 Hurricane Nate, 10/7 2PM EDT - 90 MPH - 981MB - Movement: NNW @ 23MPH |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Current Tropical Season Weather  |
 Oct 8 2017, 01:36 PM
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#361
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 1,691 Joined: 31-May 08 From: Monclova, Ohio Member No.: 14,982  |
Sure isn't wasting it's time incorporating itself into the upper air pattern.
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Oct 8 2017, 03:26 PM
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#362
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 32,884 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 |
QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 8 2017, 02:28 PM)  Hoping Nate's remnants plus the front can deliver some rain east of the Blue Ridge in Virginia. We desperately need it. Rocks in my river were wearing sunscreen yesterday when I was out fishing.   If I use that metaphor, do I have to pay royalties? 
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Oct 8 2017, 07:14 PM
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#363
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 22,676 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
 
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 2018 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°) Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°) Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18) Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18) Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17) Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) |
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Oct 8 2017, 07:45 PM
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#364
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 22,676 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
21 tornado reports as off 8:44PM.
 Usually can at least double the amount of reports after everything is surveyed.
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 2018 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°) Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°) Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18) Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18) Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17) Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) |
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Oct 9 2017, 07:19 AM
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#365
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 7,271 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Morgantown, WV Member No.: 6,288 |
Well Nate provided me with a valuable lesson on WV topography. Unlike Missouri, SW flow aloft with southerly surface flows means downslope imby. Despite Nate tracking almost directly overhead and all available model guidance painting 2"+ ... I have only received ~0.65" of precip and for all practical purposes the rain has ended.
We needed the rain here ... This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Oct 9 2017, 07:19 AM -------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.
We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others. |
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Oct 9 2017, 08:34 AM
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#366
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,987 Joined: 1-February 11 Member No.: 25,332 |
QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Oct 9 2017, 08:19 AM) Well Nate provided me with a valuable lesson on WV topography. Unlike Missouri, SW flow aloft with southerly surface flows means downslope imby. Despite Nate tracking almost directly overhead and all available model guidance painting 2"+ ... I have only received ~0.65" of precip and for all practical purposes the rain has ended. We needed the rain here ... Windward and leeward are terms that will now be giant terms in your weather patterns.
-------------------- Blue Ridge Bouncer
Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die. |
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Oct 12 2017, 10:19 AM
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#367
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 7,271 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Morgantown, WV Member No.: 6,288 |
QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 8 2017, 08:45 PM) 21 tornado reports as off 8:44PM. Usually can at least double the amount of reports after everything is surveyed.To my knowledge, there were 9 of confirmed tornadoes: EF1 in Blacksburg, VA forecast area 7 tornadoes in the Greenville/Spartanburg, SC forecast area including 2 EF0s, 3 EF1s, and 2 EF2s EF1 in Columbia, SC forecast area including some mesoscale analysis/ contextual information -------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.
We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others. |
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Oct 12 2017, 10:27 AM
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#368
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 7,271 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Morgantown, WV Member No.: 6,288 |
QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Oct 9 2017, 09:34 AM) Windward and leeward are terms that will now be giant terms in your weather patterns. Yup, I prefer upslope/downslope, but the point is the same. I got burned pretty bad forecasting this event. My boss, who's a hydrologist, was relying on a big event to get the local streams flowing for an ongoing research project. Oh well, the best/fastest way to learn is by screwing up big time. -------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.
We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others. |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 18th October 2018 - 02:06 AM |