Major Hurricane Harvey, 8/25 11AM AST CAT4 50 MPH - 1004mb - Movement: WNW @ 13mph Options

[PoconoSnow]

Caveman art time again,

Trying to illustrate (however poorly) what I'm talking about. Starting back to initial conditions as seen by the GFS - blue is what I believe to be 91L, Red = 92L, Green the emerging wave.

[attachment=327404:gfs_z500...rt_atl_2.png]

lol I thought 92 was the first in line and 91 was second cause 92 actually developed later but is in front of 91

Lololol

Gotta love eaw and their journey across the mighty Atlantic

[MD Blue Ridge]

[quote name='PoconoSnow' date='Aug 15 2017, 04:11 PM' post='2234442']
Yea the split is really interesting and I don't remember seeing something like it in any mid to long range modeling last year. It just keeps popping up on modeling though. It almost looks like 91 and 92 are already separated. All very interesting and chaotic

There will be a breaking point I assume where either all models sway one way or another. It's just not right now
[/quote

Always seems to me when there's a ton of chaos and energies everywhere little organization occurs and limits chances of a bomb forming. Can that theory be wrong? Absolutely. Will it be? Only the cmc knows for sure.

[PoconoSnow]

The 5 day has a nice image to help understand regardless of which invest is which

Still notice they have a yellow area carved out already for the next eaw

[MaineJay]

12z not updated yet, here's the 15.0z ECMWF ensemble tracks. This could go in both threads.

[Undertakerson]

18z GFS fixin to get Florida's full attention. Takes 92L as a weak system towards Cape Canaveral with "93L" developed into a major cane and hot on 92's heels.


And check out 91L energy trying to maintain its own in the Yucatan and 92L in Florida looking to re-emerge into the GOM

[Undertakerson]

Last minute reprieve for FL as the system (on 18z) that is a 939mb beast treks north and Bermuda starts to take note. Actually, at Hr 240, it does try to say "howdy do" to the inland trough energy.

[Undertakerson]

Believe it or not, the energy just N of Yucatan is actually our friend 91L





This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 15 2017, 05:43 PM

[Ron in Miami]

Just to clear up the confusion with some on which invest is which. According to ATCF 91L is the furthest west, followed by 92L. And African wave will be 93L soon.

AL, 91, 2017081518, , BEST, 0, 138N, 428W, 25, 1011, DB

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[PoconoSnow]

Just to clear up the confusion with some on which invest is which. According to ATCF 91L is the furthest west, followed by 92L. And African wave will be 93L soon.

AL, 91, 2017081518, , BEST, 0, 138N, 428W, 25, 1011, DB

Cool thanks Ron

12z ukie tracks for both

91l


92L


Thus thread shouldn't be a catch all for the TDs and eaw's

But these group of waves have all ejected interestingly close together

So rather than mix up more decided to drop both tracks in here for now

[PoconoSnow]

0z euro

Looks like 91L makes the Gomex while invest tbd curls wide right

92l looks to dissipate just north of the Antilles

Still plenty of time and lots of solutions left

[PoconoSnow]

0z uk


Here goes

91l?


92l

Looks to amp at end

Invest tbd

[PoconoSnow]

0z cmc

91l makes it to pacific

92l makes the Gomex

And

Tbd invest beasts wide right

[PoconoSnow]

And last but not least 06z gfs

91l makes the PAC

92l shreds north of the Antilles

And tbd beasts wide right

[PoconoSnow]

06z gefs 91l



Low lat and weak. Can't disregard yet though

[PoconoSnow]

92l more north and eyes on fla



Thus should prolly go in 92 thread but we are still in infancy on both and "93"

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 16 2017, 08:23 AM

[MD Blue Ridge]

0z uk
Here goes

91l?


92l

Looks to amp at end

Invest tbd

Caribbean looks open for business as does the gulf. Time to start following any consistency from Prof Nator. Follow the steamy water.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Aug 16 2017, 09:05 AM

[PoconoSnow]

Well 12z ops wasn't too interesting

Except for uncle gee gee aka constantly making cyclones

It bombs everything



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 16 2017, 02:22 PM

[Qdeathstar]

some convection popping up around the center of the low level swirl...

[PoconoSnow]

some convection popping up around the center of the low level swirl...

Current rainbow top

[stretchct]

WTNT34 KNHC 171439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before
reaching the Windward islands.

If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a
tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).