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> Nov 28-30 MidAtlantic/Northeast Stom, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
shaulov4
post Nov 20 2015, 11:57 PM
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I have been watching this storm on the GFS, looks like it starts out as rain for most people in the East but then gives basically everyone back end snows with this. Nothing big, but it can bring the first snows for a lot of people this season. The GFS has been trending a quicker moving cold front hence the back end snows.
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Undertakerson
post Nov 21 2015, 08:56 AM
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A good starting point. Spaghetti talk for brunch - compliments of your server, Fred Gadomsky of PSU Weather World


http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/12day.mp4
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Nov 21 2015, 06:02 PM
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18z GFS shows a full blown nor'easter at hour 219-288.
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Undertakerson
post Nov 21 2015, 06:17 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Nov 21 2015, 06:02 PM) *
18z GFS shows a full blown nor'easter at hour 219-288.

Interesting scenario within this Op run, trying to swing a system out of the southern branch and merge it with an approaching shortwave from the mainland - the result, as you say, is an merged storm of note.

Attached Image




As you may remember, I use the off runs to note changes. This off run has a pretty substantial change (new player) - so we'll have to see what the ensembles have to say.

Still a long way out.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 21 2015, 06:19 PM
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shaulov4
post Nov 21 2015, 06:36 PM
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It's the Canadian model....yes the Canadian, but just for idea purposes. Shows a low developing going inland then strengthening as it heads off the coast of the mid-Atlantic.


This post has been edited by shaulov4: Nov 21 2015, 06:38 PM
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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2015, 08:53 PM
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Anyone noting the ENS of the 18z GFS or are we just going full bore with that?


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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Nov 21 2015, 11:24 PM
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I don't have access to the ensembles JD.
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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2015, 11:31 PM
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QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Nov 21 2015, 10:24 PM) *
I don't have access to the ensembles JD.


Yes you do.

PSU has a ton of individual member options.
Tropicaltidbits has the mean
College of DuPage has the mean and spaghetti plot.


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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2015, 05:41 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2015, 11:31 PM) *
Yes you do.

PSU has a ton of individual member options.
Tropicaltidbits has the mean
College of DuPage has the mean and spaghetti plot.

And it looks like only one member even tries to support the 18z GFS big storm idea.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html

And, of course, the 00z and now the 06z really not even close to that one Op run.
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 22 2015, 07:39 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 22 2015, 05:41 AM) *
And it looks like only one member even tries to support the 18z GFS big storm idea.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html

And, of course, the 00z and now the 06z really not even close to that one Op run.

Haha....lol, imagine that

Say it ain't so laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2015, 08:09 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 22 2015, 07:39 AM) *
Haha....lol, imagine that

Say it ain't so laugh.gif

To be fair, there are a few ensemble members in both the 00z and 6z GEFS set that support the storm idea to some extent.

Of those, some are warm dominant (coastal has the most influence, little northern stream interaction) and one or two actually phase the two, but at a few days later.

So, the notion of a potent system is not totally off the table - it's just in the minority right now.

As I said, so much time left that we can't fully remove any outcome from the possible solution set. I tend to think that the original thread title of "sloppy" storm was likely to be highly accurate (if there is to be a storm at all that is)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html
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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2015, 12:51 PM
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12z GFS would be warmish along the coast with decent frozen precip well inland. Only importance is that a storm is indicated - details come later


Attached Image


Again, note that the timing is a bit slower than previous runs - another one of those "details".

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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2015, 12:51 PM
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Verbatim -12z GFS would be warmish along the coast with decent frozen precip well inland. Only importance is that a storm is indicated - details come later


Attached Image


Again, note that the timing is a bit slower than previous runs - another one of those "details". Another detail would be strength - a stronger systems can pull down the cold upper air and provide frozen precip in the marginal areas near the boundary layer.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 22 2015, 12:52 PM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2015, 01:55 PM
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The Euro is not too far off from the GFS at 12z, slight differences but the theme is the same.

Plus, it looks like a system off the W Mexico coast want to take a "Patricia like" path to add some influence via warm and moisture laden bundle.


Attached Image



Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 22 2015, 02:00 PM
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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2015, 02:03 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 22 2015, 12:55 PM) *
The Euro is not too far off from the GFS at 12z, slight differences but the theme is the same.

Plus, it looks like a system off the W Mexico coast want to take a "Patricia like" path to add some influence via warm and moisture laden bundle.


Attached Image



Attached Image


This is one of the things that some of us have been warning the I-95. Mixing issues. Plus...looks familiar. wink.gif


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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2015, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 22 2015, 02:03 PM) *
This is one of the things that some of us have been warning the I-95. Mixing issues. Plus...looks familiar. wink.gif

Yep - those who want all snow along the EC will have to exercise patience. wink.gif

But even us in the inland regions will have to suffer with "slop" - or slushy snow, if anything. At least for now, it does not look like ice would be any worry.

PA deer hunters won't care though, so long as there is "some" white on the ground.

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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2015, 02:58 PM
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Stolen from the Midwest forum - top analog for the storm that starts Meteo Winter (Dec 1, or so)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Winter_...n_storm_complex
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JDClapper
post Nov 22 2015, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 22 2015, 02:09 PM) *
Yep - those who want all snow along the EC will have to exercise patience. wink.gif

But even us in the inland regions will have to suffer with "slop" - or slushy snow, if anything. At least for now, it does not look like ice would be any worry.

PA deer hunters won't care though, so long as there is "some" white on the ground.


Off-topic (12/2) but I checked out some text for IPT, AOO, PIT and MDT .. looks like any chance for T-3" would be in the I-99 corridor .. even here in IPT the 850s range from 0.5 - 1.5c during the modeled qpf. Moisture laden for sure.. ~1"+ qpf for most of those stations (not PIT).

Of course, we're talking 200+ hrs... so, yeah. wink.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2015, 03:26 PM
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Hi-res ecmfw D10

Attached Image


Attached Image


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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2015, 03:41 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 22 2015, 02:26 PM) *
Hi-res ecmfw D10

Attached Image


Attached Image


Looking at the ENS...there is a lot of spread starting at 168hr just South of Hudson Bay. Now...this is key as the spread shows that the trough should be deeper. Looking at the ENS, the BSR did very good per my interpretation of an alberta clipper coming down and transferring to the coast. The specifics are going to come together and I truly believe this will be further west. Keep in mind this is day 10 of the models.


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