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> Tropical storm Irma - possibly Eastern Canada, Medium range uncertain
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Sep 4 2017, 11:48 AM
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Some forecast tracks are pushing it straight north in to Ontario as a 980 Mb low, likely tropical or subtropical storm.

Once again they are models and really can't be taken as we are looking at 7 to 10 days away.
But there is definitely possible trough in place that could make this surprise many by pulling it back west.
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Lake effect
post Sep 4 2017, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Sep 4 2017, 11:48 AM) *
Some forecast tracks are pushing it straight north in to Ontario as a 980 Mb low, likely tropical or subtropical storm.

Once again they are models and really can't be taken as we are looking at 7 to 10 days away.
But there is definitely possible trough in place that could make this surprise many by pulling it back west.


Exactly, changes with each run. This is the 12Z GFS though:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png ( 182.4K ) Number of downloads: 6

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shane o mac
post Sep 4 2017, 04:06 PM
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Id say we are out of danger here odd usually the storms would come up the coast ..
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Lake effect
post Sep 4 2017, 05:08 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 4 2017, 04:06 PM) *
Id say we are out of danger here odd usually the storms would come up the coast ..


Way to early to say that IMO. This has been all over the place, although the trend has been for an inland track.
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newfiebrit
post Sep 5 2017, 05:25 AM
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Looks pretty devastating for the Caribbean and onto Florida by the looks of things. Been a while since we seen such a powerful hurricane season, more storms brewing after this one!
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Lake effect
post Sep 5 2017, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Sep 5 2017, 05:25 AM) *
Looks pretty devastating for the Caribbean and onto Florida by the looks of things. Been a while since we seen such a powerful hurricane season, more storms brewing after this one!


Indeed, looks like the whole of Florida is going to get completely engulfed by this monster.
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Lake effect
post Sep 5 2017, 02:29 PM
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I think there will be very serious loss of life with this one in the Caribbean and Florida. The winds and surge are looking to be immense, and it's hard to see where in the state you can hide. Miami is going to get trashed, south beach washed away...OK OK, maybe a bit hyperbolic, but still, this is looking extremely serious.

From our standpoint, looking less and likely to be impactful North of the border.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Sep 5 2017, 02:31 PM
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humidex
post Sep 5 2017, 08:55 PM
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http://www.weatheroptics.net/top-stories/e...-hurricane-irma

If you haven't discovered WeatherOptics site, check it out. Henry Margusity is still working in his retirement. This is a link to an excellent video on Irma.I am going to put this site as favorite in my weather favorites folder.
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snowblower4
post Sep 5 2017, 10:00 PM
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Great video, thanks for the link!

QUOTE(humidex @ Sep 5 2017, 09:55 PM) *
http://www.weatheroptics.net/top-stories/e...-hurricane-irma

If you haven't discovered WeatherOptics site, check it out. Henry Margusity is still working in his retirement. This is a link to an excellent video on Irma.I am going to put this site as favorite in my weather favorites folder.

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travis3000
post Sep 5 2017, 10:14 PM
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Excellent site!


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 27cm (11cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Sep 6 2017, 08:06 AM
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Looks like a blocking high will stop this getting anywhere near the North. Jose may be the one to watch for the East, but still way to far out.

For Irma it's now watch and wait to see which coast of Florida gets hit worst and which southern states lie in the path after landfall. GFS and Euro both go up the West coast of Florida then head inland on the Georgia/south Carolina border. THE CMC starts out the same but then heads up the Eastern seaboard, albeit a little offshore. If the GFS/Euro is right Northern Florida and Georgia will get it worst.
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Lake effect
post Sep 6 2017, 09:14 PM
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This is monster is going right over a city with 6 million people in it. This is going to be an horrendous tragedy.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png ( 195.29K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Lake effect
post Sep 6 2017, 09:28 PM
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I have visited the superyaught marina in West Palm beach once...it won't be there come Monday morning if this happens...120+mph winds, 10-20 ft waves. Catastrophic. Hope this heads a bit further East.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_wind_seus_16.png ( 216.29K ) Number of downloads: 2
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MrMusic
post Sep 7 2017, 08:15 AM
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possible catastrophic situation for SE Florida...still so much uncertainty regarding potential landfall.

Anyone else noticing the loop-de-loop back to the west of Jose on the models?? Geez, that would be nuts if it verified.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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puttin
post Sep 7 2017, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Sep 7 2017, 09:15 AM) *
possible catastrophic situation for SE Florida...still so much uncertainty regarding potential landfall.

Anyone else noticing the loop-de-loop back to the west of Jose on the models?? Geez, that would be nuts if it verified.


I so wish people would heed the warning and get out while they can. I see people want to protect what they have but if you aren't around to enjoy it, what's the sense? Get the &*$@ out of there!! We've already seen the devastation in Texas and that was a Cat. 4. Praying for those who stay to be safe.
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MrMusic
post Sep 7 2017, 07:56 PM
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Not thinking it'll come this way now....look at that High pressure sitting over us! Should be great up here.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Sep 7 2017, 08:55 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Sep 7 2017, 10:56 AM) *
I so wish people would heed the warning and get out while they can. I see people want to protect what they have but if you aren't around to enjoy it, what's the sense? Get the &*$@ out of there!! We've already seen the devastation in Texas and that was a Cat. 4. Praying for those who stay to be safe.


Exactly. I think some people believe it is hype. The winds are going to be catastrophic in some parts.
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EOsnowmom
post Sep 7 2017, 09:41 PM
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This person is riding the hurricane out in Turks and Caicos. She's posted update and videos of the storm on her FB page. Crazy!

https://www.facebook.com/ania.morton
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robv1989
post Sep 7 2017, 10:39 PM
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I saw on the tv before heading off to work that there are people out in key largo sitting on a patio drinking and partying, the owner was saying how they're going to weather out the storm and only leave if "@#$% hits the fan", what these people aren't understanding is that it's not a matter of "if" but "when", and that they won't have anywhere to go. I can't imagine how they aren't taking this seriously especially being on an island like that.
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Lake effect
post Sep 8 2017, 05:51 PM
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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Sep 7 2017, 10:39 PM) *
I saw on the tv before heading off to work that there are people out in key largo sitting on a patio drinking and partying, the owner was saying how they're going to weather out the storm and only leave if "@#$% hits the fan", what these people aren't understanding is that it's not a matter of "if" but "when", and that they won't have anywhere to go. I can't imagine how they aren't taking this seriously especially being on an island like that.


I think the important thing to note is that they were drinking. Alcohol, from my own years of extensive experimentation, does NOT make one's judgement better.
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