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> Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs
Phased Vort
post Oct 6 2017, 05:26 PM
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18Z GFS develops a tropical system coming from the central Atlantic and takes it into Florida. blink.gif


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Undertakerson
post Oct 6 2017, 05:36 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 6 2017, 06:26 PM) *
18Z GFS develops a tropical system coming from the central Atlantic and takes it into Florida. blink.gif

Saw it, had same reaction.

Then again, some few of us, particularly you, sniffed the potential a ways back. Looks like the ride is not quite finished moving - viewers are asked to keep their seat buckles fastened until the ride comes to a complete stop. tongue.gif
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Undertakerson
post Oct 6 2017, 05:39 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 6 2017, 06:26 PM) *
18Z GFS develops a tropical system coming from the central Atlantic and takes it into Florida. blink.gif

As the saying goes - a picture worth a thousand words. Nice job my friend.


Attached Image
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Phased Vort
post Oct 6 2017, 10:34 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 6 2017, 05:36 PM) *
Saw it, had same reaction.

Then again, some few of us, particularly you, sniffed the potential a ways back. Looks like the ride is not quite finished moving - viewers are asked to keep their seat buckles fastened until the ride comes to a complete stop. tongue.gif



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 6 2017, 05:39 PM) *
As the saying goes - a picture worth a thousand words. Nice job my friend.


Attached Image



It could indeed be entertaining even into November.


And hey, thanks for the posts.

The time frame is a bit off, but itīs a fun exercise.


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Undertakerson
post Oct 8 2017, 06:27 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 6 2017, 11:34 PM) *
It could indeed be entertaining even into November.
And hey, thanks for the posts.

The time frame is a bit off, but itīs a fun exercise.

The dates work for me. The overall pattern has not changed significantly since you first posted those thoughts - thus, still applicable.
cool.gif
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stretchct
post Oct 8 2017, 10:03 AM
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Have been looking at this too. Here's the 6z gfs run this morning. I took out some frames to shorten it, but it sticks around for a while on this run.

JMA has it moving into the gulf
Euro has a wave moving into the Gulf
UKMET has a wave
Nogaps has it as a wave moving into the gulf
CMC has it of course, bounces into the Bahamas then out to sea.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Phased Vort
post Oct 8 2017, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 8 2017, 10:03 AM) *
Have been looking at this too. Here's the 6z gfs run this morning. I took out some frames to shorten it, but it sticks around for a while on this run.

JMA has it moving into the gulf
Euro has a wave moving into the Gulf
UKMET has a wave
Nogaps has it as a wave moving into the gulf
CMC has it of course, bounces into the Bahamas then out to sea.



Nice sum up.

ECMWF does not close the wave into a surface reflection. But since most models have the system or the wave, of course we will monitor.

Thatīs what we do, right ? biggrin.gif


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Phased Vort
post Oct 8 2017, 10:41 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 8 2017, 06:27 AM) *
The dates work for me. The overall pattern has not changed significantly since you first posted those thoughts - thus, still applicable.
cool.gif



Overall pattern is indeed continuing as you said.

So much so that the SE coastal waters/Bahamas area and the Caribbean, especially the western Caribbean continue and should continue to be the prime areas for possible development.


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stretchct
post Oct 9 2017, 05:04 PM
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CMC still showing development, but when doesn't it. Crosses FL into GOM.

GFS has a weak closed off low, but the 12z pops one by hr 30, then dissipates it.
NavGem closes one off and sends it NE into a trough.
JMA sensing the same disturbance as the GFS, but keeps it open, moves it into GOM.
UKIE closes one off in the Bahamas at hr 96, but goes nowhere
Euro also puts a low in the Bahamas but doesn't develop it


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Oct 13 2017, 08:33 AM
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I 92 L
CODE
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ophelia, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred
miles southwest of the Azores.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 350
miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are
not expected to be conducive for significant development during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph and passes north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands. However, environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for some development early next week while the system
begins to move northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


I 92L Satellite is bouncing around so can't really tell whats going on.
Attached Image


Currently under 30-50kts of shear.
Attached Image


Euro/GFS continue an unfavorable shear environment (20-30kts) as it heads NE. As it interacts with the trough, it develops and heads out.

This is not the storm showing up off the Mid Atlantic on the 6z GFS. That storm is spun up by the same trough as it departs.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Oct 20 2017, 06:10 PM
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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





zzzzzzzzzzzz


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 4 2017, 11:45 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,862
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Going to put I95L here... its really more central atlantic, but there is no thread for it. Forecast to move north. Low shear for now. In looking at the wider picture for shear, its the ONLY area in the western tropical atlantic without 25+shear.
Attached Image


There is another interesting spot to the west of Jamaica that has some lower level swirl and convection but the upper environment not conducive as its in 50kts of shear.


This post has been edited by stretchct: Nov 4 2017, 11:49 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 5 2017, 07:22 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,862
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470







--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 5 2017, 07:25 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,862
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Shear for that I95L

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stxprowl
post Nov 30 2017, 10:48 PM
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From: Cherry Hill, NJ 5 Miles East of Philly!
Member No.: 20,184





I think it’s safe to say a lot of people are happy to see this after this season.
Attached Image

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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stxprowl
post Dec 2 2017, 09:12 PM
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http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremel...on-finally-ends

https://t.co/D99lrMqmrG?ssr=true
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