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> Hurricane Sandy, 11PM EDT: CAT1 75MPH 950MB - NE@ 14mph
jdrenken
post Oct 21 2012, 05:00 PM
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Yesterday tweet
QUOTE
@Raleighwx If trough is slower/deeper, could force stronger western atlantic ridge, further west track, Florida at risk around 10/28-10/30. #wwather



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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Oct 21 2012, 05:22 PM
Post #22







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[attachment=171627:sandy.gif]
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The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 05:49 PM
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It's not a party until the JMA shows up.
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--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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The Snowman
post Oct 21 2012, 07:29 PM
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A few images I whipped up in my write-up on soon-to-be-Sandy...

Link to write-up

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Oct 21 2012, 07:30 PM
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--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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HassayWx2306
post Oct 21 2012, 07:42 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 21 2012, 08:29 PM) *
A few images I whipped up in my write-up on soon-to-be-Sandy...

Link to write-up


Sandy eh? cool on of my best friends moms can bring me snow laugh.gif
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CanadianKeegan
post Oct 21 2012, 10:10 PM
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12z NOGAPS shows a Florida landfall...

I guess we're ruling out a Florida landfall then
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shane o mac
post Oct 22 2012, 01:04 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 20 2012, 08:07 PM) *
CMC's tropical exaggeration bias + overamplification bias = the above

In some cases, its crazy solutions end up not too far from reality. In other cases, however, they're just as crazy compared to reality as they appear when they first show up.



QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 21 2012, 07:49 PM) *
It's not a party until the JMA shows up.



Pass experience the cmc is by far the worst model to forecast past 72 hours regarding tropical systems . trust me i remember the last 2 ;p

And we all the JMA its my favorite model ;p
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The Snowman
post Oct 22 2012, 06:24 AM
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We're at 80%.



--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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The Snowman
post Oct 22 2012, 06:27 AM
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Surprised no one has posted the ECMWF...


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--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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MikeySed
post Oct 22 2012, 08:38 AM
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Any help/insight will be huge for me.

I am flying to Miami, Florida Friday night (5:20 flight out of Newark, NJ) and arriving at 8:50 pm.

On Saturday (10/27) I head to PORT OF MIAMI for a 7 day cruise -

Saturday - We leave Miami

Sunday in Half Moon Cay Bahamas (southeast island of Nassau, that is San Salvador - Carnival bought it)

Monday - Sea Day on the way (if you picture where I just told you) to Saint Thomas

Tuesday - Saint Thomas

Wednesday - San Juan, Puerto Rico

Thursday - Turks and Caicos

Friday Sea Day

Saturday (11/3) back at Miami


Where is this thing heading?



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jdrenken
post Oct 22 2012, 08:56 AM
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QUOTE(MikeySed @ Oct 22 2012, 08:38 AM) *
Any help/insight will be huge for me.

I am flying to Miami, Florida Friday night (5:20 flight out of Newark, NJ) and arriving at 8:50 pm.

On Saturday (10/27) I head to PORT OF MIAMI for a 7 day cruise -

Saturday - We leave Miami

Sunday in Half Moon Cay Bahamas (southeast island of Nassau, that is San Salvador - Carnival bought it)

Monday - Sea Day on the way (if you picture where I just told you) to Saint Thomas

Tuesday - Saint Thomas

Wednesday - San Juan, Puerto Rico

Thursday - Turks and Caicos

Friday Sea Day

Saturday (11/3) back at Miami
Where is this thing heading?


As long as it doesn't slow down more than already progged, you'll be fine.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Oct 22 2012, 09:47 AM
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Ryan Maue tweet:

QUOTE
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue Still 8-days away -- but I think ECMWF central pressure with 99L off of MidAtlantic coast way overdone at 955 mb.
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Phased Vort
post Oct 22 2012, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


NHC


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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PSUrangers11
post Oct 22 2012, 10:05 AM
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Hmmmmm... My wife and I are all set for a mini-vacation to Jamaica and are supposed to be arriving this Friday early afternoon. Should we be concerned about this? We did get trip insurance mainly because she is pregnant so if there was any complications we could opt-out... didn't think we'd have to worry about anything weather related..... grrrrrrrr.
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Phased Vort
post Oct 22 2012, 10:17 AM
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QUOTE
000
WTNT43 KNHC 221501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

NHC?


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Oct 22 2012, 10:29 AM
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Wxrisk.com
‎*** ALERT ** It is OFFICIAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION #18...soon to be Sandy ... has been Born

http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?ref=stream

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT1...008W5_NL_sm.gif

This post has been edited by TheBlizzardOf1978: Oct 22 2012, 10:51 AM
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jdrenken
post Oct 22 2012, 10:34 AM
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--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Oct 22 2012, 10:39 AM
Post #38




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--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Oct 22 2012, 10:58 AM
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Future Sandy: East Coast Tropical Nightmare or Miss

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
October 22, 2012; 10:59 AM

Tropical Storm Sandy will soon form in the Caribbean, and scenarios for its final destination range from bypassing the East Coast to creating a nightmare for millions of people.
Tropical Depression 18 formed in the central Caribbean at midday Monday and should strengthen into Tropical Storm Sandy by Tuesday.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is confident the future tropical storm will then head northward through Thursday, spreading life-threatening flooding rain across Jamaica, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...t-tropic/546066


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jdrenken
post Oct 22 2012, 10:58 AM
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Recon on the way!

QUOTE
URNT15 KNHC 221551
AF301 01EEA INVEST HDOB 09 20121022
154300 2604N 08809W 4098 07401 0384 -194 -374 300008 008 015 000 03
154330 2601N 08808W 4099 07393 0384 -191 -373 297008 008 015 000 00
154400 2559N 08807W 4099 07392 0384 -190 -377 295009 009 015 000 03
154430 2557N 08806W 4099 07397 0384 -190 -383 291009 009 015 000 00
154500 2554N 08805W 4099 07397 0385 -190 -380 290010 010 015 000 00
154530 2552N 08803W 4098 07394 0385 -190 -369 281009 010 015 000 00
154600 2549N 08802W 4099 07398 0385 -190 -360 282009 009 016 000 00
154630 2547N 08801W 4099 07396 0384 -190 -353 286009 009 017 000 00
154700 2544N 08800W 4099 07393 0385 -187 -348 278009 009 018 000 00
154730 2542N 08759W 4098 07395 0386 -185 -345 277008 009 018 000 00
154800 2540N 08758W 4099 07394 0385 -185 -344 276008 009 016 000 00
154830 2537N 08757W 4099 07394 0385 -185 -345 280009 009 015 000 00
154900 2535N 08756W 4099 07396 0384 -185 -348 282009 009 016 000 00
154930 2532N 08754W 4099 07396 0385 -185 -345 281009 009 017 000 00
155000 2530N 08753W 4099 07393 0384 -185 -343 281008 008 016 000 00
155030 2527N 08752W 4098 07394 0386 -185 -335 274007 008 017 000 00
155100 2525N 08751W 4099 07397 0386 -185 -321 273006 007 017 000 00
155130 2523N 08750W 4098 07396 0386 -184 -335 273006 007 017 000 00
155200 2520N 08749W 4099 07394 0385 -184 -354 281007 008 018 000 00
155230 2518N 08748W 4099 07397 0385 -185 -350 284009 009 018 000 00
$$


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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