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> Winter 2016-17
plowguy
post Aug 24 2016, 08:01 AM
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Snow contracts are out. Will see what this winter hold for my area. I'm traditionally not in the lake effect area...everyone around us is. Based just on 28 years of clearing snow I am thinking less than average snowfall for my area, but more than last year.

Enough about snow. Enjoy the rest of the this summer folks!
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snowgeek93
post Aug 24 2016, 05:29 PM
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I'm thinking close to or right around average snowfall fr my area. We better not have another below normal year here and I can't see that being an issue unless some other factors pop up.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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knorthern_knight
post Aug 25 2016, 07:43 PM
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For those of you who want to follow ENSO more closely as winter approaches, here are 2 interesting URLs
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stuffradio
post Aug 27 2016, 11:41 AM
Post #44




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Any chance I actually get snow this year? I'm talking about accumulating snow, not snow/rain mix where I can see it falling, but it doesn't accumulate. I'm on a snow drought right now. sad.gif

I'm always dreaming back to 2006-2008. That was a stretch of some decent to really good winters.
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newfiebrit
post Aug 29 2016, 11:53 AM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Aug 27 2016, 02:11 PM) *
Any chance I actually get snow this year? I'm talking about accumulating snow, not snow/rain mix where I can see it falling, but it doesn't accumulate. I'm on a snow drought right now. sad.gif

I'm always dreaming back to 2006-2008. That was a stretch of some decent to really good winters.


I always give you at least 30+cm in the snowfall contest (if we have one this year) if it's any consolation. tongue.gif rolleyes.gif
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stuffradio
post Aug 30 2016, 12:52 AM
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Aug 29 2016, 09:53 AM) *
I always give you at least 30+cm in the snowfall contest (if we have one this year) if it's any consolation. tongue.gif rolleyes.gif

Thanks smile.gif Let's hope it happens this time!
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snowgeek93
post Aug 30 2016, 05:16 PM
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I feel for you guys out west. If I thought last winter sucked here I can only imagine getting almost nothing as a snow lover.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Aug 30 2016, 09:50 PM
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If we do get into La Niņa conditions this winter there is the chance for cooler conditions and more snow out west. Having said that the prospect of La Niņa isn't as much of a sure thing. Looking at some of the longer range models they have really backed off on ENSO negative conditions this fall and winter.

I don't know about anybody else but I'd be ok with a ENSO neutral winter for a change. Also it's going to be interesting to see what the long range models say about the winter in there next update. You'd hope they would start to get at least a better idea of what's going on being the next time they update we will be in meteorological fall.

The PDO for August should also be telling. If it's taken another drop do we start to think this winter might be going the -PDO route? All interesting questions that hopefully will start to be answered with the next update from the LR models.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Aug 30 2016, 09:58 PM
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newfiebrit
post Sep 2 2016, 04:43 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Aug 31 2016, 12:20 AM) *
If we do get into La Niņa conditions this winter there is the chance for cooler conditions and more snow out west. Having said that the prospect of La Niņa isn't as much of a sure thing. Looking at some of the longer range models they have really backed off on ENSO negative conditions this fall and winter.

I don't know about anybody else but I'd be ok with a ENSO neutral winter for a change. Also it's going to be interesting to see what the long range models say about the winter in there next update. You'd hope they would start to get at least a better idea of what's going on being the next time they update we will be in meteorological fall.

The PDO for August should also be telling. If it's taken another drop do we start to think this winter might be going the -PDO route? All interesting questions that hopefully will start to be answered with the next update from the LR models.


Anything is better than a Super El Nino. The record snowfall here came under a weak La Nina so wouldn't mind that, though lots of other factors at play.
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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 2 2016, 08:36 AM
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Yeah, the latest CFS has region 3.4 staying in the neutral range for the winter then actually rising to El Niņo territory by April. That's far out though and will change a lot before we get there.
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knorthern_knight
post Sep 7 2016, 05:38 PM
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I know this is getting desparate sad.gif The Canadian Farmer's Almanac is calling for a cold+snowy winter in Toronto http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/alma...tions-1.3745675 Highlights...

