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> Major Hurricane Maria, 9/20 5PM AST CAT 5 - 175 MPH - 908MB - Movement: WNW @ 10MPH
Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:15 AM
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QUOTE
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:35 AM
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--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 11:35 AM
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Turns into this on 6z GFS:


and I thought we were in for a quiet period after Jose.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Sep 14 2017, 11:38 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 14 2017, 11:35 AM) *
Turns into this on 6z GFS:



Yep.

00Z ECMWF and today's 12Z GFS also have it.

This one looks like a pretty decent threat.

No rest for the weary.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 11:42 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 14 2017, 12:39 PM) *
Yep.

00Z ECMWF and today's 12Z GFS also have it.

This one looks like a pretty decent threat.

No rest for the weary.

12z GFS also has it stronger and slower then 6z


Ain't no rest for the wicked:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKtsdZs9LJo


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 11:43 AM
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12z will keep this out in the Atlantic:


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:45 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 14 2017, 11:43 AM) *
12z will keep this out in the Atlantic:


Because of never-leaving-Jose...



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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Undertakerson
post Sep 14 2017, 11:46 AM
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Inland trough may catch it though

Edit - did catch it but very late to bring it "in"

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Sep 14 2017, 11:46 AM
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Undertakerson
post Sep 14 2017, 03:50 PM
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Ugh - I just realized that the next TS name is Lee and it seems as if this system may claim that sobriquet.

My Fb gang is already comparing this year to 2011 and Lee did a bad number on our region that go around. This one does not take the same path as Lee 2011 (that formed in the GOM and brought a ton of QPF along with it, was not an Atlantic Ocean Storm.)

I think I'll keep this on the DL (is that still a term? - LOL) for now - if they figure the name, they may get anxious. (only half kidding)
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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 14 2017, 04:50 PM) *
Ugh - I just realized that the next TS name is Lee and it seems as if this system may claim that sobriquet.

My Fb gang is already comparing this year to 2011 and Lee did a bad number on our region that go around. This one does not take the same path as Lee 2011 (that formed in the GOM and brought a ton of QPF along with it, was not an Atlantic Ocean Storm.)

I think I'll keep this on the DL (is that still a term? - LOL) for now - if they figure the name, they may get anxious. (only half kidding)

Hello Lee....





--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 05:45 PM
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Uh Oh Florida: ohmy.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 05:48 PM
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Well that would be the last thing Florida needs:


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
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Undertakerson
post Sep 14 2017, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 14 2017, 06:48 PM) *
Well that would be the last thing Florida needs:

Yuck - not liking one bit. Maybe since it's still out there in the LR folks can catch a break (?)
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Undertakerson
post Sep 14 2017, 05:52 PM
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Attached Image


Caught by a long wave trough and going negative - with another system almost at arms length.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 06:32 PM
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12Z UKMET:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 06:51 PM
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I doubt this one will be Lee.

This one should be another female name. This one should be Maria, perhaps another threat to the US.


Lee should be forming pretty fast and track fast out to sea over the far eastern/central Atlantic, and may dissipate fast as well.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 14 2017, 08:18 PM
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Biggest attention focused here...man oh man...let it end
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risingriver
post Sep 14 2017, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 14 2017, 09:18 PM) *
Biggest attention focused here...man oh man...let it end

Going to be a long two months.
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Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Sep 14 2017, 09:17 PM
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GFS has it losing a ton of strength over Hispanola. But then regaining it over the Bahamas.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:30 PM
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00Z GFS slams Maria right into the Leeward island, Guadalupe, etc and then pummels Puerto Rico with a pretty potent hurricane.

Around 940mb.



Attached Image


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