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> Dec 21-23rd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm / Ice Storm Observations, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations - Two Part Storm
Solstice
post Dec 21 2017, 08:05 PM
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Precipitation (stage one) has started in the region as evidenced by radar and METAR data.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 8 2018, 10:47 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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HV Snowstorm
post Dec 21 2017, 08:43 PM
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Really need that first batch of precip to come in farther south than modeled to get any snow here, basicly has to whole batch of precip running north about the Albany area, leaving us dry until the warmer temps come in with the rain.

This post has been edited by HV Snowstorm: Dec 21 2017, 08:44 PM
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telejunkie
post Dec 21 2017, 08:51 PM
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To albanyweather's point (from the forecast thread)...big bust potential when my 'most likely' = 'high end' amounts...
most likely:

Attached Image


high end:

Attached Image


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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skpnwrk2ply
post Dec 21 2017, 09:07 PM
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This should get interesting Expanding Wx Advisories from KBoxKBox


.SHORT TERM /5 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

*** Wintry Mix Will Make For Hazardous Conditions Fri-Sat ***

Initially, warm front associated with nose of weak LLJ will lead to broad isentropic lift across the region early morning into Fri afternoon. Lift and moistening through the -12C to -18C DGZ is expected through early afternoon however, soundings show relatively dry air below H8 particularly S of the Mass Pike through much of the day, which should limit snowfall accumulations there. Areas where best dendritic growth, moisture and lift coincide remains along and north of Route 2 in MA, with SN beginning around 3-5AM and shifting ESE through 15Z. Will feature an area with 2-4 inches along/N of Route 2, 1-3 along the Mass Pike to Route 2, with a coating to an inch in N CT/RI and SE MA. Areas along the immediate S coast will likely be too warm by the time afternoon precip begins.

Fri afternoon and evening, there is a gradual shift as a meso low pres develops along the warm frontal boundary which continues to attempt a N shift. At the same time, noting a dry slot aloft, which will limit moisture in the DGZ while the lower lvls moisten. This will lead to less ice through the column and lack of dendritic growth should allow for a S-N switch to sleet then to light FZRA through the evening hours. Meso-low will also enhance isallobaric drainage flow with winds shifting more NNE through the evening and overnight within a regime signaling a classic cold air damming signature (inverted ridge, N flow).
While temps through the day will likely be below freezing away from the coast thanks to this CAD signature, the enhanced northerlies provided by the mesolow could even lead to an overnight cooling effect, leading to more widespread freezing. Final QPF totals through Fri night rest between the 0.25 to 0.5 mark, and given temps will be in the 20s along the MA NH/VT border, this is where highest ice accums are likely. Will highlight 0.1-0.25in ice accums mainly N of the Pike, with a T-0.1 further S.

All this warrants expansion of Winter WX Advisories. Will be hoisting for all of N CT/RI and the remainder of MA outside of the SE coastal plain (Bristol/Plymouth, Cape/Islands).

This post has been edited by skpnwrk2ply: Dec 21 2017, 09:18 PM
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HV Snowstorm
post Dec 21 2017, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Dec 21 2017, 08:51 PM) *
To albanyweather's point (from the forecast thread)...big bust potential when my 'most likely' = 'high end' amounts...
most likely:

Attached Image


high end:

Attached Image


They also have your low end chance at 5" (1/10)....
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MaineJay
post Dec 21 2017, 09:24 PM
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CIPS ZR analogs

Attached Image


http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.ph...amp;map=thbFZRA


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 21 2017, 09:58 PM
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Models continue to trend colder for sat, what was once mid 40s and rain is now mid 30s with a mix..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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MaineJay
post Dec 21 2017, 10:00 PM
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GYX update

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update...Honestly this is the easier forecast of the two storm
systems given that it will just be one ptype until very late and
after most of the QPF has fallen. The difficult part is that
snowfall amounts look to be in that 4 to 7 inch range...either
side of warning criteria. GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement
that strongest frontogenesis will slice thru the center of the
forecast area Fri...with a good signal for an enhanced band of
snowfall S of the mtns in the vicinity of the Lakes Region into
far SWrn ME. CMC-NHem and NAM forcing looks to be farther
N...but displaced from QPF fields. Based on regional radar
mosaic...the GFS/ECMWF combo appears to be handling banded
precip better.
I will be taking a look at early 00z guidance
before any headline decisions are made.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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MaineJay
post Dec 21 2017, 10:01 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Dec 21 2017, 09:58 PM) *
Models continue to trend colder for sat, what was once mid 40s and rain is now mid 30s with a mix..



Same here.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=LEW


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Solstice
post Dec 21 2017, 10:16 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Dec 21 2017, 08:51 PM) *
To albanyweather's point (from the forecast thread)...big bust potential when my 'most likely' = 'high end' amounts...
most likely:

Attached Image


Yeah... bust seems all too likely. Snowfall ratios will probably start off as high then progressively lower through the day. I don't think this snowfall will be observed in terms of snowdepth, as the lighter stuff on bottom will be compacted very fast. Then add the soaking rain in the valleys... very messy ending.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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MaineJay
post Dec 21 2017, 10:46 PM
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GFS bringing better backside snow for some. Looks colder too.

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MaineJay
post Dec 21 2017, 11:10 PM
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Yup, slight uptick for some

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MaineJay
post Dec 21 2017, 11:29 PM
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Cold air is beginning to drain down east of the Appalachians.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...b.php?sector=16


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telejunkie
post Dec 21 2017, 11:43 PM
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Could be a tough drive for those heading out after work tomorrow or driving to Pine Tree hoping for a White Christmas...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Dec 21 2017, 11:43 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MaineJay
post Dec 21 2017, 11:46 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Dec 21 2017, 11:43 PM) *
Could be a tough drive for those heading out after work tomorrow or driving to Pine Tree hoping for a White Christmas...



I have to bring my daughter to a doctor's appointment in PWM, at that time, usually 45 minutes each way. We'll see tomorrow. smile.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 22 2017, 12:17 AM
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Thanks for firing up the obs

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Dec 22 2017, 12:17 AM


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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 22 2017, 12:23 AM
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Pouring snow out right now, huge fluffy flakes..Could be a nice surprise with 1/2” liquid in the form of high ratio snow, at least at first..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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albanyweather
post Dec 22 2017, 12:33 AM
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Nice streamer on radar but dry air chewing it up. Nothing...


--------------------
Snowfall 2017-2018: 66.6"
2016-2017: 58.7"
2015-2016: 13.1"
2014-2015: 72.1"
2013-2014: 79"
2012-2013: 48.8"
2011-2012: 23.3"
2010-2011: 80.2"
Seasonal Normal: 60.3"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 22 2017, 12:52 AM
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Hrrr trending weather, wouldn’t be surprised to pick up warning criteria..

Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 22 2017, 02:11 AM
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Euro looks like mostly all snow on Saturday lol

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Dec 22 2017, 02:11 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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