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> Spring 2017
snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2017, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(JFK @ Feb 1 2017, 03:44 PM) *
CANSIPS is showing an early Spring..



J

Thanks J, copied your post to our Spring thread. Only another month now until meteorological Spring so I don't think it would hurt to open up a thread about it.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 1 2017, 04:28 PM
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The JAMSTEC disagrees tongue.gif
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 1 2017, 04:40 PM
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And the NMME disagrees with the JAMSTEC tongue.gif
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 1 2017, 04:42 PM
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and the IMME disagrees with all of them laugh.gif and so on and so forth...
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MrMusic
post Feb 1 2017, 05:59 PM
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Haha. Ok, so we've determined that there may or may not be an early spring.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Stl
post Feb 1 2017, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Feb 1 2017, 04:42 PM) *
and the IMME disagrees with all of them laugh.gif and so on and so forth...



Ya there's no real conclusion to all of them.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2017, 06:17 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 1 2017, 05:59 PM) *
Haha. Ok, so we've determined that there may or may not be an early spring.

Wouldn't mind an early Spring tbh. Not to say more winter weather isn't welcome but after mid-March or so the warmth and sunshine can take over all it wants. Snow is only good for adding to our seasonal totals by that point.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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JFK
post Feb 1 2017, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 1 2017, 04:10 PM) *
Thanks J, copied your post to our Spring thread. Only another month now until meteorological Spring so I don't think it would hurt to open up a thread about it.


No worries !

J
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JFK
post Feb 1 2017, 09:18 PM
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QUOTE(Stl @ Feb 1 2017, 06:05 PM) *
Ya there's no real conclusion to all of them.


This far out, it's going to be hard to really find consensus.. Personally, I want to ride my bikes. So I am rooting for an early Spring. So don't expect me to go looking for models that show otherwise. ;-) But I sure as heck won't belittle or argue with anyone who'd like a longer Winter. If you are winter lover, it hasn't been that great. Better then last year, but nothing to write home about.

Let's see what the Euro weeklies show on Friday. I am going to try and made an animated gif with them rather then the YouTube vids. It's a little more work but I think it might be worth it.

J
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MrMusic
post Feb 1 2017, 10:08 PM
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QUOTE(JFK @ Feb 1 2017, 09:18 PM) *
This far out, it's going to be hard to really find consensus.. Personally, I want to ride my bikes. So I am rooting for an early Spring. So don't expect me to go looking for models that show otherwise. ;-) But I sure as heck won't belittle or argue with anyone who'd like a longer Winter. If you are winter lover, it hasn't been that great. Better then last year, but nothing to write home about.

Let's see what the Euro weeklies show on Friday. I am going to try and made an animated gif with them rather then the YouTube vids. It's a little more work but I think it might be worth it.

J


Winter hasn't been better down here. Freaking abysmal. If it's not going to be snowy, let's just cut to spring.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Stl
post Feb 1 2017, 10:30 PM
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QUOTE(JFK @ Feb 1 2017, 09:18 PM) *
This far out, it's going to be hard to really find consensus.. Personally, I want to ride my bikes. So I am rooting for an early Spring. So don't expect me to go looking for models that show otherwise. ;-) But I sure as heck won't belittle or argue with anyone who'd like a longer Winter. If you are winter lover, it hasn't been that great. Better then last year, but nothing to write home about.

Let's see what the Euro weeklies show on Friday. I am going to try and made an animated gif with them rather then the YouTube vids. It's a little more work but I think it might be worth it.

J



Everyone has different taste so we can't argue obviously , my point was that there isn't a consensus between models right now and it can't go either way but there is always some signs that nature gives that can help us to have an idea.

In Montreal Winter hasn't been that bad but then again i suppose it depend where you are since im sure the South West of the island has less snow than over here and it does a difference for winter sports and goind toward Laval and North it's even better.

I have to agree though that if you like skating it's not a great winter for that.




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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 08:39 AM
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Here's the spread from the Groundhog ensemble forecast.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...-ahead/70000741

QUOTE
Just after sunrise on Thursday, Punxsutawney Phil declared six more weeks of winter for the United States - a prognostication AccuWeather meteorologists largely agree with.

