Possible Severe Thunderstorms Over Southwestern Ontario Feb 24-25 Options

[TriC]

Looks like we might get our 1st set of Severe Thunderstorms Friday evening in Southwestern Ontario.. Best risk area seems to be London, Sarnia and Windsor being the most likely.

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect portions of the southern
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee on Friday and Friday night.
Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough/low is forecast to move from the middle MO Valley
eastward to the central Great Lakes and OH Valley. Concurrently, a
belt of strong and cyclonically curved 500-mb flow is forecast to
intensify to 100+ kt over the OH Valley late Friday night. A
surface low near the MO/IA border will develop northeastward to
southern Lake Michigan by early evening before partially occluding
over northern Michigan by early Saturday. A northward-advancing
warm front will move from north-central IL and Michiana through
southern Lower Michigan by mid-late afternoon. A cold front near
the MS River around midday Friday will sweep eastward across the OH
and TN Valleys by daybreak Saturday.

...southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
The northeastward advection of an elevated mixed layer and
associated steep to very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8.5 degrees
per km) from the south-central states will overspread this region
during the morning. A capping inversion will likely limit
showers/thunderstorms to be near the advancing warm frontal zone
during the morning with mid-upper 50s dewpoints amidst strong
southerly low-level flow. By early to mid-afternoon, NAM model
guidance indicates temperatures will warm well into the 60s across
much of the warm sector compared to the much cooler GFS. The
increasing influence of DCVA/500-mb height falls coupled with
heating will likely lead to thunderstorms developing into one or
more broken bands. Strong effective shear (45-60 kt) coupled with
MLCAPE increasing into the 250-1250 J/kg range will support strong
to severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show moist boundary
layers with effective SRH in the 150-200 m2/s2 range over much of
the warm sector but locally higher (200-300 m2/s2) over the northern
portion of the Enhanced Risk in the Michiana/southern Lower Michigan
vicinity. A mixed mode of both linear and cellular (some of which
maturing into supercells) is expected during the early half of the
convective life cycle. The threats from the more intense storms
include damaging winds, large hail, and the possibility for
tornadoes. Upscale growth will likely occur during the
evening/overnight as storms move eastward across the OH Valley and
the severe risk transitions to primarily damaging winds as
southwesterly 700-mb flow strengthens to 60-kt.

This post has been edited by TriC: Feb 23 2017, 10:12 AM

Attached File(s)

 day2probotlk_0700_any.gif ( 26.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
 day2otlk_0700.gif ( 28.17K ) Number of downloads: 0
 refcmp.us_mw.png ( 352.41K ) Number of downloads: 1

 

[MrMusic]

Crazy looking map for tomorrow.

70 in Buffalo
60's in Detroit
mid 30's in Hamilton/GTA

[MrMusic]

Juicy storm rolling towards Windsor.

[TriC]

17c and muggy here in London 50km north 5c

[TriC]

non-stop lightning in London verrry bad storm

[trancen]

Realtime lightning Reports

This post has been edited by trancen: Feb 24 2017, 06:12 PM

[EOsnowmom]

Realtime lightning Reports

Lots of lightning in the sky to the south of us looking towards Morrisburg and along the river!

[snowgeek93]

Really doesn't feel like winter at all anymore around the region.

[MrMusic]

an absolutely ton of lightning headed my way...but if the wind doesn't shift from this light NE flow the storms will probably be killed and be heavy rain-makers instead of t-storms. We shall see.
Currently, can't see across the road due to fog. Been like this all day here...not sure why no fog advisory.

[MrMusic]

it's great watching EC radar when t-storms are rolling through in 'snow mode'. Every storm looks like the biggest tornado in history. haha

[MrMusic]

i'm about to get a loooong stretch of heavy rain.

[MrMusic]

Wow. Lightning galore. Gonna be a long night. Huge long train of t-storms from Hamilton back through Central Ohio.

[snowgeek93]

Wow. Lightning galore. Gonna be a long night. Huge long train of t-storms from Hamilton back through Central Ohio.

Completely insane for late-February

[GreatWhiteTornad...]

Well this has been something else...
Thank Muskoka may get a fair bit of flooding.

At least it's not boring.
Clean up some of the salt anyways..

[Ryan45]

Had a wild rumble of thunder just roll in at 11:30..Big flash of lightning as well. My brother and sister in law drove home from Nashville today and said while they are going through New York State that the temperature dropped 12 degrees in 5 minutes!

[MrMusic]

The most exciting week of the winter probably down here! Fantastic weather events. All time temp records, huge storms, heavy rain. Not typical Feb, but at least some great excitement.

[JJ Snowlover]

Experienced my first ever thunderstorm (that wasn't from thundersnow) in February last night...with a temp of 1c...insane

[MrMusic]

Experienced my first ever thunderstorm (that wasn't from thundersnow) in February last night...with a temp of 1c...insane

Wow. 1 degree? That is pretty wild! We jumped to 12-13 when the storms rolled in.

[snowgeek93]

So much fog this morning!

[EOsnowmom]

Crazy! Thunder, lightning, hail and heavy downpour.