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#1
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,316 Joined: 5-December 09 From: London Ontario Member No.: 19,973 ![]() |
Looks like we might get our 1st set of Severe Thunderstorms Friday evening in Southwestern Ontario.. Best risk area seems to be London, Sarnia and Windsor being the most likely.
QUOTE ...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect portions of the southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee on Friday and Friday night. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low is forecast to move from the middle MO Valley eastward to the central Great Lakes and OH Valley. Concurrently, a belt of strong and cyclonically curved 500-mb flow is forecast to intensify to 100+ kt over the OH Valley late Friday night. A surface low near the MO/IA border will develop northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by early evening before partially occluding over northern Michigan by early Saturday. A northward-advancing warm front will move from north-central IL and Michiana through southern Lower Michigan by mid-late afternoon. A cold front near the MS River around midday Friday will sweep eastward across the OH and TN Valleys by daybreak Saturday. ...southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... The northeastward advection of an elevated mixed layer and associated steep to very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8.5 degrees per km) from the south-central states will overspread this region during the morning. A capping inversion will likely limit showers/thunderstorms to be near the advancing warm frontal zone during the morning with mid-upper 50s dewpoints amidst strong southerly low-level flow. By early to mid-afternoon, NAM model guidance indicates temperatures will warm well into the 60s across much of the warm sector compared to the much cooler GFS. The increasing influence of DCVA/500-mb height falls coupled with heating will likely lead to thunderstorms developing into one or more broken bands. Strong effective shear (45-60 kt) coupled with MLCAPE increasing into the 250-1250 J/kg range will support strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show moist boundary layers with effective SRH in the 150-200 m2/s2 range over much of the warm sector but locally higher (200-300 m2/s2) over the northern portion of the Enhanced Risk in the Michiana/southern Lower Michigan vicinity. A mixed mode of both linear and cellular (some of which maturing into supercells) is expected during the early half of the convective life cycle. The threats from the more intense storms include damaging winds, large hail, and the possibility for tornadoes. Upscale growth will likely occur during the evening/overnight as storms move eastward across the OH Valley and the severe risk transitions to primarily damaging winds as southwesterly 700-mb flow strengthens to 60-kt. This post has been edited by TriC: Feb 23 2017, 10:12 AM
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Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop. Click to see current weather conditions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
Crazy looking map for tomorrow.
70 in Buffalo 60's in Detroit mid 30's in Hamilton/GTA ![]() -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
Juicy storm rolling towards Windsor.
-------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,316 Joined: 5-December 09 From: London Ontario Member No.: 19,973 ![]() |
17c and muggy here in London 50km north 5c
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Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop. Click to see current weather conditions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,316 Joined: 5-December 09 From: London Ontario Member No.: 19,973 ![]() |
non-stop lightning in London verrry bad storm
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Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop. Click to see current weather conditions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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#6
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![]() Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 422 Joined: 4-March 08 From: Toronto, On Lake Ontario on my Sailboat, ALL yr long. Member No.: 14,129 ![]() |
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 786 Joined: 30-January 09 From: south of Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 17,244 ![]() |
Lots of lightning in the sky to the south of us looking towards Morrisburg and along the river! |
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#8
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,932 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
Really doesn't feel like winter at all anymore around the region.
-------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 84 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
an absolutely ton of lightning headed my way...but if the wind doesn't shift from this light NE flow the storms will probably be killed and be heavy rain-makers instead of t-storms. We shall see.
Currently, can't see across the road due to fog. Been like this all day here...not sure why no fog advisory. -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
it's great watching EC radar when t-storms are rolling through in 'snow mode'. Every storm looks like the biggest tornado in history. haha
-------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
i'm about to get a loooong stretch of heavy rain.
-------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
Wow. Lightning galore. Gonna be a long night. Huge long train of t-storms from Hamilton back through Central Ohio.
-------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#13
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,932 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
Wow. Lightning galore. Gonna be a long night. Huge long train of t-storms from Hamilton back through Central Ohio. Completely insane for late-February ![]() -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 84 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 953 Joined: 12-February 13 From: Vaughan, Ontario Member No.: 28,279 ![]() |
Well this has been something else...
Thank Muskoka may get a fair bit of flooding. At least it's not boring. Clean up some of the salt anyways.. |
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#15
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,276 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Burlington, ON Home Kincardine, ON Cottage Member No.: 21,757 ![]() |
Had a wild rumble of thunder just roll in at 11:30..Big flash of lightning as well. My brother and sister in law drove home from Nashville today and said while they are going through New York State that the temperature dropped 12 degrees in 5 minutes!
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
The most exciting week of the winter probably down here! Fantastic weather events. All time temp records, huge storms, heavy rain. Not typical Feb, but at least some great excitement.
-------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#17
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,761 Joined: 23-November 10 Member No.: 24,422 ![]() |
Experienced my first ever thunderstorm (that wasn't from thundersnow) in February last night...with a temp of 1c...insane
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,530 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
Experienced my first ever thunderstorm (that wasn't from thundersnow) in February last night...with a temp of 1c...insane ![]() Wow. 1 degree? That is pretty wild! We jumped to 12-13 when the storms rolled in. -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#19
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,932 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
So much fog this morning!
-------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 84 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 786 Joined: 30-January 09 From: south of Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 17,244 ![]() |
Crazy! Thunder, lightning, hail and heavy downpour.
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 20th April 2018 - 07:08 PM |