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> Major Hurricane Maria, 9/20 5PM AST CAT 5 - 175 MPH - 908MB - Movement: WNW @ 10MPH
phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 11:33 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 15 2017, 12:30 AM) *
00Z GFS slams Maria right into the Leeward island, Guadalupe, etc and then pummels Puerto Rico with a pretty potent hurricane.

Around 940mb.
[attachment=330501:940.png]

Then it's a matter of where does it go from here as it's strengthening:


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:35 PM
Post #22




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 14 2017, 11:33 PM) *
Then it's a matter of where does it go from here as it's strengthening:



Yea.

It΄s tracking that far NW because of the weakness that is kept open by decaying Jose south of Long Island.

If Jose dissipates faster or moves out sooner, this one may track farther SW.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:38 PM
Post #23




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The way this run is going, with the ridge parked right over the northeast CONUS and SE Canada and extending to the SE towards Bermuda, this ciclone may very well end up going to the Carolinas or in and around there.



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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 11:43 PM
Post #24




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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 15 2017, 12:38 AM) *
The way this run is going, with the ridge parked right over the northeast CONUS and SE Canada and extending to the SE towards Bermuda, this ciclone may very well end up going to the Carolinas or in and around there.

Looks like it may go past the Carolinas there, oh boy.....


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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snowlover2
post Sep 14 2017, 11:45 PM
Post #25




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Looks like the same track as Jose.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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phillyfan
post Sep 14 2017, 11:45 PM
Post #26




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Double Whammy GFS run here:


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:49 PM
Post #27




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 14 2017, 11:43 PM) *
Looks like it may go past the Carolinas there, oh boy.....



QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 14 2017, 11:45 PM) *
Looks like the same track as Jose.



Crazyy... blink.gif

Talk about a strong persistent frozen um place ridge...


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Undertakerson
post Sep 15 2017, 05:40 AM
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Attached Image


Attached Image


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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 11:34 AM
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216 - starting to turn northwest.
Attached Image


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# of T-Storm Warnings:

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 11:35 AM
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222
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# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 11:37 AM
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228

Attached Image


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# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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phillyfan
post Sep 15 2017, 11:38 AM
Post #32




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 15 2017, 12:37 PM) *
228

Attached Image

Looks like it's coming in again on this run


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 11:38 AM
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234
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# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 11:41 AM
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240
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# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 11:43 AM
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252

Attached Image


264

Attached Image


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# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Undertakerson
post Sep 15 2017, 11:46 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 15 2017, 12:43 PM) *
252

Attached Image


264

Attached Image

Loses 38mb in just 12hrs as it approaches the coast.? blink.gif


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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 01:49 PM
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12z Euro @216 - looks like 96L and Jose are on a collision course.

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# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Sep 15 2017, 01:56 PM
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240
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# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Undertakerson
post Sep 15 2017, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 15 2017, 02:49 PM) *
12z Euro @216 - looks like 96L and Jose are on a collision course.

Attached Image

One of the whackiest runs from the King that I've ever seen. I thought too that they would merge before Jose jumped back north. Guess he didn't like "Marias" looks?


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Undertakerson
post Sep 15 2017, 04:40 PM
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Wonder how much QPF this one unleashes on W Puerto Rico in the Euro depiction? Looks to be gaining strength just S of that island and skirts between PR and DR/Haiti


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