: May 19 2017, 12:37 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 18 2017, 05:48 PM) *
Euro OP supports the thoughts for the last week of May per BSR... EPS says lol nope



FWIW...

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2228660 · Replies: · Views: 103,875

jdrenken
Posted on: May 11 2017, 06:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Went ahead and shaved a few days off. That being said...not bad estimation of the end date that far out.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228017 · Replies: · Views: 5,055

jdrenken
Posted on: May 11 2017, 06:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 11 2017, 03:08 PM) *
Straight out of the Caribbean (as I mentioned in the OFM thread)

[attachment=325960:gfs_mslp...zn_us_46.png]

No telling whether this is going to play out as this Op run depicted, but the signals seemed to be there and continue to be there.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228016 · Replies: · Views: 13,106

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2017, 12:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


When a climate scientist doesn't understand that a forecasted Wave number 6 pattern didn't cause the severe weather event last night.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227419 · Replies: · Views: 13,106

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2017, 12:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


When a climate scientist doesn't understand that a forecasted Wave number 6 pattern didn't cause the severe weather event last night.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227418 · Replies: · Views: 8,726

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2017, 12:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


When a climate scientist doesn't understand that a forecasted Wave number 6 pattern didn't cause the severe weather event last night.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2227417 · Replies: · Views: 103,875

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2017, 12:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(kpk33x @ May 2 2017, 03:22 PM) *
: :lol:lol: along with hour 384 GFS

Hope you guys are not underwater in MO, saw some footage.


Here in Columbia we are fine. SW St. Louis is another story. I was planning a trip to High Ridge, MO but they are cut off from the Northern side of the river. I-55 is going to close tonight in South county and I-44 is closed in multiple locations all the way to Springfield, MO.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227394 · Replies: · Views: 13,106

jdrenken
Posted on: May 2 2017, 01:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


If this was the winter it would've been created 15 days ago! laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227353 · Replies: · Views: 13,106

jdrenken
Posted on: May 2 2017, 01:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


A few local tv station feeds.

Stl channel 4
Stl channel 5

Jefferson City channel 13
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227352 · Replies: · Views: 11,317

jdrenken
Posted on: May 2 2017, 01:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


To show some 'gravity' in this situation...

Attached Image

So to see this type of agreement in the GFS and Euro is very concerning for Central Missouri!
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227351 · Replies: · Views: 11,317

jdrenken
Posted on: May 2 2017, 01:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Forecast Rodeo Comparisons
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2227349 · Replies: · Views: 103,875

jdrenken
Posted on: May 2 2017, 01:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Forecast Rodeo Comparisons
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2227348 · Replies: · Views: 339,694

jdrenken
Posted on: May 2 2017, 10:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


My post from april 30th in the "other" non-existent thread and yet no thread for the MidAtl/NE.

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 2 2017, 05:32 AM) *
Agreed. The D6-8 GFS looks to feature darned near CPF influence. Will be quite the shock to the system on the heels of a "mostly" warm April in the Mid Atl.


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 30 2017, 07:26 PM) *
5 day means from EPS


Attached Image


Might we start a new one for the NE/MidAtl?

Attached Image


CPC latest

6-10

Attached Image


8-14
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227343 · Replies: · Views: 5,925

jdrenken
Posted on: May 2 2017, 12:36 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 1 2017, 07:04 PM) *
End date should probably be removed, going to take a while for the levels to drop, and as it stands highest crests are more likely mid next week or longer depending on how the upcoming rains unfold.

Either way there is a stopper in the drain down south


I agree...placing a question mark in the title.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227321 · Replies: · Views: 11,317

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 30 2017, 07:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


5 day means from EPS


Attached Image


Might we start a new one for the NE/MidAtl?

Attached Image


CPC latest

6-10

Attached Image


8-14

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227166 · Replies: · Views: 5,055

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 30 2017, 07:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,831
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


I am in the process of finding out what's going on with the organicforecasting.com website. Hopefully the answer comes quickly.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2227165 · Replies: · Views: 339,694

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