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> Invest 98L, Formation SR Low % LR Low %
Phased Vort
post Sep 27 2017, 04:05 PM
Post #1




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New invest here folks.

This one is related to the tropical development that I have been talking about for the SE CONUS / Florida area since about 10 8 days ago.

QUOTE
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2017, LO, O, 2017092212, 9999999999, , , , , 4, METWATCH, , AL982017


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Sep 27 2017, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on
Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba
and the Straits for Florida during the next day or so. Some
development of this system is possible when it moves near the
Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday
before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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LUCC
post Sep 28 2017, 08:44 AM
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Doubled the percentages.....

QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas is associated
with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A
weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
while it moves northward across Cuba and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for development before upper-level winds
become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the
Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Stewart



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Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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queen292
post Sep 28 2017, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Sep 28 2017, 09:44 AM) *
Doubled the percentages.....


I'm leaving on a 3 day cruise to the Bahamas tomorrow from Miami. A last minute trip due to Irma messing with the original trip to the Keys. Guess I should pack the Dramamine?


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Phased Vort
post Sep 28 2017, 12:30 PM
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QUOTE(queen292 @ Sep 28 2017, 09:46 AM) *
I'm leaving on a 3 day cruise to the Bahamas tomorrow from Miami. A last minute trip due to Irma messing with the original trip to the Keys. Guess I should pack the Dramamine?



I would take all the necessary precautions indeed.

Does not look like this will be a potent storm, if it gets named, Nate should be a minimum tropical storm, maybe a medium strength one.

It should form Saturday or Sunday to the NNW of the northern Bahamas, but in any case, the weather should be unsettled with rain and some wind as this trof of low pressure tries to form the surface low and possibly Nate, or tropical depression.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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risingriver
post Sep 28 2017, 01:20 PM
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Nuisance storm compared to recent ones, it appears.

I'm more interested in what comes after if anything tropical can spin up in the western Carribean and move into the Gulf, but not this far east. There is a huge amount of untapped potential tropical cyclone energy south of Cuba and in the NW Carribean just waiting for a tropica wave to come through.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 28 2017, 01:27 PM
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QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the Cayman
Islands northward across Cuba to the Florida Straits is associated
with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A
weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
while it moves northward across the Florida Straits to near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for development before
upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless
of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida
Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Oct 2 2017, 10:48 AM
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I did not understand why NHC initiated two invests, and both were pointing to the same location and system.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Oct 2 2017, 10:50 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Sep 28 2017, 01:20 PM) *
Nuisance storm compared to recent ones, it appears.

I'm more interested in what comes after if anything tropical can spin up in the western Carribean and move into the Gulf, but not this far east. There is a huge amount of untapped potential tropical cyclone energy south of Cuba and in the NW Carribean just waiting for a tropica wave to come through.


That system seems to be the one that NHC says may develop by the end of this week or into the weekend.

Itīs being discussed in the Caribbean thread.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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