QUOTE
The real cold weather, he said, will begin in October and will largely stick around. Geiger expects the middle of January and all of February to be the worst of the winter, or as he puts it, the time when you don't want to go outside at all.

"It'll be winter in Canada, just as we always dreamed it would be," Geiger, who is actually based in Maine, said.

Some other predictions for the winter?
  • The Almanac predicts a big snow storm will hit sometime between Dec. 8-11
  • There could be some warm-ups, including a New Year's Day to welcome 2017
  • There will be more snow than last year, with some major storms hitting the city as well
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EOsnowmom
post Sep 7 2016, 06:50 PM
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JB's forecast is hot-off the presses too. They're suggesting above normal snow and slightly colder than usual.

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast
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newfiebrit
post Sep 8 2016, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Sep 7 2016, 08:08 PM) *
I know this is getting desparate sad.gif The Canadian Farmer's Almanac is calling for a cold+snowy winter in Toronto http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/alma...tions-1.3745675 Highlights...


Apparently they claim 80% accuracy in non el nino years. laugh.gif

They way they forecast snow events on specific dates always makes me chuckle, we all know it's hard enough to nail down more than a few days ahead alone several months away.
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stuffradio
post Sep 8 2016, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Sep 7 2016, 04:50 PM) *
JB's forecast is hot-off the presses too. They're suggesting above normal snow and slightly colder than usual.

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

There's nothing I like about it.
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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 9 2016, 08:37 AM
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The latest NMME LR model was just released and it has a complete torch of a winter basically for all of North America. Also has ENSO staying cool la nada. Not sure I believe it's going to be such a warm winter just yet though.
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snowgeek93
post Sep 9 2016, 10:27 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Sep 9 2016, 09:37 AM) *
The latest NMME LR model was just released and it has a complete torch of a winter basically for all of North America. Also has ENSO staying cool la nada. Not sure I believe it's going to be such a warm winter just yet though.

We're still way too far away from winter to take any of that seriously. Give it a few more months at least until models and mets can get a better grasp at how the atmosphere is behaving closer to winter.

For the sanity of many of us though, god help us all if we get another mild winter this year.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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JJ Snowlover
post Sep 10 2016, 01:45 PM
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NOAA's Climate prediction center has officially called off their La Nina watch and are expecting a neutral state this winter.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/arti...cool-down/71987

There has been discussion that the North Pacific "Blob" will return along with the RRR "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge", so we could be in for a warm winter, and potentially dry. This will have to be watched in the coming months
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snowgeek93
post Sep 10 2016, 07:21 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Sep 10 2016, 02:45 PM) *
NOAA's Climate prediction center has officially called off their La Nina watch and are expecting a neutral state this winter.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/arti...cool-down/71987

There has been discussion that the North Pacific "Blob" will return along with the RRR "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge", so we could be in for a warm winter, and potentially dry. This will have to be watched in the coming months

I thought that warm blob was good for us as it usually forces colder air into the east? Winter's like 2013/2014 or February 2015 are good examples of this.

What we don't want again is the cold bottled up north and the storms suppressed to the south like was the issue last year due to the super El Nino.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 10 2016, 07:59 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Sep 10 2016, 02:45 PM) *
NOAA's Climate prediction center has officially called off their La Nina watch and are expecting a neutral state this winter.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/arti...cool-down/71987

There has been discussion that the North Pacific "Blob" will return along with the RRR "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge", so we could be in for a warm winter, and potentially dry. This will have to be watched in the coming months


Interesting that they have called off the nina. Especially since region 3.4 is currently quite low at -0.830 as of today. The LR models however are definitely in aggrement that it will be on the way up and we'll be cool la nadaish by the winter. I am thinking more and more this winter may at least start off warm and may be warmer than normal for the most part.

As for Precip I still think we might be in for some better snows this winter than last. I think if we do see the return of the "Blob" and RRR it may be good to have the ridging in the north west pacific if we can get the trough in the south west to digg deep enough we might be in for some decent gulf lows. Like you say this will have to be watched in the coming months.
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knorthern_knight
post Sep 11 2016, 12:56 PM
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We need an emoticon for "Drool"...

https://twitter.com/PowderMatt/status/775013124386725888
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