Across the Northeast, stormy weather is set to continue.

“There will be more rain than snow in the big East Coast cities,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. However, the interior Northeast will have a higher chance for snow as temperatures remain below normal.

"As far as a significant warmup goes across the Northeast, I think you have to hold off til late April or early May," he said.

Cold air and snow will also persist in the Midwest, northern Plains and Northwest, enveloping nearly the entire northern tier of the country.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/groundhog-day-1.3963089

QUOTE
Thousands across the country turned to four-legged forecasters with names like Wiarton Willie and Shubenacadie Sam today to learn that spring is, theoretically, just around the corner.

But the vote was split early Thursday when Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Sam failed to spot his shadow while, in Pennsylvania, the handlers of Punxsutawney Phil said winter would drag on for another six weeks.

It fell to Canada's Wiarton Willie to cast the deciding vote.

Shortly after 8 a.m. ET, the Ontario town's albino groundhog was said to have overlooked his shadow, to the approving cheers of spectators.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/groun...check-1.3960509

QUOTE
Most people see February 2, Groundhog Day, as winter's half-way point.

David Phillips, a senior climatologist at Environment Canada, said it doesn't matter what the first six weeks of winter were like: Canadians are fascinated to know what the rest of the season will bring.

Which is why some people across the country will be poking their heads out Thursday to see what happens when their nearest rodent prognosticator emerges from its burrow.

Based on the models for the next few months, Phillips said there's a chance Canada's groundhogs will get it right this year.

"There's a greater chance winter will be over [in Eastern Canada] because of the milder conditions in February and March, compared to out west, where it looks cooler or at least near normal. So in many ways it may be that we're in bed with the ground hog."

But Phillips said he wouldn't bet more than a loonie on it. An Environment Canada study found Groundhog Day groundhogs are actually poor prognosticators — correctly anticipating the length of the season about 37 per cent of the time.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2017, 09:26 AM
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I never really buy into Groundhog predictions, nature's gonna do what she wants regardless of what these rodents think.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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JFK
post Feb 2 2017, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 2 2017, 09:26 AM) *
I never really buy into Groundhog predictions, nature's gonna do what she wants regardless of what these rodents think.


Wait, what?! You don't believe Groundhog predictions ?! That's crazy talk ! ;-)

tongue.gif tongue.gif

J
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newfiebrit
post Feb 2 2017, 10:26 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 2 2017, 10:56 AM) *
I never really buy into Groundhog predictions, nature's gonna do what she wants regardless of what these rodents think.


It's just a bit of fun, like the farmers almanac.

There is no NL groundhog, but then were pretty much guaranteed winter weather will last at least another 6-8 weeks here even in mild winter. An early spring would be mid April ish, last time I remember that was 2012 so maybe due a milder April (as opposed to shovelling the 40-50cm storms seen in recent Aprils)

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Feb 2 2017, 10:27 AM
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2017, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(JFK @ Feb 2 2017, 09:52 AM) *
Wait, what?! You don't believe Groundhog predictions ?! That's crazy talk ! ;-)

tongue.gif tongue.gif

J


They are no less accurate than myweather.
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bigmt
post Feb 8 2017, 11:24 AM
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Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...plains/70000757

Attached File  accuweather.brightspotcdn.com.jpg ( 54.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
In line with Punxsutawney Phil’s 2017 prognostication, forecasters are predicting winter weather will linger into spring across much of the United States.

From coast to coast, cold air will maintain its grip across the northern tier of the country. Meanwhile, rain, thunderstorms and severe weather will threaten to kick off farther south, leading to a volatile season for many.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 8 2017, 11:43 AM
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Kind of dashes any hope of an early Spring there.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Feb 8 2017, 11:51 AM
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I've never expected an early spring. From what I've read it's always pointed towards a more volatile March with plenty of cold in the mix making storms a strong possibility. I don't think we will get into any sustained Spring pattern until April this year, outside of a brief warmup in March which is common. But my guess is that the first two weeks of March will have plenty of winter opportunities across the country, including Southern Ontario.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 27cm (11cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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bigmt
post Feb 8 2017, 12:15 PM
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Based on past performance we should hear from Brett with the Canada outlook before too long.
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