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#41
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
Caveman art time again, Trying to illustrate (however poorly) what I'm talking about. Starting back to initial conditions as seen by the GFS - blue is what I believe to be 91L, Red = 92L, Green the emerging wave. [attachment=327404:gfs_z500...rt_atl_2.png] lol I thought 92 was the first in line and 91 was second cause 92 actually developed later but is in front of 91 Lololol Gotta love eaw and their journey across the mighty Atlantic -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#42
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 6,890 Joined: 1-February 11 Member No.: 25,332 ![]() |
[quote name='PoconoSnow' date='Aug 15 2017, 04:11 PM' post='2234442']
Yea the split is really interesting and I don't remember seeing something like it in any mid to long range modeling last year. It just keeps popping up on modeling though. It almost looks like 91 and 92 are already separated. All very interesting and chaotic There will be a breaking point I assume where either all models sway one way or another. It's just not right now [/quote Always seems to me when there's a ton of chaos and energies everywhere little organization occurs and limits chances of a bomb forming. Can that theory be wrong? Absolutely. Will it be? Only the cmc knows for sure. -------------------- Blue Ridge Bouncer
Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die. |
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#43
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
The 5 day has a nice image to help understand regardless of which invest is which
Still notice they have a yellow area carved out already for the next eaw ![]() -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#44
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 9,979 Joined: 15-February 13 From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft. Member No.: 28,288 ![]() |
-------------------- Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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#45
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 ![]() |
18z GFS fixin to get Florida's full attention. Takes 92L as a weak system towards Cape Canaveral with "93L" developed into a major cane and hot on 92's heels.
![]() And check out 91L energy trying to maintain its own in the Yucatan and 92L in Florida looking to re-emerge into the GOM -------------------- |
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#46
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 ![]() |
Last minute reprieve for FL as the system (on 18z) that is a 939mb beast treks north and Bermuda starts to take note. Actually, at Hr 240, it does try to say "howdy do" to the inland trough energy.
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#47
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 ![]() |
Believe it or not, the energy just N of Yucatan is actually our friend 91L
This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 15 2017, 05:43 PM -------------------- |
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#48
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,092 Joined: 31-August 10 From: Miami FL Member No.: 23,522 ![]() |
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#49
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
Just to clear up the confusion with some on which invest is which. According to ATCF 91L is the furthest west, followed by 92L. And African wave will be 93L soon. AL, 91, 2017081518, , BEST, 0, 138N, 428W, 25, 1011, DB Cool thanks Ron 12z ukie tracks for both 91l ![]() 92L ![]() Thus thread shouldn't be a catch all for the TDs and eaw's But these group of waves have all ejected interestingly close together So rather than mix up more decided to drop both tracks in here for now -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#50
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
0z euro
Looks like 91L makes the Gomex while invest tbd curls wide right 92l looks to dissipate just north of the Antilles Still plenty of time and lots of solutions left ![]() -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#51
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
0z uk
Here goes 91l? ![]() 92l ![]() Looks to amp at end Invest tbd ![]() -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#52
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
0z cmc
91l makes it to pacific 92l makes the Gomex And Tbd invest beasts wide right ![]() -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#53
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
And last but not least 06z gfs
91l makes the PAC 92l shreds north of the Antilles And tbd beasts wide right ![]() -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#54
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
06z gefs 91l
![]() Low lat and weak. Can't disregard yet though -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#55
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
92l more north and eyes on fla
![]() Thus should prolly go in 92 thread but we are still in infancy on both and "93" This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 16 2017, 08:23 AM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
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#56
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 6,890 Joined: 1-February 11 Member No.: 25,332 ![]() |
0z uk Here goes 91l? ![]() 92l ![]() Looks to amp at end Invest tbd ![]() Caribbean looks open for business as does the gulf. Time to start following any consistency from Prof Nator. Follow the steamy water. This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Aug 16 2017, 09:05 AM -------------------- Blue Ridge Bouncer
Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die. |
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#57
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
Well 12z ops wasn't too interesting
Except for uncle gee gee aka constantly making cyclones It bombs everything ![]() This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 16 2017, 02:22 PM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
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#58
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 660 Joined: 30-September 15 Member No.: 30,610 ![]() |
some convection popping up around the center of the low level swirl...
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#59
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 ![]() |
some convection popping up around the center of the low level swirl... Current rainbow top ![]() -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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#60
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 6,701 Joined: 12-December 08 From: Newtown, CT Member No.: 16,470 ![]() |
WTNT34 KNHC 171439
TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward islands. If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). -------------------- My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis 4-2 6" 3-25 .5" 3-21 3.5" 3-13. 11” 3-7 17" 3-2 .5" 2-18 6" 2-7 1" 2-2 .5" 1-30 2" 1-17 1" 1-4 13.5" 12/30 1" 12/25 2" 12/14 1.5" 12/12 .5" 12/9 7" 74.5" season to date First measurable Dec 9 First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10 First freeze Nov 9 First frost Oct 17 Seasonal snow - normal 44" 2016-17: 58" 2015-16: 33.5" 2014-2015 57" 2013-2014 58.25" 2012-2013 64.5" 2011-2012 30.5" 2010-2011 79" 2009-2010 49" |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 25th April 2018 - 05:35 AM |