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WeatherMonger
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:16 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Late week will have the better chance at more organized severe weather. Kind of hoping for a low turnout on this one, being Memorial day weekend and lots of outdoor activities associated with it.


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Wednesday) Model consensus is that a significant shortwave
trough will move into base of the synoptic upper low and continue
through the Gulf coast area. Cold front will accompany this feature
and move through much of the Fl peninsula by the end of the period.
A moist and moderately unstable atmosphere will likely exist in the
pre-frontal warm sector, and deep-layer winds will strengthen as the
shortwave trough moves through the northern Gulf area. A few strong
to severe storms may develop along and ahead of the cold front into
southern GA and the Fl peninsula.

Day 5 (Thursday) Partially modified Gulf air will begin returning
through the southern and central Plains as a lee trough evolves over
the High Plains. In wake of shortwave ridging, model consensus is
that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the central
high plains by evening and promote the development of high based
storms. This activity will spread east trough the central plains
north of a warm front where it will likely persist into the
overnight supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Some severe
threat might accompany this activity.

Day 6 (Friday) Persistent southerly winds east of a lee-low will
advect gulf moisture northward through the southern and central
Plains beneath an eastward-expanding EML, contributing to moderate
to strong instability east of dryline. Progressive, low-amplitude
impulses will move through this region, and at least isolated strong
to severe storms will be possible along the dryline from OK into KS,
with other storms likely in evolving upslope regime north of warm
front over the central plains. A categorical risk area may be
introduced in later updates once uncertainties regarding timing and
amplitude of these impulses have been mitigated.

Day 7-8 (Saturday through Sunday) While a severe threat will likely
persist from the central and southern Plains into the mid MS and OH
Valley regions, mesoscale uncertainties will be augmented by areas
of ongoing storms, resulting in low predictability.

..Dial.. 05/21/2017
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228816 · Replies: · Views: 301

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 20 2017, 06:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Southern one looking more inpressive for what it is anyway
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228793 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 20 2017, 06:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Northern still confirmed, southern radar indicates

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228792 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 20 2017, 06:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


SE of previous one
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228791 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 20 2017, 06:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228789 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 19 2017, 07:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Just realized, hit 90 degrees for the first time this year yesterday

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228732 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 19 2017, 07:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ May 19 2017, 03:26 PM) *
How much rain did you have? east side of macon county had anywhere from 3-6"

Officially, just over an inch. Realistically closet to 2.5" IMO, ordering a rain gauge now
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228731 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 19 2017, 06:07 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


See how this one goes


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228668 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 18 2017, 02:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Just to the west/northwest of COU

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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS and western MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 181916Z - 182115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for all severe hazards, including
isolated tornadoes, will likely warrant tornado watch issuance over
the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Satellite trends show building cumulus along a warm
front extending across KS into western MO as of 1915Z. The airmass
along and south of the front is strongly unstable, with MLCAPE in
the 2000-3500 J/kg range. As a 50+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet
approaches this region, large-scale forcing for ascent will
gradually increase. Low-level convergence along the front in tandem
with the increasing large-scale ascent should be sufficient for
convective initiation over the next several hours. Recent short-term
model guidance is generally consistent in developing convection
along the warm front by 21Z. Strengthening mid-level winds will
support effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kt, and supercells
structures appear likely.

Although low-level flow is not forecast to be quite as strong as
locations farther west (mainly western/central KS), backed
easterly/northeasterly winds in the 0-1 km layer along the front
will enhance effective SRH through the afternoon and early evening,
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Low-level winds are
forecast to increase across this region by this evening as a
low-level jet strengthens across the central/southern Plains. If
initially discrete supercells remain the dominant storm mode into
this evening, then the tornado threat would increase in the 00-03Z
time frame. In addition to the isolated tornado threat, the very
favorable thermodynamic environment and steep mid-level lapse rates
present across this region will likely support large to very large
hail with any supercell. Isolated damaging winds may also occur.

..Gleason/Goss.. 05/18/2017

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228556 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 18 2017, 11:53 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Previous, I guess he enhanced was taken quite a bit further south into north central TX



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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228523 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 18 2017, 11:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


No real change to gigh risk delineation, some to enhanced and moderate but not drastic


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228522 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 18 2017, 11:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 18 2017, 10:12 AM) *
From Dr. Forbes:


Forbes says no soup for me both days, such is he life IMBY
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228520 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 17 2017, 06:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


This explains a bit of it, last non severe weather post. A bit boring IMBY


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228447 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 17 2017, 06:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 17 2017, 06:07 PM) *
Yeah. Noticed it on the qay home from work. Doubt it is IL dust either, one of those situations where it rains cars will be covered in dust still as it is so far up in the atmosphere

Guess I was wrong, mostly at the surface. Heard there was up to a 40 car pile up on I-72 westbound out of Springfield.

Didn't realize it was that bad, I didn't see much more than haziness and a definite dust in the air smell
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228444 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 17 2017, 06:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(nkovatch85 @ May 17 2017, 05:49 PM) *
Slightly off topic but we've had an incredible amount of dust blowing around causing accidents on rural roads. I've never seen anything like this in this part of the country.

Yeah. Noticed it on the qay home from work. Doubt it is IL dust either, one of those situations where it rains cars will be covered in dust still as it is so far up in the atmosphere
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228440 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 17 2017, 03:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Introduced a hatching within the 10% tornado risk with latest update.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228414 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 17 2017, 07:52 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


ILX made an interactive map of the 24 tornados thus far in IL. Probably not real mobile friendly


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Link

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2228380 · Replies: · Views: 67,447

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 12 2017, 09:10 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(WestLafayette62 @ May 12 2017, 08:37 AM) *
Looking forward to the ring of Fire pattern this summer. Always fun.

Unless of course you are stuck in the fire and miss the ring laugh.gif , all of this moisture in the ground is going to prove for some very muggy days. Then again, evapotranspiration may lead to some fun pulse storms as well when conditions are favorable.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228045 · Replies: · Views: 15,740

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 11 2017, 12:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 11 2017, 09:13 AM) *
Coworker took this picture on the way to work this morning


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 11 2017, 10:29 AM) *
blink.gif blink.gif blink.gif blink.gif


I migt have to call him out on this one, he is not on social media and have now seen it posted several times on Facebook. Appears to be from last night, possibly a different angle as to what Melissa posted above.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227989 · Replies: · Views: 4,446

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 11 2017, 10:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Looks like this thread will end for me on Saturdaym return to the 80's starts Sunday. Technically ended a couple days ago when we hit 89.

I've only turned the air on twice this year, both times was after mowing and only long enough to cool the house.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227983 · Replies: · Views: 2,013

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 11 2017, 09:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Coworker took this picture on the way to work this morning


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227976 · Replies: · Views: 4,446

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 10 2017, 07:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Looks menacing. Probably moving into a more favorable atmosphere as it heads SE

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227923 · Replies: · Views: 4,446

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 10 2017, 07:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Dramaqueens

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227922 · Replies: · Views: 4,446

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 10 2017, 07:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 10 2017, 07:21 PM) *
Ehh, pick your poison... lol.

I live in the worst location ever, both state and county and then followed by city
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227921 · Replies: · Views: 4,446

WeatherMonger
Posted on: May 10 2017, 07:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,045
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


If the winds were 30mph I'd be surprised. Family in Jacksonville without power
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227918 · Replies: · Views: 4,446

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