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> Major Hurricane Maria, 9/20 5PM AST CAT 5 - 175 MPH - 908MB - Movement: WNW @ 10MPH
Undertakerson
post Sep 25 2017, 04:45 PM
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Of course, still not a LF situation, but could mean even rougher treatment for OBX.
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JSGolf
post Sep 25 2017, 04:57 PM
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I'm on vacation in the Outer Banks. Here's some aerial footage I took this afternoon with my drone. You can't tell how windy it is because the drone is so stable, but take a look at the trees around the 4:30 mark.


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tool483
post Sep 25 2017, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(JSGolf @ Sep 25 2017, 05:57 PM) *
I'm on vacation in the Outer Banks. Here's some aerial footage I took this afternoon with my drone. You can't tell how windy it is because the drone is so stable, but take a look at the trees around the 4:30 mark.


hey great high quality drone footage. . thanks man

will you be there for the duration? Oceans will be interesting to watch. .


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JSGolf
post Sep 25 2017, 07:14 PM
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QUOTE(tool483 @ Sep 25 2017, 07:45 PM) *
hey great high quality drone footage. . thanks man

will you be there for the duration? Oceans will be interesting to watch. .


Thank you! Yes we will be here for the week. I will be taking more photos and video throughout (although probably no more drone until Thursday). The ocean right now is unlike anything I've seen in person. Picture of random guy who ignored the 7 bazillion red flags and no swimming signs is included for perspective of wave height.




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stretchct
post Sep 25 2017, 08:18 PM
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@JSG -nice pix and footage. Look forward to some more. Enjoy. Be safe.

Buoy 41002 S Hatteras has had sustained 35kt+ winds since 1:40am. Currently 41 kts with gusts to 52kts. Wave heights were up to 24 feet, now 19. Water temp 81. Storm has passed east of that buoy, though pressures are still falling.

Oregon inlet reporting 12.5 ft waves
Diamond Shoals 16 ft


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ryan Duff
post Sep 25 2017, 08:27 PM
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Either someone hacked NWS or someone is gonna get fired.

TJUA Radar Status message got changed earlier today. It's since been updated, but the previous version is viewable here. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=0

I saw a screenshot floating around twitter and thought it was a joke.

QUOTE
000
NOUS62 TJSJ 251947
FTMJUA

MESSAGE DATE: SEP 25 2017 19:47:00

TJUA (NEXRAD IN CAYEY, PR) WAS ABUSED BY MARIA. AS A RESULT THE
RADOME DIVORCED THE TOWER AND RAN AWAY WITH ONE DEPENDENT, THE
ANTENNA. RECONCILIATION WILL HOPEFULLY BE COMPLETED IN 3 TO 6
MONTHS. MARIA FLED THE SCENE HEADING NORTHWEST. SHE IS CONSIDERED
ARMED AND DANGEROUS--DO NOT ATTEMPT TO APPREHEND.


--------------------
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Qdeathstar
post Sep 25 2017, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Sep 25 2017, 09:27 PM) *
Either someone hacked NWS or someone is gonna get fired.

TJUA Radar Status message got changed earlier today. It's since been updated, but the previous version is viewable here. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=0

I saw a screenshot floating around twitter and thought it was a joke.



No harm done, why would you fire someone over a little harmless joke like that.


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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Ryan Duff
post Sep 25 2017, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 25 2017, 09:47 PM) *
No harm done, why would you fire someone over a little harmless joke like that.


Like in most jobs, there's a level of professionalism expected. Things like that don't go posted on public agency channels without repercussions. It is what it is, and I don't expect everyone to wrap their head around the concept.


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Burr@Work
post Sep 25 2017, 09:23 PM
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QUOTE(JSGolf @ Sep 25 2017, 08:14 PM) *
Thank you! Yes we will be here for the week. I will be taking more photos and video throughout (although probably no more drone until Thursday). The ocean right now is unlike anything I've seen in person. Picture of random guy who ignored the 7 bazillion red flags and no swimming signs is included for perspective of wave height.



Nicely done. Please keep the updates coming? What part of OBXare you visiting? We were in Salvo during the week of Harvey, when a little disturbance came up the coast, and we had some small surf and rip tide advisories. Can't imagine what those waves would feel like out there now...


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USCG AST
post Sep 25 2017, 10:01 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 25 2017, 09:47 PM) *
No harm done, why would you fire someone over a little harmless joke like that.

Just think of this: a storm is coming and you are warning everyone to leave or die. Then someone on Twitter pulls up what you wrote about Maria fleeing Northwest. You have now made the weather service not only a comical entity, but one which does not need to be taken seriously. Lives are therefore in jeapordy. There is nothing wrong with humor. There is when its a formal correspondence between a branch of government and the public with regards to serious damage following a catastrophic event.


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Qdeathstar
post Sep 25 2017, 10:11 PM
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Sep 25 2017, 11:01 PM) *
Just think of this: a storm is coming and you are warning everyone to leave or die. Then someone on Twitter pulls up what you wrote about Maria fleeing Northwest. You have now made the weather service not only a comical entity, but one which does not need to be taken seriously. Lives are therefore in jeapordy. There is nothing wrong with humor. There is when its a formal correspondence between a branch of government and the public with regards to serious damage following a catastrophic event.



This happened after the fact. Not when people are actively at risk. NWS needs to be able to engage people. This is just an example of out reach. On the other hand if you tell people to leave or die in drone monotone and the storm shifts 50 miles (as they do) and the storm ends up not being as bad as feared then you desensitized the public for no reason. "Fire them all they don't know what they are talking about" they say.

