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> Winter 2017-18
Lake effect
post Sep 14 2017, 07:37 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Sep 11 2017, 07:25 PM) *
What's up everyone. Nice to see you all still on here. smile.gif
Looking forward to Winter! Lake effect - you back in Canada?


I never left in the end. Circumstances conspired to keep me here...got a very good job offer along with poor timing with trying to sell our home. So at least one more winter, and after the last two I am hoping for a classic, along the lines of what TWN are saying in their winter preview, which I posted on the autumn thread, and what Travis just said above.

From the Barrie perspective, I think we could be in for a blockbuster. This late season warmth will really impact Lake Huron temps which were trending around or below normal until recently, but with another week or two of sustained warmth, we could see the lake temp start to track above normal, which is one ingredient for the perfect LES recipe. These two weeks of warmth could extend the LES potential by another week or two into early February. The other LES ingredient is a stream of cold air coming in from the NW, if the center has a cold ridge over it, that could definitely result in some nice LES conditions, provided it doesn't sit too far East.

With the prospect of more Colorado lows crossing the region, I am anticipating an above average snow season here in Barrie, possibly 3 to 3.5 meters in some parts of town (2010/11 had close to 4m for some).

Attached File  avgtemps_h_1992_2016.gif ( 10.91K ) Number of downloads: 0
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MrMusic
post Sep 14 2017, 09:17 AM
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Colorado lows, or Colorado cutters...I'll believe it when I see it!


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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NortheastWind
post Sep 14 2017, 10:53 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Sep 14 2017, 09:17 AM) *
Colorado lows, or Colorado cutters...I'll believe it when I see it!

Less chance of cutters if the La Nina happens.
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Lake effect
post Sep 14 2017, 11:43 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Sep 14 2017, 09:17 AM) *
Colorado lows, or Colorado cutters...I'll believe it when I see it!


I'm sure there will be a GLC or two, and you are more likely to be on the wrong side of the freezing line down there even if they are lows running up the 401, but I hope its not like last year which was GLC overdose.
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MrMusic
post Sep 14 2017, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Sep 14 2017, 12:43 PM) *
I'm sure there will be a GLC or two, and you are more likely to be on the wrong side of the freezing line down there even if they are lows running up the 401, but I hope its not like last year which was GLC overdose.


If there was a cutter-rehab program, I'd have signed up last year.
Can't be that bad again.
The storm track we had in Apr-May was wicked. Would LOVE that!


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 14 2017, 05:20 PM
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Obviously still well too early, but I think TWN has the right idea with there winter forecast at this time. Looks like there leaning towards more of a central trough look which could very well lead to more lows tracking in to S.ON with more frozen precip than last winter.
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stuffradio
post Sep 14 2017, 10:20 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Sep 14 2017, 03:20 PM) *
Obviously still well too early, but I think TWN has the right idea with there winter forecast at this time. Looks like there leaning towards more of a central trough look which could very well lead to more lows tracking in to S.ON with more frozen precip than last winter.

As long as I get a decent amount of snow, I hope we all get snow. biggrin.gif
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snowgeek93
post Sep 15 2017, 06:04 AM
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Hopefully this La Nina doesn't mean a repeat of winter 2011-12 around here. This possible La Nina event certainly looks more defined and eastern based than last year's at this time.



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Sep 17 2017, 03:37 PM
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La Nina really getting going now...

Attached File  cdas_sflux_ssta_global_1.png ( 126.46K ) Number of downloads: 4


A year ago...



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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newfiebrit
post Sep 22 2017, 01:35 PM
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"Cold an snowy" in this region...must be true! :

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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 27 2017, 04:29 PM
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CFS continues to be bullish about the upcoming Nina. You can see by about December it has region 3.4 down to -1.5 which would be quite the moderate event if it verifies.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Sep 27 2017, 04:29 PM
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knorthern_knight
post Sep 27 2017, 11:44 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Sep 27 2017, 05:29 PM) *
CFS continues to be bullish about the upcoming Nina. You can see by about December it has region 3.4 down to -1.5 which would be quite the moderate event if it verifies.

Hi all. I'm waking up from my "summer hibernation". I do a plot at home of the anomalies from NOAA's site http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for This may be more "wiggle matching" than science, but I do see a pattern...
  1. If the 4-week running mean (NINO3.4) peaks around December, it's followed by a big drop to the following December. The recent El Nino peaked around December 2015. Of course it was so ridiculously high, that "a big drop" merely brought it down to something resembling normal.
  2. If the 4-week running mean (NINO3.4) peaks around July, there is a "mehh" drop to the following December. There was a weak El Nino peak this July, so I expect a weak-to-moderate La Nina by December.
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snowgeek93
post Sep 28 2017, 01:04 PM
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Good to see La Nina showing signs of strengthening. Current SST map:



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Oct 4 2017, 09:40 AM
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AccuWeather's early Winter Forecast:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...recast/70002894

QUOTE
Cold and snow to strike Northeast, mid-Atlantic

A chilly winter is in store for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, particularly when compared to last year. For most of both regions, this will translate to an above-normal snow season.

“Areas in the I-95 corridor will average close to normal, within a few inches,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. “Areas away from the I-95 corridor have a better chance at a big snowfall.”

New York City and Boston, Massachusetts, may be the exceptions to this, with early predictions calling for 6 inches of snowfall or more above normal in both cities.

Areas prone to lake-effect snow will also see high totals, including Cleveland, Ohio; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Buffalo, New York.

“I think this year is going to bring a good ski season in the Northeast,” Pastelok said. “And around the holidays we should have some snow for the interior Northeast.”


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Oct 9 2017, 09:22 PM
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Hey guys, check out this site from Ryan Maue. He’s offering free euro precip maps, snow maps and other maps. Up to now there’s been no free to use euro maps so this is going to be very useful come winter time. Here’s the link for everyone. http://wx.graphics/index.php. This is awesome!
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Lake effect
post Oct 11 2017, 07:11 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Oct 9 2017, 09:22 PM) *
Hey guys, check out this site from Ryan Maue. He’s offering free euro precip maps, snow maps and other maps. Up to now there’s been no free to use euro maps so this is going to be very useful come winter time. Here’s the link for everyone. http://wx.graphics/index.php. This is awesome!


Very useful.
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Lake effect
post Oct 11 2017, 07:16 AM
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I'm thinking that with the warm forecast for the next few weeks (if the Euro is right, although Mike has been saying its been a bit off recently), we could be entering the winter with the lakes as warm as last year, which could make for a great LES season. Hopefully, we will have a more favourable storm track through the key months this year as well.

Attached File  avgtemps_h_5_yr.gif ( 14.37K ) Number of downloads: 0
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snowgeek93
post Oct 11 2017, 08:54 AM
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Cautiously optimistic for this upcoming season. La Nina winter's are usually a goldmine for us so here's hoping. Even last year we manged average snowfall in Markham under more hostile conditions.

This post has been edited by snowgeek93: Oct 11 2017, 08:55 AM


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Oct 14 2017, 03:36 PM
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La Nina making a comeback over the past little while smile.gif





--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 3
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Oct 17 2017, 10:58 PM
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Latest Jamstec model came out for Oct a few days ago and it's now showing warmer than avg temps for Dec-Feb for much of north America. Its a bit of a flop from what it was showing with the last update in Sep which was for cooler than avg condition for many locations. This model often overdoes warmth in its long range but it's still noteworthy of the change.
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