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> Dec 13-14 MidAtl/NE Clipper Observations, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Solstice
post Dec 13 2017, 04:37 PM
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Precipitation has begun in Western PA.

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I'm gonna count this as a sneaky bonus page toppah.

Once upon a time there was a snowcouple. One day, the snowwoman said to the snowman, "there's Snowman I would rather be with." He was heartbroken and melted shortly afterwards.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 13 2017, 04:38 PM


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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NorEaster07
post Dec 13 2017, 04:46 PM
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High Ratio event..

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
340 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Winds will be subsiding this evening has the pressure gradient
weakens between low pressure systems. Mostly clear skies will
start the night, but will quickly become mostly cloudy to
overcast as the clipper low fast approaches from the west.
Already beginning to see light echoes in western PA as warm
advection commences there. This warm advection is progged to
to start in the middle levels after 03z west of the Hudson River
and 05-06z east of the Hudson River. Light snow will overspread
the region from west to east with this warm advection. Main vort
max associated with the clipper will swing around the base of
the mean upper trough and enhance lift, especially 09z-12z. The
surface low translates south of the area during this time,
which could help to enhance snowfall on Long Island. These
features quickly translate east as the upper trough, vort max,
and surface low move offshore 13-15z. Lift all also be
maximized in the dendritic growth zone between 750 and 900 mb
from around 09z to 13z across eastern Long Island.

Models have continued to come into better agreement with the
above scenario with the biggest uncertainty lies within the
mesoscale details, mainly across Long Island. Latest thinking is
for around a tenth of an inch of liquid across the interior,
increasing to around two tenths across Long Island. There may be
a shadow effect over NYC and NE NJ as the surface low moves
downslope of the higher terrain to the west.

For snowfall accumulation, 2 to 3 inches are forecast in the
advisory area across Long Island with 1 to 2 inches elsewhere.
There could be locally higher amounts with any enhancement or
banding on Long Island, so it would not be surprising if a few
spots reach closer to 4 inches. SREF plumes, NAM, NAM-3km, and
HRRR all support this forecast thinking. The snow should be a
higher ratio, powdery snow, potentially around 15:1 near the
coast and 17-18:1 across the interior
.

The snow ends on the east end around 15z with skies quickly
clearing from west to east. It will become breezy as high
pressure builds in from the west Thursday afternoon. Highs well
below normal in the upper 20s and lower 30s are forecast
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 04:47 PM
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I could see how NYC to CHH receives 3-6"+
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avsguy01
post Dec 13 2017, 04:47 PM
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Yeah! Graduated out of my first created possibility thread. Thank you Solstice for making the OBs thread! Happy observing!
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 13 2017, 04:53 PM
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Have some lenticular clouds again down here at BWI. If you happen to be in the area look to you south and west and should be able to see them, probably for not a whole lot longer though as the sun has set.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post Dec 13 2017, 04:57 PM
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Snow encroaching quickly, renegade style - out front of the main moisture.

-SN now reported from an Altoona to Dubois (PA) axis - as per Aviation Metar


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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 13 2017, 04:59 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 13 2017, 06:57 PM) *
Snow encroaching quickly, renegade style - out front of the main moisture.

-SN now reported from an Altoona to Dubois (PA) axis - as per Aviation Metar


There is decent upper level support that makes me think this is going to have more snow. Take a look at 500 right front entrance placed right over SEPA and MD region. Should really see it fill in later on and then as the energy from the vort swings through that should add to vertical velocities. I always liked clippers.

We should also be able to set up a nice frontogenesis region which as many know gave us a nice bout of snow from the last system. Fronto regions are not easily modeled and usually are a nowcasting situation but when you see regions of compacting isotherms than well you know you have something.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Dec 13 2017, 05:01 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 05:01 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 13 2017, 04:59 PM) *
There is decent upper level support that makes me think this is going to have more snow. Take a look at 500 right front entrance placed right over SEPA and MD region. Should really see it fill in later on and then as the energy from the vort swings through that should add to vertical velocities. I always liked clippers



I find them classic monsters with the potential to do more, I remember one clipper produced a 24" snowstorm on Harwich, MA
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 13 2017, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 13 2017, 07:01 PM) *
I find them classic monsters with the potential to do more, I remember one clipper produced a 24" snowstorm on Harwich, MA


It will be interesting on the Cape for sure models are showing possible convective activity as it really tries to take off. Wouldnt be surprised if some places on eastern LI and Cape happen to get 4-8" maybe more but again will have to see as it draws closer.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Miller A
post Dec 13 2017, 05:06 PM
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WWA extended in western NJ
Holly even upped their map at3:51, doubling Motown from 1" to be 2"
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--------------------
12/09 04.00" MA
12/14 02.00" MA
12/25 02.70" co-op obs
12/30 00.90" MA
01/04 04.80" trained spotter
01/16 06.00" MA

SEASON TOTAL 20.40"


TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 13 2017, 05:06 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 13 2017, 06:47 PM) *
I could see how NYC to CHH receives 3-6"+


Unfortunately on that front im not liking the models on how they are handling around NYC, giant donut hole showing up before things get going again on LI and southern CT on east. Could see areas of NNJ, outside of elevation, and NYC region getting maybe 1-3.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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grandpaboy
post Dec 13 2017, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 13 2017, 04:47 PM) *
I could see how NYC to CHH receives 3-6"+


Please show me guidance that supports 3 to 6 inches in NYC...


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whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 13 2017, 05:06 PM) *
Unfortunately on that front im not liking the models on how they are handling around NYC, giant donut hole showing up before things get going again on LI and southern CT on east. Could see areas of NNJ, outside of elevation, and NYC region getting maybe 1-3.


I am not too familiar with that area, unlike SNE where I am very familiar, I think the system will ramp up as it reaches the waters south of LI.
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 13 2017, 05:06 PM) *
Unfortunately on that front im not liking the models on how they are handling around NYC, giant donut hole showing up before things get going again on LI and southern CT on east. Could see areas of NNJ, outside of elevation, and NYC region getting maybe 1-3.


The convective side of things has me intrigued
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Solstice
post Dec 13 2017, 05:14 PM
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Rain-snow line getting awfully close to Long Island...


Attached Image


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 13 2017, 05:18 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Dec 13 2017, 07:12 PM) *
I am not too familiar with that area, unlike SNE where I am very familiar, I think the system will ramp up as it reaches the waters south of LI.


Not too familiar with what region NYC? even just taking a look at models it shows a quick thump of maybe 1-2" across NYC before slowing and probably stopping and then picking back up but just a little too late for NYC to cash in on more than maybe another inch.

QUOTE(Solstice @ Dec 13 2017, 07:14 PM) *
Rain-snow line getting awfully close to Long Island...


Attached Image


If anything may have some quick pinging action but other than that should maintain as snow not much warm air will be able to flood in since it is moving quick this go around. Cape may also get close to some pinging action but probably should stay all snow.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 05:20 PM
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21z RAP brings a band into the region from WSW to ENE
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 13 2017, 05:18 PM) *
Not too familiar with what region NYC? even just taking a look at models it shows a quick thump of maybe 1-2" across NYC before slowing and probably stopping and then picking back up but just a little too late for NYC to cash in on more than maybe another inch.
If anything may have some quick pinging action but other than that should maintain as snow not much warm air will be able to flood in since it is moving quick this go around. Cape may also get close to some pinging action but probably should stay all snow.



No pinging with the amount of cold air present throughout the column
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 05:22 PM
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Enhanced cold cloud tops developing over eastern VA and MD
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 13 2017, 05:22 PM
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Washington DC could get some accumulation as well next six hours
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