Give em a break... when something needs to be said in a serious tone, they'll say it. People will beleive them or won't. A joke about Maria tearing up a radar dish won't be the deciding factor.

QUOTE
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...LARGE HURRICANE MARIA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night
or Wednesday.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England. These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN





--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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TC1
post Sep 25 2017, 10:32 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Sep 25 2017, 09:27 PM) *
Either someone hacked NWS or someone is gonna get fired.

TJUA Radar Status message got changed earlier today. It's since been updated, but the previous version is viewable here. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=0

I saw a screenshot floating around twitter and thought it was a joke.

QUOTE
000
NOUS62 TJSJ 251947
FTMJUA

MESSAGE DATE: SEP 25 2017 19:47:00

TJUA (NEXRAD IN CAYEY, PR) WAS ABUSED BY MARIA. AS A RESULT THE
RADOME DIVORCED THE TOWER AND RAN AWAY WITH ONE DEPENDENT, THE
ANTENNA. RECONCILIATION WILL HOPEFULLY BE COMPLETED IN 3 TO 6
MONTHS. MARIA FLED THE SCENE HEADING NORTHWEST. SHE IS CONSIDERED
ARMED AND DANGEROUS--DO NOT ATTEMPT TO APPREHEND.



Irresponsible? Maybe. Did it give me a chuckle? Yep.


Here's the map for the 11 P.M. update...

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longislander
post Sep 25 2017, 10:34 PM
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Nice drone video - nice homes, are they all elevated? I can't even imagine owning a home there that wasn't elevated.
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TC1
post Sep 26 2017, 02:07 AM
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The 2 A.M. update...

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This post has been edited by TC1: Sep 26 2017, 04:05 AM
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TC1
post Sep 26 2017, 04:06 AM
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Fresh off the presses, the 5 A.M. update...

Attached Image


CODE
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Maria is feeling the effects of the cool sea surface temperatures
left in the wake of Hurricane Jose. Satellite imagery shows that
the convective pattern is gradually losing organization, with the
remaining convection in a cluster to the southeast of the center
and in bands well to the east of the center. In addition, the
aircraft-reported central pressure has risen to 970 mb. While there
have been no observations of hurricane-force winds from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
currently in the cyclone, it is likely that they still exist in
areas east of the center where the airplane has not yet sampled.
The initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 65 kt based
mainly on the rising central pressure since the last advisory.

The combination of the cool water and moderate shear should cause
Maria to gradually weaken during the forecast period, with the
system now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in less than 24 h.
Near the 120 h point, the cyclone is expected to merge with a
frontal system and become extratropical. The new intensity forecast
is an update of the previous advisory.

The initial motion remains 360/6, with Maria moving northward on the
western side of the subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level ridge
over the northeastern United States to the north of the cyclone is
likely to keep the motion slow for the next 36-48 h. After that,
the mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to move southward across
the northeastern United States and break down the subtropical
ridge. This should lead to Maria turning east-northeastward and
accelerating after 48 h. The track guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the
previous track until 120 h, where it is nudged a bit to the south.
The track is also close to the center of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast for the next 36-48 hours, and it is likely that some
direct impacts will occur along portions of the North Carolina coast
beginning later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected beginning later today, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of
the United States from Florida through southern New England. These
swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 32.9N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 33.7N 73.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 34.6N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 35.4N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 35.8N 71.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 37.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 41.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


This post has been edited by TC1: Sep 26 2017, 04:08 AM
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JSGolf
post Sep 26 2017, 08:48 AM
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QUOTE(Burr@Work @ Sep 25 2017, 10:23 PM) *
Nicely done. Please keep the updates coming? What part of OBXare you visiting? We were in Salvo during the week of Harvey, when a little disturbance came up the coast, and we had some small surf and rip tide advisories. Can't imagine what those waves would feel like out there now...


We are in Duck on the second-to-last row of houses about 1500 feet from the beach.

QUOTE(longislander @ Sep 25 2017, 11:34 PM) *
Nice drone video - nice homes, are they all elevated? I can't even imagine owning a home there that wasn't elevated.


Most of the houses are elevated. The one we are staying in is strangely not lol. The dunes are pretty high here... It would take at least a 20 foot surge to get over the top of them. It's actually not bad now... Intervals of clouds and sun with occasional drizzle. Wind is increasing.

Here are some pics I took with my phone this morning while walking the dog, as well as the UAV Forecast app screenshot





This post has been edited by JSGolf: Sep 26 2017, 08:50 AM


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stretchct
post Sep 26 2017, 01:00 PM
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Diamond Shoal near TS sustained with 19ft waves.
USCG Hatteras with TS force winds, 44kt gusts
Duck with 31kts gusts to 36kts.


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Sep 26 2017, 04:09 PM
Post #1118




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Adios, you misery creating hurricane. May your demise be hasty and your path always east.

QUOTE
000
WTNT45 KNHC 262033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/262033.shtml?
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Burr@Work
post Sep 27 2017, 06:29 AM
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QUOTE(JSGolf @ Sep 26 2017, 09:48 AM) *
We are in Duck on the second-to-last row of houses about 1500 feet from the beach.
Most of the houses are elevated. The one we are staying in is strangely not lol. The dunes are pretty high here... It would take at least a 20 foot surge to get over the top of them. It's actually not bad now... Intervals of clouds and sun with occasional drizzle. Wind is increasing.


I have visited Corolla in previous summers. Gorgeous beaches.

Hopefully you can enjoy flying a kite today... wink.gif


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Burr@Work
post Sep 27 2017, 06:30 AM
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Can't cover all the destruction from the tropical weather... came across this on twitter



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