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> Major Hurricane Lee, 9/25 11PM AST - 90 MPH - 980mb - Movement: ESE @ 13mph
stretchct
post Sep 26 2017, 01:02 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Lee still forecast for 110mph

CODE
urricane Lee Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images.  Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 kt.  Further strengthening is possible for the next day
or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear.  Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so.  The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease.  The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt.  The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow.  There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread.  The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 29.9N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  27/0000Z 30.0N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  27/1200Z 30.6N  56.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  28/0000Z 31.7N  56.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  28/1200Z 33.3N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  30/1200Z 46.0N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Typesylvester
post Sep 26 2017, 03:57 PM
Post #22




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He's forecasted to become a major hurricane by tomorrow according to NHC.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 26 2017, 04:43 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





It would be so interesting to get a major hurricane out of tiny Lee.

And yet another major hurricane for the season.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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stretchct
post Sep 27 2017, 09:08 AM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Newtown, CT
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NHC now mentioning possibility of Lee being a major soon. Currently 1kt away.

QUOTE
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lee has been
undergoing some cloud structural changes during the past several
hours. The eye has nearly doubled in size to 30 miles in
diameter, the central pressure indicated in the CIMSS Objective
Dvorak technique has increased a few millibars, and an earlier 2147
UTC WindSAT overpass revealed a developing outer ring surrounding
the partially opened inner core. These aforementioned cloud pattern
alterations arguably point to an undergoing eyewall replacement
cycle, and the possibility of intensification in the short term.
The initial intensity of 95 kt remains above the subjective
T-numbers, and is close to the CIMSS ADT estimated intensity. The
official intensity forecast reflects the possibility of Lee becoming
a major hurricane later today before a weakening trend commences by
early Wednesday. The global models and the FSU Cyclone Phase
Evolution product agree that Lee will maintain tropical
characteristics through day 3. Afterward, the guidance shows the
cyclone quickly absorbed by an existing larger baroclinic
system.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8
kt. Lee should turn gradually northwestward later today, and
generally northward on Thursday as the cyclone is steered by the
southwestern peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge over the
east-central Atlantic. Through the remaining portion of the
forecast, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward within the
strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow and ultimately dissipate in
72 hours. The model guidance suite continues to trend toward the
west through the 36-hour period, and the official forecast follows
suit. Beyond that time frame, the forecast is a little faster than
the previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected
Consensus technique model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 30.2N 56.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 30.8N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 32.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 37.8N 53.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 46.3N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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risingriver
post Sep 27 2017, 01:15 PM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Fredericksburg, VA
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Could have been already once before on his loop and could well be now in actuality as the strength reports are all satellite based.

Lee's a fascinating little guy. Glad he is mostly harmless.
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Typesylvester
post Sep 27 2017, 01:52 PM
Post #26




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 186
Joined: 19-August 08
Member No.: 15,393





QUOTE(risingriver @ Sep 27 2017, 02:15 PM) *
Could have been already once before on his loop and could well be now in actuality as the strength reports are all satellite based.

Lee's a fascinating little guy. Glad he is mostly harmless.


Now a major hurricane. 5th major hurricane of the season.

CODE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

After an eyewall replacement overnight, satellite images indicate
that a larger clear eye has formed, with the coldest cloud-top
temperatures seen to date observed with the cyclone. While
subjective Dvorak estimates have been fluctuating between 90-102 kt,
the latest objective estimate is 102 kt, and a 1050 UTC AMSU
estimate from CIMSS is 104 kt. A blend of these data gives an
initial wind speed of 100 kt, making Lee the 5th major hurricane of
the 2017 Atlantic season. A gradual decrease in water temperatures
should start a weakening trend within 12-24 hours, with a faster
weakening forecast on Thursday and Friday as Lee enters a high-shear
environment. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and
the latest forecast is very close to the previous one.

Lee has turned northwestward, or 315/6. The hurricane should turn
to the north on Thursday and northeast by Friday while it moves
around the subtropical ridge. Lee is expected to move quite quickly
to the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it accelerates in
mid-latitude flow. No significant changes were made to the previous
track, and the new forecast lies between the ECMWF and the HFIP
corrected-consensus model. Around day 3, the cyclone should be
close to a cold front, but most of the models still show it separate
from that feature. By day 4, all of the guidance have the system
decaying into a trough, and that is the solution provided below.

An ASCAT pass from this morning indicated that Lee has grown in
size, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified to
reflect that change.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 30.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 31.4N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 33.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 35.5N 55.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 46.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


This post has been edited by Typesylvester: Sep 27 2017, 02:00 PM
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snowcrazed71
post Sep 27 2017, 02:31 PM
Post #27




Rank: Tornado
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Member No.: 23,831





So, should we change the title of the post to major hurricane Lee now?
QUOTE(Typesylvester @ Sep 27 2017, 02:52 PM) *
Now a major hurricane. 5th major hurricane of the season.

CODE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

After an eyewall replacement overnight, satellite images indicate
that a larger clear eye has formed, with the coldest cloud-top
temperatures seen to date observed with the cyclone. While
subjective Dvorak estimates have been fluctuating between 90-102 kt,
the latest objective estimate is 102 kt, and a 1050 UTC AMSU
estimate from CIMSS is 104 kt. A blend of these data gives an
initial wind speed of 100 kt, making Lee the 5th major hurricane of
the 2017 Atlantic season. A gradual decrease in water temperatures
should start a weakening trend within 12-24 hours, with a faster
weakening forecast on Thursday and Friday as Lee enters a high-shear
environment. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and
the latest forecast is very close to the previous one.

Lee has turned northwestward, or 315/6. The hurricane should turn
to the north on Thursday and northeast by Friday while it moves
around the subtropical ridge. Lee is expected to move quite quickly
to the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it accelerates in
mid-latitude flow. No significant changes were made to the previous
track, and the new forecast lies between the ECMWF and the HFIP
corrected-consensus model. Around day 3, the cyclone should be
close to a cold front, but most of the models still show it separate
from that feature. By day 4, all of the guidance have the system
decaying into a trough, and that is the solution provided below.

An ASCAT pass from this morning indicated that Lee has grown in
size, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified to
reflect that change.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 30.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 31.4N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 33.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 35.5N 55.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 46.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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