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> Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Undertakerson
post Sep 21 2017, 03:43 AM
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Still there out in GFS "fantasy land" range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0


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psu1313
post Sep 25 2017, 08:06 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 21 2017, 04:43 AM) *
Still there out in GFS "fantasy land" range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0


GFS is still trying to produce something in the Gulf at the end of the 06z. I'm not sure if it really is sniffing something out at this point or if it's the long range GFS being the long range GFS.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 25 2017, 11:42 AM
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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Sep 25 2017, 09:06 AM) *
GFS is still trying to produce something in the Gulf at the end of the 06z. I'm not sure if it really is sniffing something out at this point or if it's the long range GFS being the long range GFS.


It is possible with persistent ridging taking place in the eastern US and troughs starting to impact further south pushing fronts more into the GOM but if it doesnt happen within the next month I wouldnt expect much to continue outside of just going into the Atlantic then in November.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2017, 07:15 PM
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I continue to support the idea that there should be tropical development either in the GOMEX or the western Caribbean in the next 10 days, as I mentioned about a week ago.

I favor the western Caribbean, but the similar conditions for development apply for the southeastern GOMEX near the Yucatan.

And I believe the GFS, although its the long range, does have a pretty good idea for the western Caribbean and even for the southeast GOMEX.

The ECMWF, also long range, is going towards the development idea, showing a broad area of constant lower areas, and trying to focus in a center.



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wxruss8
post Sep 29 2017, 12:31 PM
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Yep, looking at hours 198-240 on the GFS 9/29 6Z run looks like a decent tropical system moving up off of Honduras north through the western CARR, continuing north just off the east coast of the Yucitan, then east into the GOMEX towards Florida on 10/9
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SnowMan11
post Oct 1 2017, 06:49 PM
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2 days without a post sad.gif


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Qdeathstar
post Oct 1 2017, 08:06 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Oct 1 2017, 07:49 PM) *
2 days without a post sad.gif



Threats not looking as real. Maybe 5 days or so


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Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Oct 3 2017, 03:05 AM
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Seems like whatever's cooking in the Gulf on these models 7-10 days out won't be strong enough to do widespread damage.
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psu1313
post Oct 3 2017, 06:40 AM
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QUOTE(Its_Miller_A_Time @ Oct 3 2017, 04:05 AM) *
Seems like whatever's cooking in the Gulf on these models 7-10 days out won't be strong enough to do widespread damage.


If something spawns it could get dangerous quick. I wouldn't focus so much on strength on the models but actually more on the cyclogenesis. If it happens, the water temps are definitely there for a strong storm. If shear lessens, you could see a storm get it's act together quickly.


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